With Week 0 of the college football season fast approaching, is it too early to make a Heisman Trophy prediction?
Last season, I waited and took Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty to win the the award at 35-1 ahead of Week 1, and then I bet on Travis Hunter to win at 30-1 in Week 2. This year, it's smart to take the same measured approach. The Heisman market is still settling, but three players deserve our attention ahead of the 2025 season.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning enters the 2025 season as a +600 favorite, with Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik and LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier just behind him at +900.
Manning is an enticing name for the recreational bettor, but history and context make taking a chance on him more sizzle than steak. He has an elite background, an NFL frame, dual-threat ability and complete grasp of the offense for a team favored to win the SEC title. Steve Sarkisian's system is QB-friendly, and the Longhorns' schedule offers plenty of Heisman statement games, including the season opener against Ohio State in Columbus. The narrative of Arch becoming the first Manning to win the Heisman Trophy is also media gold. Add in a relatively open field, and it's easy to understand why the public wants this ticket.
But the concerns around Manning are hard to ignore. He has only 95 career pass attempts and two starts on his résumé, making him an extreme statistical outlier for a preseason favorite. According to ESPN Research, only one preseason Heisman favorite has won the trophy in the past 16 years (Marcus Mariota in 2014).
Though first-year starters have succeeded before (Bryce Young in 2021 and Kyler Murray in 2018), they typically were more seasoned or played in hyper-productive systems. Any stumble in September for Manning could sink the hype.
For the casual fan, +600 offers bragging-rights potential. For a disciplined bettor, it's a pass. The implied probability far outweighs the true likelihood, given Manning's lack of experience, historical trends and the volatility of a Heisman race built on both stats and story. If Manning had +1200 or longer odds, the conversation changes. This is a fun public bet, but it doesn't profile as a value-based wager.
Keep an eye on these candidates
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik at +900 
Even if Clemson comes up short in the title race, Klubnik might not. Though Joe Burrow's 2019 Heisman run with LSU is an unreachable bar, Jayden Daniels' 2023 campaign is a bit more realistic. Daniels had massive numbers, dual-threat explosiveness and won the Heisman without his team reaching the playoff.
That's Klubnik's lane. He already has the stat base, throwing for 3,639 yards, 43 total touchdowns (36 passing) and only 6 interceptions, so if he adds a few hundred rushing yards and Clemson wins 11 games, that's more than enough, especially if Texas' Manning or LSU's Nussmeier falter through tougher SEC schedules.
Heisman voters want two things: big numbers and big moments, and Klubnik already has one. The other is comes with the national attention on at least the season opener and closer
Klubnik probably won't have a Burrow-like season in 2025, but he could very easily approach the production of Daniels' 2023 Heisman run and have a better record. Both could be enough to win college football's most prestigious award and get the Tigers into the postseason. Making the playoff feels like the floor for this team. Anything short of a playoff berth could possibly be one of the biggest disappointments in recent college football history.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith at +1200
Smith is fourth on the odds board and is my player to watch. The Ohio State wideout is coming off a historic freshman season that saw him log 76 catches for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns -- all FBS records for a true freshman. His résumé already includes Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Big Ten Receiver of the Year, as well as Rose Bowl MVP following a 187-yard, two-touchdown showcase.
Smith's elite route running, explosive playmaking and ability to win one-on-one matchups can elevate whomever is under center, much the way DeVonta Smith did for Mac Jones at Alabama in the 2020 season. Ohio State's loaded offense and balanced run game should free Smith for more one-on-one wins.
Wide receivers rarely win the Heisman, but two have done it in the past five seasons (DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter), proving the path is possible. And with Ohio State's history of producing seven Heisman winners, the stage and program pedigree are already in place for Smith to make a serious run at becoming the Buckeyes' first receiver to win the award.
Miami QB Carson Beck at +2000
Coming in eighth on the odds board, Beck is an intriguing long shot. Honestly, I don't love this because personally I'm not high on Miami this season. But Beck's profile fits two major recent trends.
First, transfer quarterbacks have dominated the award, winning it in each of the past three seasons, and seven times since 2010, with players finding new systems that unleash their production potential. Beck, who started the past two years at Georgia, steps into a quarterback-friendly setup that just turned Cameron Ward into a Heisman finalist.
Second, the past three winners didn't make the College Football Playoff, a stark shift from the playoff era's first eight seasons when missing the CFP almost disqualified a contender. That eases the pressure on Miami to be a top-tier team; Beck can contend on stats and narrative alone. With 7,912 career passing yards, SEC pedigree and the chance to post big numbers against ACC defenses, he checks the statistical and storyline boxes. If Beck does outperform, the redemption storyline and fresh start could resonate with voters.
The Heisman race in mid-August is a game of projection; equal parts skill evaluation, narrative spotting and understanding how voting has shifted in recent years. Manning brings hype and name recognition, Smith offers production and star power at a position that has broken through in recent years, and Beck fits the non-playoff-winning archetype that's suddenly in vogue. There's no official pick from me yet, but these three are the early benchmarks. As the season begins and the market moves, the real value and my official prediction will reveal itself.