Liz Loza and I went 3-3 in the final week of the regular season, as Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings let both of us down, at least from a props perspective.
We did not have as robust a finish as we wanted, but that just gives us fuel to come in extra strong this week.
So, with the regular season in the rearview and the postseason on our doorstep, let's dive into the wild-card edition of props that pop! -- Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
The Minnesota Vikings take on the Los Angeles Rams in Monday Night's NFC wild-card game on ESPN/ABC.
Bo Nix OVER 224.5 passing yards (-115)
Dopp: There are a few obvious things that you obviously can't trust in life anymore. Yellow snow, Mike Clay's fantasy rankings and Denver Broncos RBs are at the top the list for me, so if you're looking to place a prop bet on the Broncos, look at Nix and the passing attack.
First off, Nix has been trending upward heading into playoffs, averaging more than 258 passing yards per game since Week 11. He has topped this line in five of his last seven games and will be going up against a Buffalo Bills defense that has allowed four of the last five QBs they've faced to top this line. Heck, even Drake Maye and that abysmal New England Patriots offense topped 260 passing yards in Week 16.
I'm expecting the Bills to win this one, and with the Broncos likely trailing, I'd bet on Nix having to air it out more times than not to keep it competitive. All of that leads me to taking the over on his passing yards prop.
Sam Darnold OVER 33.5 pass attempts (-125), OVER 0.5 INTs (-110)
Loza: With the game being moved to Arizona and a spread of just three points, this figures to be a close back-and-forth with plenty of twists and turns. That also suggests a surplus of throws for Darnold, who ranks eighth at the position in pass attempts and has registered at least 35 pass attempts in four straight efforts.
While the Los Angeles Rams secondary can be had, the team's young pass rush has developed over the course of 2024 (Rams rookies had the most sacks in the NFL this season with 13.5). The Detroit Lions brought constant pressure in Week 18, rattling Darnold and providing an effective blueprint for L.A.'s defense. Admittedly, Darnold didn't throw a pick last Sunday night, but the Rams have appeared frisky as of late, recording three INTs from Weeks 15 through 17. With Darnold coming off of a shaky performance and the Rams defense fully rested, Minnesota's QB is likely to push on Monday night.
Running back props
Tyler Fulghum explains why he is picking the Eagles to win and cover in their wild card matchup vs. the Packers.
Saquon Barkley OVER 118.5 total yards (-118)
Loza: The Green Bay Packers' run defense has proved formidable, allowing just 4.0 YPC to opposing rushers, the third-lowest mark behind the Broncos and Baltimore Ravens. Barkley, however, is, and has been, next level, registering an outrageous 6.0 yards per touch (RB4). Green Bay will surely attempt to contain Barkley, but given the threat of Jalen Hurts' legs in tandem with the Eagles' passing game, Barkley is likely to rip off a handful of long runs. In fact, he leads the league in rushes of 10 or more yards (46).
Additionally, Green Bay has allowed the third-most catches (91) and third-most receiving yards (117) to opposing RBs. Noting Barkley's dual-threat ability, it's reasonable to believe he'll post similar numbers to his Week 1 showing versus Green Bay (24 carries for 109 yards, two catches for 23 yards and three total TDs).
Barkley OVER 20.5 rush attempts (-120)
Dopp: Hurts has officially cleared the concussion protocol, but that doesn't mean the Eagles are going to go away from what's worked for them all season long. Barkley has averaged 21.6 rush attempts per game this season, and he topped this mark in five of his last seven games heading into the playoffs. Saquon has seen his passing-game work trail off at the end of the season, amassing only four receptions over his last four games, but his rushing numbers have remained strong. In fact, in his last two games of the regular season, he saw 29 and 31 carries!
I know the Packers have been good against the run this season, allowing only four running backs to top 20 carries, but one of those four guys just so happens to be Mr. Saquon Barkley himself. I'm expecting the Eagles to win this game, which could mean some additional ground work for Saquon as they try and run out the clock.
Normally I'm worried about how a defense has fared against a position when I'm looking at props, but Saquon has been in a league of his own this year, both from a workload and production standpoint. That's why I'm taking Barkley to top his rushing attempts prop.
Josh Jacobs OVER 17.5 rush attempts (-110)
Loza: Jordan Love (elbow) is banged up heading into the playoffs, but he has been removed from the injury report and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur confirmed that the quarterback will be good to go for their showdown against the Eagles. Unfortunately for Love, he'll be without Christian Watson, who suffered a non-contact ACL tear in Week 18. This means the Packers will be forced to rely on the rest of their receiving corps and, more specifically, lean on Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has been a machine in the backfield, accounting for over 40% of his teams touches in 2024, fifth-most in the NFL!
Jacobs has been the only consistent facet for this Green Bay offense, with the WRs and TEs showcasing more of a boom/bust nature this season. Jacobs, meanwhile, has had 17 or more rush attempts in six of his last eight games, and let's be honest, the Packers didn't
Unlike my other props that lean into potential garbage time to help give us a little cushion, Jacobs should be a focal point all game long, as the Packers passing game has been hit or miss all season. The Packers should keep it close enough to allow Jacobs to handle a heavy workload, which is why I'm taking him to top this prop in this wild-card matchup.
Wide receiver props
Tyler Fulghum explains why he is taking the Bills to win and cover in their wild card matchup vs. the Broncos.
Khalil Shakir OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-140)
Loza: Josh Allen's proclivity to spread the ball around has frustrated fantasy managers and, to some extent, bettors. Given the Buffalo Bills' 13-4 record, however, it doesn't figure to stop. While Allen hasn't force-fed any particular pass-catcher, Shakir has emerged as his most preferred option, leading the team in targets (99), grabs (76) and receiving yards (821). Drawing at least six looks in each of his last five outings, Shakir figures to lead Buffalo's passing attack versus the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
Denver's secondary boasts an All-Pro in Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss (who has been solid when healthy), both of whom spend the majority of their time manning the perimeter. In fact, Surtain has played just 7% of his snaps in the slot, while Moss has combed the middle for just 2% of his snaps. Their absence in the slot has created vulnerability in that area of the field, as the Broncos have given up the 11th-most receiving yards (1,356) to opposing slot receivers.
That sets up nicely for Shakir, who has managed a 70% slot rate (WR12). While Shakir has failed to clear the above line in each of his last three outings, he has averaged over 54 receiving yards per game overall. Given the stakes and the matchup, Shakir figures to flirt with five catches and around 55 receiving yards.
Tight end props
Tyler Fulghum lays out why he's taking the over for the showdown between the Commanders and Buccaneers in the NFL wild-card round.
Zach Ertz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-110), anytime TD (+185)
Loza: This game presents a buffet of juicy storylines: the renewed rivalry between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore, the emergence of Jalen McMillan (don't mind the over on his 49.5 receiving yards prop), and Jayden Daniels' full-circle moment (the Washington Commanders lost by 17 points at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1). Those are all narratives that are sure to entice bettors. But I like a more under-the-radar wager.
Ertz has put together a resurgent campaign, recording his highest number of receiving yards (654) since 2019 and scoring his most TDs (seven) since 2018. Working as a veteran safety valve, the 34-year-old has cleared 40 receiving yards in back-to-back efforts while also hauling in three of his seven total TDs over his last pair of games. That's a trend that figures to continue against a Buccaneers defense that has struggled against opposing tight ends, giving up the second-most receiving yards to the position (1,144). I'm probably being greedy by adding the anytime TD, but Ertz's recent run in the red zone has me biting on the long odds.