<
        >

          NFL betting: Under-the-radar props to bet in Week 12

          Jauan Jennings of the San Francisco 49ers had 10 receptions, including a touchdown, in Week 11. AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson
          • Seth WalderNov 22, 2024, 05:20 PM ET
            Close
              Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

          We're betting to win.

          And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

          1. A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally by my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

          2. A less-efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense) and alternate lines. Less attention means less-efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

          Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or another. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

          Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

          Defensive player props

          Devin Bush (CLE) over 5.5 tackles + assists (-130)

          My model leans over here (I forecast a mean of 6.3 combined tackles for Bush), but not enough for me to normally wager on it. However, the weather is working in our favor. Precipitation is expected on a cold night in Cleveland, and that does change things. Since 2022 49% of tackle overs have hit, but when it rains that number jumps to 54%.

          I don't have an explicit weather factor in my model so I'm sort of squinting at my number and squinting at the weather but I figure together it's enough to warrant a bet.

          Cameron Heyward (PIT) under 0.5 sacks (-220)

          I price this under at -303 because Heyward is a very good player but this year he has just a 10% pass rush win rate, barely above average for a defensive tackle, a position just naturally inclined to get fewer sacks anyway.

          That my price does not account for the weather makes me like this prop even more as the wet and cold should discourage passing. Even if the Browns shift their passing rate by a few percentage points lower than they would otherwise, that helps.

          See also:

          Alternate receiving yards

          Cooper Kupp (LAR) 70-plus receiving yards (+110)

          We backed Kupp and lost a few weeks ago and the model is coming back to him here, making the Rams wideout -140 to hit 70 receiving yards in Sunday's game against the Eagles. The model is a fan of Kupp week after week because he draws a ton of targets -- his 34% target rate leads wide receivers -- generates efficient yardage (2.5 yards per route run) and is on a team that focuses its passing game through its wide receivers in general.

          Yes, going against the Eagles is a concern, but the model incorporates Philadelphia's 4.9 yards allowed per man coverage play (fifth-best) and still likes Kupp. To be fair, Kupp's specific matchup is difficult because he's going against slot corner Cooper DeJean, who has allowed a low 0.7 yards per coverage snap this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

          Anytime touchdowns

          Jauan Jennings (SF) 1-plus touchdowns (+210)

          I think it's going somewhat underreported just how ridiculous Jauan Jennings' numbers are this year because he previously had a limited role. Among wide receivers with at least 15 routes per team game, Jennings ranks fourth in target rate, third in yards per route run and second in completed air yards (i.e. receiving yards excluding YAC) per route run.

          That's insane!

          ESPN's receiver scores are a fan, too. He's rocking strong 63/72/47 open/catch/YAC scores. When Brandon Aiyuk was on the field, the issue was Jennings' playing time, but he's played over 90% of snaps in each of the past two games. My model is at +131 for him to score a touchdown, a very large difference from the price offered here.

          See also:

          Interceptions thrown

          Justin Herbert (LAC) under 0.5 interceptions (+110)

          Let's start with the big number here: Herbert has a 0.3% interception rate, best among all QBR-qualified quarterbacks. Even though there's randomness in interceptions, it's still a good sign and something the model incorporates.

          That the Chargers are underdogs does not help our cause, but the fact that the Ravens have just a three-point advantage and have had a hard time stopping the pass all year does mitigate that concern. I price the under at -115 though buyer beware because I've gotten crushed on these all year.

          Alternate total

          Steelers-Browns under 33.5 (+130)

          This is a weather play. As of this writing, the Accuweather forecast for gametime is 38 degrees with a 63% chance of precipitation and 16 mile per hour winds gusting to 21 miles per hour. Obviously, that's likely to be baked into the total, but FPI+, our translation of ESPN's Football Power Index to the betting market, believes that the weather presents more variance than the alternate lines suggest.

          In other words: because of the weather, there's a higher chance this could go really under, hence the alt line play. We make the fair price here +107.

          Past results

          Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.