The NFL playoffs are finally here, and we're betting to win.
And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:
A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally by my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.
A less-efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense) and alternate lines. Less attention means less-efficient markets and, therefore, more opportunities to find value.
Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or another. Each week, I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.
Quick programming note: Under the Radar Bets will be off for the divisional round, but then will return for the conference championships and Super Bowl.
Results for this season are at the bottom of this story.
Defensive sacks
Joey Bosa (LAC) over 0.5 sacks (+190)
Sure, he's not the Joey Bosa of old, but my model likes his chances to get a sack in the wild-card round quite a bit better than these odds suggest. It thinks the fair price is +135 for Bosa, and I can see why. The Chargers are favorites and are facing C.J. Stroud, who has an 8.4% sack rate that ranks 27th out of 32 QBR qualifying quarterbacks this season. Bosa's pass rush win rate is a mere 15% this year, roughly average for an edge rusher, but again: Stroud's sack rate. If Bosa were slated to face off against Laremy Tunsil I might have some hesitation. But Bosa mostly plays on the other side of the line and instead will mostly face rookie tackle Blake Fisher, whose 86% pass block win rate at tackle is just okay.
Nolan Smith Jr. (PHI) over 0.5 sacks (+225)
If anything, I think my model -- which prices Nolan's over at +133 -- might be underrating Smith given that the Eagles pass rusher's playing time has increased over the course of the season. In Weeks 1-10, Smith rushed the passer on 29% of the Eagles' defensive pass plays. But in Weeks 11-17 (he didn't play in Week 18) that number jumped to 53%. Smith finished the season with 6.5 sacks and a 16% pass rush win rate (average for an edge rusher). It does hurt that Jordan Love takes sacks at a low rate, but that is mitigated by the fact that the Eagles are 4.5-point favorites.
See also:
Poona Ford (LAC) under 0.5 sacks (-320)
Tuli Tuipulotu (LAC) under 0.5 sacks (-180)
Denico Autry (HOU) over 0.5 sacks (+375)
Bryce Huff (PHI) over 0.5 sacks (+600)
Von Miller (BUF) over 0.5 sacks (+300)
Defensive tackles
Zack Baun (PHI) over 8.5 tackles + assists (-120)
Baun had a huge year that put him on the outskirts of the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. The tackling numbers were impressive: Baun's 17% tackle rate -- strong against both the run and the pass -- ranked third among inside linebackers who played at least 70% of snaps in games played. His run stop win rate was in the top 10, too.
While the Eagles are favored -- which could lead to a pass-heavy game script -- they are playing the Packers, who have the third-lowest pass rate over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That works in our favor as well. My model forecasts 9.9 combined tackles for Baun.
See also:
Daiyan Henley (LAC) under 9.5 tackles + assists (-125)
Alternate receiving yards
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 70-plus receiving yards (+225)
We're fading recency here. Prior to resting in Week 18, Kupp played three straight games in which he failed to reach 30 receiving yards. Even with all that, his numbers for the season are too strong to ignore. Among wide receivers with at least 200 routes run, Kupp recorded the seventh-best target rate (29%), the 13th-best reception rate (19%), and the 11th-best average receiving yards prop line (66.8). Especially because of that last part, the model feels there's surely better than a one-in-three chance that he hits what was essentially his mean prop line this year.
Anytime touchdowns
A.J. Brown (PHI) to score 1-plus touchdowns (+120)
Brown missed four games and plays on a run-heavy team, which meant that his total numbers weren't as gaudy as one might expect, given how incredible his play was, but the advanced stats were exceptional. Among wide receivers with at least 200 routes run, he ranked first in yards per route run (3.8), second in yards per route (3.4), fourth in target rate (30%) and fourth in average receiving yards prop line (79.5).
Though it's not in my touchdown model, Brown also finished the season with a 99 overall score in ESPN's player-tracking-based receiver scores, the highest possible score. All of this is to say that Brown is incredible, and even at +120 my touchdown model thinks we're getting value. It makes the fair price -118.
QB interceptions
Jordan Love (GB) under 0.5 interceptions (+135)
I'm not just picking this bet because we've selected it in each of the last two weeks and won, though I certainly don't mind that it's gone that way for us. Love threw at least one interception in each of his first eight games and then has not thrown a single one in any of his past seven. I wouldn't put too much stock in that -- picks are fluky, after all -- but the fact that my interception model prices this under at -106 without giving any extra weight does add to my confidence. The Packers are underdogs against a very good Eagles defense, but don't forget that Green Bay leans run-heavy relative to game situation, and that reduces Love's opportunities to throw interceptions.
Past results
Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.