The longest regular season in WNBA history could be followed by the longest WNBA Finals. For the first time, the series is a best-of-seven, and the teams that have played the best so far in the postseason have advanced for a high-powered matchup between the No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces and the No. 4 Phoenix Mercury.
The Aces will host Game 1 on Friday (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). As the higher seed, Las Vegas will also host Game 2 and, if necessary, Games 5 and 7.
The Mercury are the first team in WNBA history to reach the Finals twice in a five-year span without a single carryover player. Their rebuild this season brought in Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and DeWanna Bonner, among others.
The Aces, meanwhile, have five players who have been with Las Vegas since at least 2022, including No. 1 picks A'ja Wilson (2018) and Jackie Young (2019). The Aces revamped around their core, which includes Chelsea Gray, but they have more experience playing together than the Mercury.
Will that matter at this point in the season? Although much of the focus in the playoffs thus far has been on officiating, injuries and general player discontent as the collective bargaining agreement deadline looms at the end of this month, the actual basketball has been scintillating at times. Here is how ESPN's experts see the WNBA Finals playing out.
Las Vegas Aces
ESPN BET odds: -135
Projected starters (playoff stats): G Chelsea Gray (10.9 PPG, 7.3 APG, 2.3 SPG), G Jackie Young (20.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.8 RPG), F Kierstan Bell (2.4 PPG), F NaLyssa Smith (8.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG), C A'ja Wilson (26.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.8 BPG, 2.6 SPG)
Insider intel: In some ways, the Aces' biggest opponent in the Finals remains themselves. Wilson lamented after Game 5 of the semifinals that their losses to the Fever were especially frustrating "because it felt like the losses were self-inflicted. It felt like we had control over it and we just did not show up. And those hurt more so than like, 'Dang, they just hit more shots than us.'
"Emotionally, it was tough only because you feel it. When you know you can be better and you lose, that's the worst type of feeling you can have, that sense of regret."
Even at halftime of the deciding game, coach Becky Hammon lit into her team after Las Vegas allowed 45 first-half points. Indiana's pace hardly slowed after the break as the Aces won despite allowing their most points in a playoff game since 2022.
"I love that we hit some shots tonight and scored 107 points, but it's not the way this team has traditionally won games," Hammon said. "Our defense has to get better. Our rebounding has to get better. We have to learn from this series, and we have to get better -- quickly."
One thing Las Vegas might not have to worry about: the health of guard Chelsea Gray, who briefly left Game 5 after rolling her ankle. Gray returned after having the ankle retaped, and when asked if she had concerns about her availability for Game 1, said, "None at all." -- Kevin Pelton
Why they can win the WNBA title: The quickest answer is they have the best overall player and post player in Wilson, the best multipurpose guard in Young and the best pure point guard in Gray. They've won two titles together and have helped bring along Smith, a younger post player who has tapped into her greater potential at times during these playoffs.
The Aces' big three are going to come through virtually all the time; Wilson, Young and Gray have proved that. If Smith can be solid and the Aces get good contributions from their bench, particularly from Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans, they have the offensive firepower and the defensive resilience to win the title. Even if they didn't replace Kelsey Plum with a guard who has her scoring ability -- Loyd has had that in the past but that hasn't been her role this season -- they still have a lot of talent. -- Michael Voepel
If they win, the Finals MVP will be: Gray got this honor in 2022, then Wilson won it in 2023. But there's only one answer now: Wilson, who put the team on her back during its amazing 16-game winning streak to end the regular season. She has been playing at another level, even for her, during the past two months. She is irreplaceable for everything the Aces do, offensively and defensively. -- Voepel
If they lose, it will be because ... They don't get enough scoring from players besides Wilson and Young.
Before this year's Aces, only one team in league history with at least eight playoff games had seen more than half of its scoring come from only two players: the 2008 San Antonio Silver Stars, with Becky Hammon and Sophia Young-Malcolm combining for 50% of their postseason points. Heading into this series, 53% of Las Vegas' playoff scoring has come from Wilson and Young, who were the first teammates ever to each score 30 points in the same playoff game during Game 5 of the semifinals.
That said, we did see the Aces' other scoring threats in overtime of Tuesday's win. After Wilson and Young combined for 61 of their 86 points in regulation, they had none of Las Vegas' first 15 in OT. Gray, a proven playoff shotmaker, and Loyd, a two-time WNBA champion, stepped up to lead the Aces to the Finals, combining for 13 of the team's 21 overtime points. They will need to continue that production against Phoenix. -- Pelton
Player ready for the Finals spotlight: Smith and Evans might be X factors. Evans was part of Chicago's 2021 championship team as a rookie, although she didn't play a lot. She is in a bigger role now at age 27 and with four seasons of WNBA experience. Evans averaged 6.6 points and 2.2 assists this year during the regular season, but those numbers have risen to 7.4 and 3.0 in the postseason.
After being the No. 2 draft pick in 2022 and spending her first three seasons in Indiana, Smith was traded to Dallas this year. That didn't work, so she was dealt to Las Vegas on June 30. She has talked about how the Aces' players and staff have improved her confidence, and Las Vegas needs her in this series -- especially with rebounding. Smith averaged 8.2 points and 5.3 rebounds in her 27 regular-season games with the Aces this year, and is at 8.9 and 4.6 in the playoffs. -- Voepel
Phoenix Mercury
ESPN BET odds: +115
Projected starters (playoff stats): G Monique Akoa Makani (5.7 PPG, 2.6 APG), G Kahleah Copper (15.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG), F Satou Sabally (17.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG), F Alyssa Thomas (18.6 PPG, 9.1 APG, 8.4 RPG)
Insider intel: The Mercury faced the defending champion New York Liberty in the first round and the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals. Phoenix embraced the underdog role from the start of the playoffs.
"No one has had expectations for us except ourselves," coach Nate Tibbetts said after Phoenix clinched its spot in the Finals. "The pride and the togetherness for such a new group, it's pretty impressive."
Entering the season, the Mercury returned just two players from their 2024 roster, and there were questions about how Phoenix's depth outside of its big three would perform. Then, injuries hit. Copper missed the first 11 games of the season as she recovered from knee surgery. Thomas (left calf) missed five games between May and June, and Sabally (right ankle) was out for two weeks in July.
With about a month left in the regular season, Sabally told ESPN she thought her team -- which was finally healthy -- was playing at about 80% of its capability. And now?
"I think we are [playing] at 99%," said Sabally, whose Mercury became the fourth team in WNBA history to eliminate both teams that participated in the previous year's Finals within a single postseason. "Winning it, proving it, then I'll say we're at 100%." -- Kendra Andrews
Why they can win the WNBA title: The Mercury have had the far more impressive playoff run thus far. Granted they benefited from injuries to opposing stars Breanna Stewart (badly limited in Game 2 of the first round) and Napheesa Collier (missed the series-deciding Game 4), the Mercury have taken care of business against two far stronger opponents than either team the Aces have faced.
Las Vegas is the first team in the current WNBA playoff format, adopted in 2022, not to face a top-four seed en route to the Finals. Yet the Aces still went the distance in both rounds, needing a missed shot at the buzzer from the Storm and overtime against the shorthanded Fever to get here. There is no question Phoenix comes in hotter. -- Pelton
If they win, the Finals MVP will be: Satou Sabally. Because of her versatility, length and deep shooting range, Sabally is at times unguardable. Las Vegas doesn't have an obvious matchup for her. Almost no team does. At 6-foot-4, Sabally has a distinct size advantage over Young and Loyd, and Smith isn't comfortable defending on the perimeter. Sabally's ability to shoot 3-pointers (34.0% in the playoffs) and get to the free throw line (5.9 FTA per game, third in the postseason) make her a threat anywhere on the court.
It's no coincidence that Sabally scored 24, 23 and 21 points in the three Phoenix wins against Minnesota and just 10 in the opening game loss. Thomas is the model of production and consistency, so the Mercury know what they are getting from their best player. Sabally is the one who tips the scales for Phoenix. If she is dialed in and playing to her strengths, Sabally will be the difference-maker in a Mercury championship. -- Charlie Creme
If they lose, it will be because ... They didn't bring the defense that beat the Lynx to the Finals.
Phoenix's defense was good in the regular season and has gone to a higher level in the playoffs. The Mercury lead the postseason in opponents' points per play, points per 100 possessions and 3-point percentage. One of the keys to the Mercury's win over Minnesota was limiting the best 3-point shooting team in the WNBA to 29.5% in the four games.
However, in the three wins that Las Vegas had against the Mercury in the regular season, the Aces shot a better percentage and scored more points than Phoenix otherwise allowed. The Mercury's defense wasn't as good against the Aces when Wilson was on the court (she missed their first meeting, a six-point Mercury win). In their most recent meeting on Aug. 21, the Las Vegas defense excelled, holding Phoenix to its lowest point total of the season (61). -- Creme
Player ready for the Finals spotlight: This time a year ago, Sami Whitcomb played just four total minutes in the Storm's first-round sweep by the Aces. Coming off a year in which she shot a career-low 29% on 3s at age 36, it looked like she had maybe reached the end of the line when she arrived in Phoenix. Instead, Whitcomb has once again emerged as one of the WNBA's most dangerous shooters, hitting a team-high 86 3-pointers -- including the shot that forced overtime in the Game 2 win at Minnesota.
Whitcomb missed the 2020 Finals to quarantine in Australia ahead of the birth of her first son, but in 2018, she actually finished multiple games on the court instead of All-Star Loyd as Seattle won that year's title. Whitcomb had six points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 as the Storm finished off a sweep of the Mystics. -- Pelton
WNBA Finals picks
Andrews: Phoenix in 7. The Mercury have been one of the most consistent teams in these playoffs, but everything was turned up a notch since halftime of Game 2 against Minnesota in the semifinals. Phoenix looks like a well-oiled machine that's executing the small things that get you a championship.
Creme: Las Vegas in 7. I can't imagine this being a short series. The games will be close and the series will have numerous turning points. My first thought is that the series will go the distance. My second thought is that once it gets to a seventh game, don't bet against Wilson, who has scored 38 and 35 points in two series-deciding games in these playoffs already.
Pelton: Phoenix in 7. To beat an elite opponent, I think the Aces will need to be more disciplined defensively than they've shown so far in the playoffs. Las Vegas certainly might get there, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Alexa Philippou: Las Vegas in 7. There's no doubt Phoenix has been stellar these playoffs, but I'm hard-pressed to pick against Wilson and Young with the way they are playing. Between the pair's dominance and the Finals experience the Aces boast between Becky Hammon at the helm plus Gray and Loyd on the floor, they will simply find a way -- even though they didn't look invincible in earlier rounds.
Voepel: Las Vegas in 7: Having picked the Aces from the start of the playoffs, I will ride this out. This pick is not about shortchanging the Mercury, who impressively knocked out last year's finalists. It's about the strength of Las Vegas' trio of Wilson, Young and Gray going for their third title as a unit.