It's Feb. 22, and three men dressed in dapper brown suits gather on a stage in Malmö, Sweden. One of the men begins rapping in Finland-Swedish, one plays accordion, and the other grills a (very real) falukorv sausage over a (very real) fire. Background dancers fill in, pantomiming chopping wood in front of a woodshed that later converts into a replica of a Finnish sauna.
For the entire two-minute, 46-second duration, the three men sing, rap and dance about Finnish sauna culture. It sounds like a goofy concept to the uninitiated, but the song becomes a serious vibe that incorporates many of the traditional themes and music of the region.
The song, "Bara bada bastu" by Swedish-speaking Finnish group KAJ, is Sweden's entry into the 2025 edition of Eurovision Song Contest and has attracted considerable buzz since debuting at Melodifestivalen that night. It's currently the betting favorite to win Eurovision 2025 in Basel, Switzerland, which begins with semifinals this week on Tuesday and Thursday, and concludes with the final on May 17.
Most Americans' exposure to the competition is limited to Will Ferrell's 2020 comedy "Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga," or possibly knowing that ABBA and Celine Dion were two of the most successful acts to emerge from the contest. But in Europe, Eurovision Song Contest is a massive pop culture sensation, with 37 countries -- primarily from across the continent but also including Australia and Israel -- competing in 2025.
The 2024 contest attracted 163 million viewers across the public service channels of the European Broadcasting Union, which organizes the event each year, with more viewers coming from outside that sphere. Like many competitive endeavors, that massive viewership also means a large betting contingent.
"In terms of turnover, Eurovision is by far our biggest non-sporting event," Lee Phelps, a spokesperson for British sportsbook William Hill, told ESPN via email. "At this time of year, it even rivals some mid-level football fixtures for volume. It really is the Super Bowl of specials markets."
Sam Eaton, the United Kingdom country manager at sportsbook aggregator Oddschecker, estimates that more than £200 million (approximately $266 million) will be wagered on the competition in 2025. He further points out that more bets were made on Eurovision 2024 via betting marketplace Betfair Exchange than on the Grand National, England's most famous horse race, and that there were more searches for "Eurovision betting" in 2024 than at any time in history, according to Google Trends.
Betting on Eurovision Song Contest is not yet available with any major legal sportsbooks in the United States (although American counterparts in Canada do offer it), but with the growing cultural influence of the competition and the seemingly insatiable appetite of American bettors, it's only a matter of time. The world of Eurovision betting is one for casuals and pros alike that has all the intricacies and drama of even the most-wagered-on sporting events.
"We've been offering Eurovision betting markets for decades -- long before it became the internet phenomenon it is today," Phelps said. "It's grown in line with the show itself, which has become much more than just a music competition -- it's a cultural moment."
Unlike on-field sports competitions and much more akin to sports and pop culture awards, such as the Oscars, handicapping Eurovision is more about weighing human decision-making rather than predicting the outcomes of tangible results.
The process of crowning a Eurovision champion begins with each member country broadcaster selecting its entry. Some select through a mini version of Eurovision, often in the form of a music festival, while others do so via committee.
The previous year's winner, which generally hosts the contest, and countries comprising the largest financially contributing "Big Five" -- France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom -- automatically advance to the final. All other countries send their entries to one of the two semifinals to compete for a spot in the final.
Viewers vote by phone, text or the official Eurovision app for which semifinalists should move on to the final. This televote system is also used in the final, but is combined with a collection of juries of music industry professionals from each competing country. In all cases, residents of each country are not permitted to vote for their own country's entry. The song with the most points in the positional voting system at the end of the final is crowned the winner.
As with awards oddsmaking, this presents a challenge for sportsbooks to balance a multitude of factors that are not limited to the songs and artists themselves -- although that element of live performance is one aspect that separates Eurovision from award shows.
"Early on, when the songs start dropping in February and March, the odds are mainly based on traders' opinions -- what sounds like a potential winner, how previous trends apply, that kind of thing," Phelps said. "As we get closer to May and fan engagement ramps up, we start to lean on expert fan models, which factor in polling, rehearsal buzz and national final performances. Eurovision superfans can be incredibly savvy, so we have to pay attention."
Another unique factor is political dynamics and coalitions between nations that transcend the bounds of the competition. Ben Smith, a co-host of the U.S.-based "The EuroWhat? Podcast," sees Eurovision as "an interesting reflection on international relations and who is friends with one another."
"Because the Nordic nations like one another, they're going to give each other points; they're on the same wavelength. The various Balkan nations, that sort of thing," he told ESPN. "But it's not all bloc voting. You have a lot of various cultural groups whose diasporas have now moved all over Europe."
The process of considering every factor allows the market to get "very sharp" by the time the actual shows roll around, according to Phelps.
Eaton, who has been betting on Eurovision for many years, believes that Eurovision is "the easiest thing to bet on" because there is generally a pretty clear formula to find the winners: He looks at the results of major online polls -- which often garner more than 300,000 responses and comprise many of the same people who televote -- and the most bet-on country in March, when many of the sharper bettors throw down their money in order to get the most value.
Since 2015, countries that won the main Eurovision poll and were the most bet-on country in March ended up winning the contest six out of nine times. Thus, the favorites come mid-May often end up winning it all, with sportsbooks adjusting their odds all spring based on that sharp action. By contrast, more casual bettors tend to back songs based on geography or gut feel, leading to plenty of winnings for the books.
"It very much attracts a new audience," said Eaton, who notes that the average stake size for Eurovision is around £12 (approximately $16). "The one-time bettors either normally bet the country they're from or their favorite song. So they'll watch all the songs and back their favorite song, which is not the right method."
"The betting market for Eurovision tends to get the top contenders right and is often spot on when it comes to who will win the jury vote or dominate the televote," a trader from Irish betting company Paddy Power told ESPN via email. "Betting firms have generally made profits from Eurovision in recent years especially during more predictable contests."
For bettors who like the favorites but balk at the short prices, there are opportunities to grab better odds during preshow rehearsals and even in the closing stages of the finals. With a voting and accounting process that takes hours, odds often shift on the fly as results trickle in, with the favorites sometimes losing and regaining that status in the span of minutes.
There are also opportunities for bettors who do want to back the underdogs, whether that's through ancillary markets like top five or top 10 or outright. Underdogs winning it all is not unheard of, after all.
In 2016, Ukraine was around a 20-1 underdog and did not lead in either the preshow polls or betting volume before going on to win. In 2022, the U.K. won the jury vote, but Ukraine, in the midst of Russia's invasion of the country, garnered a record number of televotes to win its third contest title, overcoming long live odds in the process.
"Ukraine is very good at Eurovision," Smith said. "I think that they would've done well regardless, but it was definitely also partially a goodwill gesture on everybody else in Europe saying, 'Hey, we support you.'"
Sweden is also very good at the Eurovision Song Contest. The country that produced ABBA is tied with Ireland for the most Eurovision titles with seven and could be poised to stand alone at the top if KAJ is able to follow through on its promise as favorites.
If there was ever any chance of Sweden fatigue, given that it last won the contest in 2023, the country appears to be battling it this year with its zany, more traditional song.
"Sweden, pop music is one of their major exports, I think that's why they do well," Smith said. "They can sometimes, I think correctly, get accused of sending things that are a little bit too smooth or too 'pop machine.' This year's entry for them is really interesting because they are not sending their usual thing. They are doing, comparatively for them, a weird thing -- and it seems to be working."
Bookmakers have thus installed "Bara bada bastu" as a consensus +125 favorite. Bettors largely agree with the assessment, as William Hill reports a leading 30% of money supporting KAJ, while Paddy Power ranks them third, tied with hometown Ireland (100-1), at 10%.
Second on the odds board is "Wasted Love" by Austrian artist JJ, which shows odds in the +240 range across the European sportsbook marketplace. Paddy Power and William Hill both rank the song second in money wagered. Given all the factors that go into crowning favorites, it's clear that the market has found its front-runners.
"Those two are comfortably ahead of the rest of the field in terms of the serious money being laid down," Phelps said.
Nationalism will always play a role for casual bettors, so it should come as little surprise that the U.K.'s "What The Hell Just Happened?" by Remember Monday leads William Hill's bet count, while Ireland's "Laika Party" by Emmy has the most wagers at Paddy Power.
Bettors are gravitating toward some live underdogs. Both betting companies report healthy support for Belgium's "Strobe Lights" by Red Sebastian, which finds itself anywhere between 16-1 and 36-1 across the marketplace. There is also "Zjerm" by Shkodra Elektronike from Albania, which has made a run from its longest at 100-1 all the way up to 40-1 at some sportsbooks.
While the Eurovision Song Contest tends to be a favorites game, the rush of live performance could cause anything to happen when the lights go up, giving long shots a chance and everybody a great show.
"It feels like a much more open field this year than I've seen in some previous years. There are some years where you will hear the song in late February, early March and be like, 'That's it, that's the one,'" Smith said. "It's trying to read the room of who has both the heart of the public and the heart of the jury."