For better or worse, the modern era of NFL preseason favorites has been defined by dynasties. For eight of the nine seasons, from 2016 through 2024, the preseason Super Bowl favorite was either the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era New England Patriots or the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era Kansas City Chiefs. Contrast that with the 2015 season, when six franchises entered with odds shorter than +1000 to win the championship.
One look at the 2025 Super Bowl odds board should illustrate that the league is taking a step in a more balanced direction. The Baltimore Ravens and reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles are co-favorites heading into the campaign, showing +650 odds at ESPN BET. Right behind are the Buffalo Bills at +700, followed by Kansas City at +750 and the Detroit Lions at +1000.
Assuming no last-second movement, it's the first time since 2017 that there are five teams with odds of +1000 or shorter to win the Super Bowl entering a season, according to SportsOddsHistory.com.
"That's something that us as bookmakers like to see is some kind of parity," Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN. "That's usually what's going to be positive for us."
The top three favorites, now perennial contenders alongside the Chiefs, have attracted significant action from the betting public, garnering the most bets and handle at FanDuel; Buffalo has the most tickets and Philadelphia has the most money, while Baltimore has the second-most of each. BetMGM took a $55,000 wager on the Eagles to repeat at +650 odds for a win of $357,500 if successful.
The Birds and the Bills, in particular, have also taken significant action in the conference championship markets, with each snagging the most bets for the NFC and AFC, respectively, at DraftKings. At BetMGM, however, Ravens-Eagles is both the favorite (+1800) and most-bet by handle (13%) to be the Super Bowl matchup this season. The sportsbook notes that the market is its fourth-most popular among futures, trailing only the Super Bowl and conference markets.
It ultimately leaves the dynastic Chiefs in the somewhat unfamiliar position of being on the outside looking in at the top favorites going into a season: Assuming the odds hold, this would be the first time Kansas City has not been a top three preseason Super Bowl favorite since 2018, Mahomes' first season as the starting quarterback.
Wild, wild AFC West
Sportsbooks' lower assessment of the Chiefs and bettors' relative indifference to them is likely a reflection of what could end up being the strongest division in the NFL this season.
Kansas City is still the odds-on favorite to win the AFC West with -120 odds at ESPN BET and are a popular play to win it at some books, but the public perception around the other teams in the division, combined with the Chiefs looking vulnerable at times in 2024, has bookmakers and bettors thinking twice before automatically crowning Mahomes and company.
"It's hard to say with the Chiefs, because every year you can say that the Chiefs are down a little bit and lost some players. But as long as Mahomes is on the field and they have that coach, it seems like they'll figure out a way," DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "But the Chargers certainly look better, the Broncos a hundred percent look better and the Raiders look better. So, that probably is the toughest division, or maybe the best in the National Football League."
The Denver Broncos completely subverted expectations last season by making the playoffs after entering as +750 underdogs to do so (second longest in the NFL) and, thus, come into 2025 with much higher goals, showing the second-best AFC West winner odds (+275) at ESPN BET. BetMGM reports that it shortened Denver's Super Bowl and division odds as a result of heavy action; the Broncos are the book's most-bet team to win its division across the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers have somewhat less support from the betting public despite a decently strong 2024 showing in the first season for head coach Jim Harbaugh. LA's consistent talent level mixed with disappointing season endings could be dampening enthusiasm, despite another formidable roster.
Interestingly, the Las Vegas Raiders have proved to be a hot commodity in the futures markets. Spurred on by offseason additions of a legendary head coach, a well-respected quarterback and an explosive rookie running back, the Raiders are BetMGM's largest liability both to win the Super Bowl and the AFC West -- a result of their very long odds for each (100-1 and +1500, respectively).
Still, high rollers in Las Vegas and nationwide are looking to support the city's hometown team. DraftKings reports two large wagers on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl at 100-1 odds: one for $25,000 to win $2.5 million, and one for $10,000 to win $1 million.
"We have a very big Raider betting nation here in Las Vegas, and that certainly adds to your liabilities and adds to your excitement," Feazel said. "They're certainly going to show up to the betting window year after year, even if it's not an exciting year like this year is going to be."
He also believes that bettors are likening this Raiders team to the upstart 2024 Washington Commanders and are trying to find that dark horse before the season kicks off.
Nasty, nasty NFC North
Another perennially strong division was already seeing a lot of futures action during the offseason ... then the potential trade of the year sent it into overdrive.
The NFC North is BetMGM's most-bet division by total tickets, directly leading the AFC West in second place. As it has been in recent years, the NFC North is expected to be a highly competitive division once again, with the Chicago Bears showing the longest odds to win it at only +475, per ESPN BET.
At the top of the division winner odds board had been the Lions (+185), who have become a bettor favorite after several exciting seasons that were just short of a Super Bowl appearance. That fervor continues into 2025, as Detroit is one of the largest attractors of Super Bowl winner betting action at DraftKings and BetMGM, which also reports a $54,500 wager at +1000 that would net $545,000 if successful.
Despite the popularity, bookmakers are tempering their expectations on Detroit after the team lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to other head coaching jobs, which could explain some of the longer odds than expected, according to Feazel.
The Lions saw their leadership of the NFC North winner market evaporate after the Green Bay Packers (+175) stunned the NFL world by acquiring All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys. The trade propelled Green Bay into a tie with Detroit and eventually past the Lions for the best odds to win the NFC North, and from +2000 to +1400 to win this season's Super Bowl, right behind the Lions (+1000).
BetMGM reports that in the hours following the trade, 25% of all Super Bowl future bets came in on the Packers, the most over that period.
With those two squads commanding all the excitement, it could be easy to forget that the Minnesota Vikings almost won the division in 2024 and are +375 to do so in 2025. The team will be trotting out untested quarterback J.J. McCarthy this season, but DraftKings' Avello says that he and head coach Kevin O'Connell are inspiring bettors to back the Vikes at a decent clip.
And don't forget about the Bears, who have actually attracted the fifth-most tickets to win the NFC at FanDuel. As a big-market team with high-profile players, the temptation to invest in them could be a value proposition for much of the public.
"The thing about the Bears is that we do take money on them every single year, and they are improved this year," Avello said. "So there's never a surprise on seeing that team bet."
Burrow breakthrough?
As the season draws near, bettors are clearly voicing their opinion that they believe this is the year Joe Burrow breaks through for his first Most Valuable Player award.
The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback, showing +600 odds at ESPN BET, is the bets and money leader in the MVP market at all sportsbooks polled, attracting a whopping 23.7% of handle at BetMGM to be its largest liability.
While Burrow's skill is undeniable and he put up MVP-type statistics last season, the one thing that could hold him back is his team's performance in the narrative-driven award.
"I think what hurts Joe Burrow in this MVP conversation, same thing with last year, is his defense going to be able to put them in a position where they can be a competitor for the Super Bowl?" Feazel said. "You're the best player on one of the best teams, is usually what the MVP is going for."
That logic could be preventing oddsmakers from making him the favorite. Instead, that distinction belongs to Lamar Jackson, who is +450 in ESPN BET's MVP market. Despite already being a two-time winner of the award and also putting forth a strong case to win his third last season, the Ravens quarterback has not been popular with bettors, attracting only the fourth-most handle for the award, at best, across the sportsbook marketplace.
As for reigning winner Josh Allen (+650), Feazel believes that "voter fatigue" could play into the Bills quarterback from winning the award again unless he has a truly extraordinary season; Allen does not crack the top five for wagers or money at either BetMGM or FanDuel.
Odds and ends
Among the most fascinating storylines heading into the 2025 NFL season will be the progress of second overall draft pick Travis Hunter, who will notably be eligible for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year. Despite the fervent following he attracted in college, the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver/cornerback hasn't been a particularly popular pick among the public in either market, even seeing his odds lengthen significantly, but Avello thinks the liability could grow if he gets hot early.
After a hugely disappointing 2024 campaign, the San Francisco 49ers were rewarded with one of the easiest schedules in the NFL for 2025, a fact that has seen them attract action in the Super Bowl markets, with Feazel specifically singling them out for "a decent amount of liability." He also notes that quarterback Brock Purdy has gotten a fair amount of action in the MVP markets for the same reasons.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are embarking on a grand experiment this season by bringing in quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver DK Metcalf, and bettors are buying in, to some extent. Bookmakers talk up the Steelers getting bet up every season, and that has held true, with FanDuel reporting them as a top-five most-bet team for the AFC and BetMGM shortening their future odds from action.
After the Parsons megatrade, the Cowboys' future odds fell precipitously, with the Super Bowl line going from +5000 to +6000, and the NFC line lengthening from +2500 to +3000. Unfortunately for one BetMGM bettor, they placed a $10,000 bet at +2500 odds for Dallas to win the NFC -- a $250,000 potential win, but a big miss on value.