Welcome to Week 12!
The props were poppin' last week! Well, at least for Daniel Dopp. In fact, all three of Double D's wagers hit. My picks, on the other hand, did not fare as well. Travis Kelce disappeared, Nick Chubb continued to shake off rust, and the Seattle Seahawks delivered a heck of an upset.
Regardless, we're back for more and cooking up a buffet of tasty offerings.
Let's start earning that holiday gift cash ahead of Black Friday! -- Liz Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Bo Nix OVER 1.5 passing TDs, Denver Broncos to win (+150)
Loza: Nix has been flush with fantasy points recently, going over 20 in four of his last seven games. His legs have been the headline surrounding his FF success, but the Broncos rookie QB has also been succeeding as a passer. In fact, Nix ranks fifth at the position in pass attempts (32.5 per game) and first among QBs in deep ball throws (4.7 per game).
He has also demonstrated a penchant for converting in the red area of the field, tossing 13 TDs since Week 5, which ranks inside the top-five signal-callers in the NFL.
This week he'll travel to Las Vegas for a rematch against a banged up Las Vegas Raiders squad that he beat by 16 points back in early October. He also threw two TDs in that game. Lady luck figures to be on his side once again in Week 12.
Running back props
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-120)
Loza: Robinson has established himself as the Washington Commanders' RB1, averaging nearly 15 carries per game over the season. Thriving in one of the NFL's most run-friendly offenses, the 25-year-old has impressed as a pure runner, evading nearly four tackles per contest and registering nearly one rush over 15 yards per outing.
Fresh off of a hamstring injury that sidelined him for two contests, Robinson immediately returned to the top of the depth chart, recording 16 totes for 63 rushing yards and a score in Week 11 against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense.
He should fare even better this Sunday with the Commanders 10.5-point home favorites against a collapsing Dallas Cowboys squad (4.8 YPC allowed). Expect a spike in production from Robinson this weekend.
Wide receiver props
Mike Evans OVER 3.5 receptions (-130)
Dopp: This line is absurdly low, with the Bucs expecting Evans back. There isn't any other book that I've been able to find with a line under 4.5 receptions for Evans, so I'm going to jump on this while I can. This is a bit more anecdotal than anything, but there are still plenty of stats to back this one up.
First off, it's Evans' first game back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for the last four weeks. We're not totally sure what his usage or snap count will look like, but one thing is definitely clear if you've watched Tampa Bay during his absence: this offense is much better with Evans on the field. Baker Mayfield has continued to sling it, even during Evans' absence, ranking sixth among QBs in pass attempts per game since Week 8.
And maybe most important is the fact that this will be Evans' first game with Baker under center where he won't have fellow WR Chris Godwin on the field. With Godwin on season-ending IR, Evans should be targeted early and often even, though he'll draw a Deonte Banks shadow. According to Mike Clay's WR/CB matchup column, Banks has shadowed nine wideouts this year, with all but one of them easily reaching four catches. With Clay giving Evans an upgrade, I'm following suit and taking the over on this prop against the New York Giants.
Malik Nabers OVER 5.5 receptions (-110)
Danny Dimes is out and Tommy Cutlets is in. What does that mean for Nabers? Honestly, it can't get much worse. Nabers leads the NFL with a 36.8% target share in games played. That number is ridiculously high. There are only three other players in the NFL with a target share over 30%: A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp. To lead that group in target share as a rookie, with Daniel Jones under center, highlights the New York Giants' commitment to get him the ball as often as possible.
We don't actually know what this offense will look like with Tommy DeVito under center, but we do know that Nabers has hit this line in all but two games this year. My general feel is that the Giants' game plan isn't going to change with DeVito under center, especially against this Buccaneers secondary.
Not only am I expecting Tampa Bay to win this one, which should mean additional passing volume for Giants pass-catchers, but the Bucs are giving up the sixth-most yards per game and fourth-most receptions per game to opposing teams wide receivers. That means good things should be in store for the Devito-Nabers connection.
We're taking a leap of faith, knowing these two don't have a ton of chemistry. But, honestly, it feels like the only place to go is up for this superstar rookie. But keep an eye on the injury report, as Nabers missed Friday's practice with a groin injury and is listed as questionable.
Josh Downs OVER 4.5 receptions (-125), OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-140)
Dopp: Downs has been on a tear this season, showcasing his talents week in and week out, regardless of who's under center. I understand if you have some hesitation on this prop with Anthony Richardson under center, but I'm here to help quell those fears.
Let's start with the defense he'll be facing, as the Detroit Lions have been giving up boatloads of yards to wide receivers this year. More often than not, Detroit has been leading and forcing other teams to throw the football, which bodes well for us in this one. Specifically, the Lions have given up the most yards to the slot this year. How many you ask? Well, they've given up 886 yards to the slot in 10 games. As a comparison, the Buffalo Bills have given up the third-most yards via the slot, and they've only given up 686 yards in 11 games. That's a massive gap between the worst and third-worst team, and it highlights where the Lions can be beat.
That's relevant because Downs does the majority of his damage in the slot! Downs is second among WRs in both reception and receiving yards from the slot. So we've got a defense that struggles in a particular area going up against a player who specializes in that specific area. Seems good, right? Well, just for kicks, let's also throw this out there: Downs has reached both of these lines in six of his nine games this year, including three straight games leading into this one. It's a great matchup for Downs, who should be busy again with the Indianapolis Colts listed as 7.5-point underdogs.
And lastly, at 49.5 total points, this is the second-highest total of the weekend, according to ESPN BET. These lines cannot be put together for a parlay -- and I wouldn't suggest it since the odds only come out to -104 -- but I would play them separately.
Kendrick Bourne 25+ receiving yards (-105)
Loza: Bourne seems to be finding his late-career identity. The 29-year-old flashed at various points over the last three seasons with the New England Patriots, demonstrating intriguing rapport with Mac Jones. An ACL tear in late October of last year, however, upended his 2023 campaign and kept him off the field until Week 5 of 2024.
Gradually developing chemistry with rookie QB Drake Maye and slowly being folded into the offense over the following month, Bourne converted all five of his looks for a team-high 70 receiving yards last Sunday. Collecting 11 targets over his last two active games, Bourne should be involved again this go-around.
As a 7-point road underdog at Miami, Maye and the Patriots figure to be chasing points. Bourne should be good for at least three grabs and 35 receiving yards.