NFL Week 1 best bets: Will the underdogs deliver?

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- finding value.

Ben Solak and Seth Walder bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each bet recommended. As always, odds are all from ESPN BET.

With that, let's dive into the 2025 NFL betting season.

Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-110) at New Orleans Saints

Betting big favorites in Week 1 can be worrisome. There have been 48 favorites of at least six points in the past decade of opening weeks, and they're covering at a 39% clip. Historical trends would tell you to back the Saints here.

But the Cardinals match up wonderfully against the Saints. Second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler started six games for the Saints last season and struggled to string together positive plays. His dropback success rate of 36.5% was third worst in the NFL, as was his first down plus-touchdown rate (26.2%). That is significant against a Cardinals defense that plays in deep zones and challenges the passing game to work downfield slowly and methodically.

On the other side of the ball, Arizona has a unique running game that relies heavily on three tight-end sets and will be facing a Saints defense coordinated by Brandon Staley, who is renowned for his light boxes and accordingly susceptible run defense. Arizona was second in yards per carry last season as a team; the Saints defense was second in yards per carry surrendered. Nothing about the personnel or coaching changes on either team suggests this season will be any different.

We know Kyler Murray tends to be stronger earlier in the season, and we know Arizona needs a big year under general manager Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon. A drubbing of a recovering and reloading Saints team feels like the right way to start. -- Solak

Chicago Bears money line (+100) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The opening "Monday Night Football" matchup looks like a banger, as the Vikings and the Bears -- two of the hardest teams to forecast this season -- meet in Chicago. A prime-time road divisional game for J.J. McCarthy's first NFL start feels like a towering ask, and I'm surprised the Vikings are favored. There will be no Jordan Addison in this game, and while LT Christian Darrisaw could play, I'm worried how effective he'll be coming off of a torn ACL and MCL suffered in October. Meanwhile, it sounds like Bears CB Jaylon Johnson will be available, which is huge for the matchup with Justin Jefferson.

I love the matchup for the Bears offense, as new head coach Ben Johnson has familiarity with Vikings DC Brian Flores, having faced him four times as the offensive coordinator of the Lions. The Lions had 31, 31, 30 and 30 points in those four games, respectively, and while Caleb Williams might be more volatile than Jared Goff was, he certainly has the talent to beat this tricky defense (one of the best games of his rookie season came in Week 12 against Minnesota).

Bears over 21.5 total points is a fine alternative angle if you're not fading the early McCarthy games, which is a fair take, considering Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell has been so good scheming around quarterbacks the past few years. I also like Colston Loveland over 2.5 receptions (-170) in a big way. -- Solak

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (-110) vs. San Francisco 49ers

NFL sharps and public bettors love the 49ers on seasonlong win totals and postseason potential given their easy schedule and terrible injury luck from last season. But in a Week 1 scope, I'm not sure they should be favored so heavily in Seattle. The 49ers had another injury-riddled offseason, as several key players in this game (Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, Mykel Williams, Upton Stout, Dominick Puni, Ben Bartch) missed big parts of training camp. I'm not sure they'll be so fast out of the gate.

Seattle, meanwhile, rolls back one of the league's best defenses from the back half of 2024 -- including a game in which it held the 49ers to just 1.89 points per drive. On the offensive side, new Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak relies heavily on running the football and hitting explosive plays off play-action. The 49ers run defense was a liability last season, and their defensive backfield is rife with young players who can be manipulated by motion and run action.

The 49ers might end up being a strong team by the end of the season, but they've had too much roster turnover and August injury issues to hit the ground running in a divisional matchup in a hostile environment. Similarly, Seattle's pass protection is far from perfect, but at least for Week 1, everyone is healthy and active. If it stays that way, this can be a league-average unit. -- Solak

New York Giants +6.5 (-120) at Washington Commanders

The Commanders beat the Giants by 3 and 5 points in their two meetings last season -- both Daniel Jones starts. Jones is gone and Russell Wilson is in, which is about a neutral quarterback move by my number but I'll give a slight edge to Wilson. But it's the defensive improvements for New York that have me excited: The additions of Abdul Carter, Paulson Adebo and Jevon Holland round out what should be a strong unit at all three levels. Against this Commanders offense, you must have really solid performers at the first level -- Kliff Kingsbury wants to leave those edges unblocked and read them in space. Carter, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux can make you pay for that.

I, like many, are keeping a close eye on a potential Commanders regression. They are the oldest team in football -- though that will matter more later in the season -- and coming off of a historic year for fourth-down conversion rate. I'm very dubious of their ability to consistently get pressure, which is something all teams should be able to do against this Giants defensive line. Getting nearly a touchdown on what should be a functional Giants team feels too rich. -- Solak

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots over 43.5 total points (-115)

A key injury in this one: Star Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez hasn't practiced since a hamstring injury on July 28, including practice on Thursday. I would be stunned if he can go, and if he can't, the Patriots secondary seems really thin. Enter a Raiders passing attack that should be much improved with Geno Smith at quarterback and an offensive coordinator in Chip Kelly, who is historically willing to go up-tempo on offense. More plays equal more points.

The Raiders defense also leans me to the over, as the projected starting corners are Eric Stokes, Kyu Blu Kelly and Darnay Holmes -- not an inspiring group. The Raiders will hope to pressure second-year quarterback Drake Maye into mistakes, but mistakes can also be good for the over. Maye has a penchant for fumbles in the pocket, and Maye and Smith threw interceptions above the league-average rate last season. Defensive points count, too!

I like this below the key number of 44, and wouldn't take it if it gets to 44.5. -- Solak

Walder's defensive props

Andrew Van Ginkel, LB, Vikings, under 0.5 sacks (+100)

Van Ginkel ran hot last season, recording 11.5 sacks despite just an average 15% pass rush win rate and having never previously recorded more than 6.0 sacks. Yes, the Brian Flores defense is a big part of the reason why, and Flores is still there, but I still believe variance was probably on Van Ginkel's side.

Van Ginkel will be chasing Caleb Williams, who had a sack problem last season with a 10% rate. I suspect that that issue will persist, though it might improve. In addition to Chicago's own offensive line upgrades on the interior, a shift to Johnson's scheme should help Williams. Last year, the Lions ran play-action -- which helps reduce sacks -- 36% of the time, most of any team in the league, while the Bears had the third-lowest play-action rate at just 19%. The Bears will likely also simply pass less frequently, which should bring down Williams' total sacks.

Altogether, my model sees the under's true price being -145, and we're getting even money here. I'm also looking at Van Ginkel under 4.5 tackles plus assists (+115).

Brian Burns, LB, Giants over 0.5 sacks (+190)

The most important rule of sack prediction is that no one has more control over a quarterback's sack rate than the quarterback. And that matters here with Burns facing Jayden Daniels, who posted a higher-than-average 7.9% sack rate in his rookie campaign.

It's not the only thing that matters, of course, and that's part of the reason why Washington spent the offseason upgrading its offensive line. But heading into the season the only sure strength it has is Laremy Tunsil at left tackle. It remains to be seen how the Giants will handle alignments on their defensive line with Abdul Carter now in the mix, too, but last year Burns played more frequently against the right tackle. In this case, that would mean against rookie Josh Conerly Jr. As good a prospect as he is, he'll still be a rookie in his NFL debut Sunday. I make the fair price here +119.

Other sack props to consider:

• Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs, under 0.5 sacks (-130)

• Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Giants, over 0.5 sacks (+290)

• Von Miller, LB, Commanders, over 0.5 sacks (+175)

• Calijah Kancey, DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, under 0.5 sacks (-200)

Micah McFadden, LB, Giants, over 5.5 tackles plus assists (-140)

The average tackle prop line for an off-ball linebacker last season was 7.8. So 5.5 is low, and we're here to capitalize on that.

It's actually even better: McFadden is a linebacker on the Giants, who are 6.5-point underdogs to the Commanders. That means it's quite likely that Washington will get out to a lead and then start running the ball. That's when a linebacker can rack up a ton of tackles: Linebackers last season had a 10% tackle rate on dropbacks but a 19% tackle rate against the run. My numbers have McFadden averaging 6.7 tackles against Washington and covering this 5.5 line 65% of the time.

Christian Rozeboom, LB, Carolina Panthers 10+ tackles + assists (+400)

Because ESPN BET offers alternate tackle lines, I upgraded (hopefully!) my tackle model this offseason to now output the entire range of outcomes. And it likes the upside for Rozeboom's Panthers debut Sunday against the Jaguars. It would price his chances of hitting double digits at +331.

That's driven in part by the fact that Rozeboom was a tackling machine with the Rams last season, with a 17% tackle rate that ranked third among inside linebackers. I have extra confidence here, too, because I know the model is assuming that Rozeboom will play about 80% of the time based on what he did last season. But that might be an underestimate considering Rozeboom is expected to wear the green dot in the Panthers defense.

Other tackles props to consider:

• Brian Branch, S, Lions, under 6.5 tackles plus assists (-105)

• Taylor Rapp, S, Bills, under 5.5 tackles plus assists (+110)

• Jarvis Brownlee Jr., CB, Tennessee Titans, under 4.5 tackles plus assists (+115)

Props for RBs, WRs and QBs

Josh Jacobs under 72.5 rushing yards (-115)

Only 30% of running backs facing the Lions last season cleared their rushing over. One of those was Jacobs, who put up 95 rushing yards on a 59.5 line in Week 9. But overall, only six overs -- and only five backs ever -- rushed for more than 70 yards. The Lions were committed to stopping the run under DC Aaron Glenn, and I imagine they will be again under his replacement, Kelvin Sheppard, who had previously been the linebackers coach in Detroit.

There's no Alim McNeill in this game, as the dominant Lions DT is still returning from a late season knee injury, but the Lions still have quality depth in DJ Reader and first-round rookie Tyleik Williams. Because of their defensive structure and commitment to stopping the run, the Lions saw the highest called pass rate against them last year -- 67.9%. If the Packers come out firing or fall into an early hole, Jacobs won't get the volume to clear this number. And even if he does, the Lions have the defense to keep him below this lofty total. -- Solak

Lamar Jackson under 7.5 rushing attempts (+115)

The Bills' cornerback room is in a shaky spot to start the season. Rookie first-rounder Maxwell Hairston is out with a leg injury, and Tre'Davious White, the veteran projected to fill his shoes, -- wasn't able to practice Thursday with a lower-leg injury. Christian Benford practiced Thursday and should be a go, though it's unclear if he's truly at 100%. The corner depth, plus a safety room of Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop that has questionable coverage chops, puts the Bills' secondary in dangerous waters for Week 1.

We know what Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will do to protect these players: Play Cover 2, drop into deep zones and keep everything in front of them. It's what they are philosophically anyway.

This sort of defense and game script will discourage Jackson from tucking and running. He had only six rush attempts against the Bills in Week 4 last season, when they blew Buffalo out of the water with Derrick Henry and the downhill rushing attack, and he had six again in a close game in the divisional round of the playoffs, when the Ravens were trailing and dropping back. With plenty of space in the passing game and a size advantage whenever Henry gets into the second level, I wager we won't see many Jackson carries in this one. -- Solak

Jahmyr Gibbs 4+ receptions (+140)

One of my favorite splits in football is the dramatic difference in reception rates for running backs against man and zone coverage. Against man coverage last season, running backs recorded a reception on 8% of plays. Against zone, that number nearly doubled to 15%. Guess who had the second-highest zone coverage rate (71%) last season? The Green Bay Packers, Detroit's Week 1 opponent, under defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Gibbs could be in for a huge receiving day. -- Solak

Josh Downs 80+ receiving yards (+400)

Downs is coming off a breakout campaign, at least on a per-play basis. Even though he barely cleared 800 yards on the season, he recorded 2.4 yards per route run and -- most impressive to the model -- he was targeted 32% of the time! That kind of target rate is a demonstration of Downs' skill, no matter what the other receivers he was competing with were doing. His target rate was also an absurd 49% (!!!) when the ball was thrown in under 2.5 seconds. Granted the Colts have a new quarterback this year in Daniel Jones, but it shows if Shane Steichen wants to get Jones some quick wins that Downs is often the recipient, especially since he'll often be facing fifth-round rookie nickel Jason Marshall Jr. Downs had a hamstring injury in August but wasn't on the Colts' initial injury report for Week 1, so he should be good to go. My model makes the fair price here +248. -- Solak

Cooper Kupp 90+ receiving yards (+750)

I was skeptical of the Seahawks acquisition of Kupp, but that had more to do with his salary, age and injury history. But when all we need for him is to stay healthy for a single game, it's a different story. When Kupp was on the field last year he was still effective: He hauled in a 29% target rate (seventh best among wide receivers with at least 150 routes) and a good (not amazing) 2.1 yards per route run. Sure, there's uncertainty here for him in a new offense but that's why we're betting an alternate line! We're embracing that uncertainty. My model prices this at +357. -- Solak

Kyler Murray under 0.5 interceptions (-115)

I'm surprised we're getting this favorable of a number here considering the opponent. The Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites on the road against the Saints, who are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. The most likely scenario is that Arizona gets out to a lead and then is able to play conservative for most of the game, helping to keep the ball out of harm's way. If Murray were a particularly pick-happy quarterback or the Cardinals had demonstrated they were an extreme passing team, I might think differently, but neither is the case. I make the fair price -133. -- Solak

Also consider: Josh Jacobs under 1.5 receptions (+140) Alternate receiving yards