The NFL begins its International Games slate Friday with an AFC West matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers in São Paulo.
The division is expected to be tight once again this season after three teams reached the playoffs in 2024. The Chiefs went 15-2 on their way to a ninth straight division title and third straight Super Bowl appearance. The Chargers went 11-6 in Jim Harbaugh's first year at the helm.
Kansas City, the division favorite at -120, has won seven straight in the series, but only two of those games have been decided by a touchdown or more.
The teams won't meet again until Week 15. Kickoff for Friday's game is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (YouTube).
From odds and trends to picks, props and analysis from our experts, here's everything you need to help make your decisions at the betting window.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Chiefs -1.5 first half (-115)
Pamela Maldonado: This comes down to continuity versus transition, and I'll back Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid every time. The Chiefs offense isn't flashy anymore, but it's methodical -- quick throws, sustained drives and elite third-down conversion rates. That matches up perfectly against a Chargers defense that looked great last year... until they faced elite QBs. Against Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow? They allowed a combined 101 passer rating and 46% success rate.
Meanwhile, the Chargers' run game ranked 28th in success rate last year, and outside of Ladd McConkey, the wide receiver room is still inconsistent. Neutral site, new offense and Mahomes' rapid release in Brazil? I'll take the better QB, better coach and better continuity. Chiefs get it done in the first half.
Notable player props, bets
Isiah Pacheco to score anytime TD (+185)
Maldonado: The Chargers defense gave up 4.7 yards per carry last season and ranked 30th in goal-line stop rate, which is exactly where Pacheco thrives. Before his injury, Kansas City had been leaning on Pacheco more inside the 10-yard line, and that could be the case again, especially with their red zone passing efficiency dipping las year.
Mahomes' quick release neutralizes the Chargers' pass rush, which should set up plenty of short-yardage opportunities. Neutral-site games tend to favor reliable ground production, and Pacheco's physical running style travels well. At +185, you're getting great value on the Chiefs' most trusted red-zone option.
Ladd McConkey to score anytime TD (+165)
Eric Moody: McConkey quickly became one of quarterback Justin Herbert's favorite targets last season, finishing 2024 ranked in the top 20 among wide receivers in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. He accounted for 35% of the Chargers' receiving touchdowns. While the arrivals of Tre Harris and Keenan Allen are worth noting, McConkey should remain Herbert's top target, especially in the red zone.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-105)
Matt Bowen: Pacheco's 2024 season was derailed by a broken fibula. If we go back to 2023, however, Pacheco totaled 44 receptions. Look for the Chiefs running back to see targets on Friday in Andy Reid's screen package or as an underneath outlet for Mahomes.
Clay's projection: 3 receptions, 18 yards
Ben Solak: There are two ways we get over this number. The first way is easy: Pacheco returns to his spot as the clear starter in the Chiefs backfield. He was the unquestioned leader last season (80% of the snaps in Week 1) before he fractured his fibula in Week 2. In both of those games, he was easily over this number. Against a Chargers defense that plays soft zone coverage and encourages targets to the back, Pacheco should see several targets and breeze over this line.
The second way is trickier. Pacheco could split more time with Kareem Hunt and rookie Brashard Smith if he hasn't fully returned to pre-injury form. Even in that world, Pacheco runs a decent percentage of the routes. Post-injury last year, he ran 87 routes to Hunt's 97, and another 82 went to Samaje Perine (those are now up for grabs). Because the Chargers defense is so willing to allow completions to running backs (24.1% target rate for opposing backs, which led the league last season), even a reduced menu of routes is enough to get the job done.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
Kansas City is 6-0 against the spread versus the Chargers since 2022.
The Chiefs have won 11 straight road/neutral site games against the Chargers and are 19-3 versus the Chargers since 2014.
The Chargers are 9-2-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2012 and went 6-0 ATS against division opponents last season.
The Chargers went over last season's win total (11 wins, 8.5 win total) for the first time since 2018, per SportsOddsHistory.com. There win total for this season is 9.5.