Week 5 of the college football season has a great slate of games, and this is one of them. Two teams, different problems; Alabama can't run the ball and Georgia can't cover the pass.
When strengths and weaknesses collide like this, you don't just get a heavyweight SEC matchup, you get volatility, fireworks and a betting line worth digging into.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 17 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Line: Georgia -3.5
Money line: Georgia (-150), Alabama (+130)
Over/Under: 52.5 (O -115, U -105)
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Georgia is one of three teams to be undefeated but not cover the spread in any game (Penn State, Louisville).
Georgia is 4-13 ATS since the start of last season; tied for second worst among Power 4 teams over that span (only Oklahoma State is worse at 3-12 ATS).
The Bulldogs are 2-12 ATS as a favorite over that span, worst in FBS (min. 10 games).
Kalen DeBoer is 8-3 outright and 9-2 ATS as an underdog in his career (1-0 at Alabama). DeBoer's 9-2 record ATS is second best as an underdog by a head coach since the FCS/FBS split in 1978 (Ray Perkins 10-2 ATS).
Alabama is 7-3 ATS as an underdog since 2008, third best in FBS (JMU and Ohio State are better).
Alabama is 7-13 ATS on the road over the past five seasons, which ranks tied for 129th out of 136 FBS teams over span.
The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS against Georgia since 2020, which is tied for best against UGA among SEC teams (Kentucky also 4-1 ATS).
Alabama is explosive through the air, soft in the trenches
Through three weeks, Alabama has carved out a clear identity: this team is powered by its passing attack. Ty Simpson has been near flawless, throwing for 862 yards with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. The Tide's offense is averaging 335 passing yards per game at 9.5 yards per attempt, ranking in the top 10 in passing success rate.
Simpson's connection with Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard has given Alabama a true vertical threat, with explosive plays stretching defenses and touchdowns piling up in the red zone. For all the preseason questions about this offense, it has delivered efficiency, explosiveness and mistake-free football.
The problem lies in the trenches. Alabama's run game has been almost nonexistent, producing just 124 yards per game. Kevin Riley is the closest thing to a lead back, but there's no consistent ground threat.
Defensively, the issues are more glaring. Against Florida State in the opener, the Tide surrendered 230 rushing yards and looked overmatched at the line of scrimmage. PFF grades back it up: Alabama sits top 30 in run defense, but 93rd in tackling. The unit gets into position but can't finish plays. That's a dangerous flaw heading into SEC play.
The Tide are also generating very little pressure up front. Without sacks, quarterbacks are operating too cleanly. Alabama's ceiling is high because of its passing game, but the lack of balance and soft play in the trenches make it a volatile ride.
Georgia playing ground-and-pound control, but the secondary is full of cracks
The Bulldogs are a team built on physicality and time of possession, averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game, having already scored 10 touchdowns on the ground. Nate Frazier and Dwight Phillips Jr. headline a deep backfield, and quarterback Gunner Stockton adds mobility with three rushing scores of his own. This run-first approach allows Georgia to dictate, wear down defenses and keep opposing offenses on the sideline.
It's classic Bulldogs football: steady, efficient and designed to control the flow of the game.
Defensively, the run defense remains a strength. It is top 15 against the run, with the fifth-best tackling unit in the country. That fundamental soundness shows up on tape, where missed tackles are rare and backs struggle to break into the second level. Against most opponents, Georgia can shut down rushing attacks and force one-dimensional play. That could help when the Crimson Tide are already a one-dimensional offense.
The cracks appear in the secondary. Georgia's coverage unit was exposed by Tennessee with over 370 passing yards in an overtime shootout, and the advanced metrics match the eye test: Georgia struggles against explosive passing offenses.
Compounding the issue, the Bulldogs aren't generating pressure up front, with just three sacks and a bottom-five national pass-rush grade.
The result is a team that can bully opponents on the ground and win with control, but one that is vulnerable to quarterbacks who get time to throw. It's a dangerous trade-off against Alabama's vertical passing game.
Betting consideration: OVER 52.5
When two teams bring glaring defensive weaknesses into a matchup, the total deserves a closer look.
Start with the red zone. Alabama's defense has faced three opponent trips and all three ended in touchdowns. Georgia has been a touch better, but still allowed three touchdowns on five chances. That means drives aren't stalling into field goals, they're finishing with six points.
Efficiency inside the 20 is a key driver for overs, and both units are vulnerable.
The lack of a pass rush is another major factor. Alabama graded 127th by PFF in pass rushing, with only five sacks, while Georgia sits at 125th, with just three. With both defensive lines failing to generate heat, quarterbacks will operate clean pockets.
Matchups also tilt toward points. Alabama's top-10 passing success rate draws Georgia's 94th-ranked coverage unit, creating explosive play potential. On the other side, Georgia's rushing efficiency meets an Alabama rushing defense that was exposed by Florida State. The Bulldogs' ground game should produce steady big-time gains.
I see Georgia putting points on Alabama the way Florida State did, but their defense won't be able to slow the Tide's passing game. That's why the over has the most value here.
Georgia -3.5 is also worth consideration as Alabama's road pattern is hard to ignore. They leave Tuscaloosa, get pushed around in the trenches, lose time of possession, and bleed yards on third down. Georgia's physical run game is built to repeat that script.
Still, the best bet is on points. Two flawed defenses, two clean paths to scoring and no pass rush in sight. I'll stick with the OVER 52.5, because this one's shaping up to be the Score Every Chance edition.