If you're here for fireworks and shootouts, you might not like this card. Week 6 of the college football season, for me, isn't about chaos or points flying across the screen. Rather, it's about patience, trenches and trusting the numbers when they say "slow."
I've got nothing but unders and one ground-and-pound favorite that chews up clock like it's a hobby. Ugly football might not trend on social media, but it can still make your bankroll smile ... and this card has slugfests written all over it.
This week, give me punts, missed field goals and turnovers on downs.
All odds by ESPN BET
Duke Blue Devils at California Golden Bears
Pick: UNDER 56.5 and Cal +2.5 (+105)
This total feels inflated based on what could happen rather than what's most likely. Duke's offense is explosive and balanced, but this game projects more like a slow, deliberate chess match than a track meet.
Both teams sit in the bottom half in plays per game and prefer slower, more controlled football. That slower tempo alone can keep a total under unless both sides suddenly find elite efficiency. Duke might rank in the top 25 in total offense for yardage, but nearly a third of its touchdowns came in Week 0 against Elon. Plus, the Blue Devils will have to work harder against Cal's secondary, which grades as top three in PFF, built to limit explosive plays and force long, time-consuming drives.
Cal, meanwhile, just isn't wired for shootouts. The Bears rank bottom 30 in offensive EPA and remain a negative EPA/pass team, which means efficiency or explosiveness simply isn't there. QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele completes only 40% of his deep shots, and lead back Kendrick Raphael has just nine runs of 10-plus yards all season, four of which came against Texas Southern.
This is shaping up to be a turtle race, not a sprint. Duke should lean on the run against a bottom-tier Cal rush defense, while Cal can limit scoring inside the 20. Barring turnover chaos, this total looks too high, and the underdog is live.
Army at UAB
Pick: Army -6.5
This game looks like it was built in a lab for the Black Knights. UAB has already been gashed by Navy for nearly 300 rushing yards and now it faces another ground-heavy attack that eats clock and shortens games. Like ... literally shortens games.
Army is averaging over 37 minutes of possessions on the road, which means opponents are left with scraps. It's like showing up to the buffet late and realizing the trays are already empty.
That matters because UAB's strength is Jalen Kitna and the passing game. He's been efficient but he cannot score from the sideline. Army controls 62% of possessions overall away from home and a ridiculous 75% in the second half. That is the kind of stranglehold that wears out defenses and tilts games late.
UAB's defense allows touchdowns on nearly 80% of opponents' red zone trips, so Army's long drives are more likely to end in seven than three.
This is also a great spot to back Army on the second-half line. Its style becomes more suffocating as the game goes on while UAB fades at home.
And if UAB happens to score first, that is not a reason to panic. It is the perfect time to look for Army live at a discounted number. Its style does not change, its edge does not vanish, and the value only improves.
Texas State at Arkansas State
Pick: UNDER 63.5
Sometimes a football game feels like fast food. A lot gets served, but not much of it is quality. That's Arkansas State's offense. It is top 15 in plays per game, but bottom-five in yards per play. High volume and low efficiency, which means it looks busy on the stat sheet, but it rarely turns into points.
The Red Wolves are sitting at 1-4 but, to be fair, three of its past four games have been on the road, and the one FBS home game in that stretch was against Iowa State, a top-tier Big 12 defense. That's not an easy draw for any Sun Belt team, so there's a chance we haven't seen their full potential yet until they prove this is still a low-ceiling offense.
Texas State, on the other hand, has a legitimate offense on paper built through the run game. That means chunk plays, yes, but also sustained, clock-draining drives. The eye-catching stat is Lincoln Pare's 14 explosive runs, but nine of them came in Week 1 against Eastern Michigan. Since then, he's been far less explosive each week, grinding instead of breaking long gains consistently.
Now, against an Arkansas State defense that struggles in coverage and tackling, the Bobcats should be able to move the ball, but the question is whether the Red Wolves can do enough to push this total into the 60s.
With such little info for Arkansas State's potential at home, last season could offer a hint. In 2024, its red zone defense at home was far from effective at limiting touchdowns, unlike on the road where it was letting every offense walk on through. This year's group looks more like the same. I wanted to make a case for the home dog, but I'll take the under.
Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State
Pick: 1Q UNDER 9.5 (+100)
This has been one of my favorite wagers since the 2023 season. If there has ever been a spot to bet on a slow start, this is it. Through three FBS games, Ohio State has scored just a single field goal in the first quarter this season, while Minnesota has scored ... zero points.
That's not a small sample fluke, it's who it is. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in first-quarter scoring and both are near the top in first-quarter defense. Ohio State hasn't allowed a point in the opening frame this season, while Minnesota's defense has given up two touchdowns in three opening quarters.
Stylistically, this sets up perfectly for a low-scoring script. The Buckeyes offense builds momentum as the game goes on, but they're methodical out of the gate, leaning on a defense that has been suffocating in the red zone. Minnesota wants to establish the run, but its rushing EPA is outside the top 100, not ideal against a top-25 Buckeyes front. Add two strong pass rushes and top-40 coverage units and stalled drives feel inevitable.
Given all of that, it's hard to see a game that starts at a crawl suddenly turning into a track meet. Barring anything flukey, this script stays sleepy, more lullaby than Buckeye blitz. Betting one quarter under 9.5 at +100 is a calculated risk for something that should end at worst 7-0.