First place in the SEC will be up for grabs when the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies host the No. 8 LSU Tigers on Saturday night.
Texas A&M (+105 to make the College Football Playoff) is 4-0 in conference play and has won six straight after dropping its season opener to Notre Dame. LSU (-115), also on a six-game winning streak after losing its first game to USC, is right behind at 3-0 in conference play. Both teams are 6-1 overall.
The Tigers head into Kyle Field as 2.5-point underdogs to the Aggies. Kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: A&M -2.5
Money line: A&M -135, LSU +115
Over/under: 54.5 (Over -105/Under-115)
First-half spread: A&M -0.5 (-110), LSU +0.5 (-110)
First-half money line: A&M -140, LSU +110
First-half total points: 26.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Pamela Maldonado's pick: No. 14 Texas A&M -2.5 vs. No. 8 LSU
LSU's offense, while potent through the air (ranked seventh in passing with 324 YPG), struggles on the ground (81st in rushing, 128 YPG). And A&M's defense has been stout, recording at least seven tackles for loss in four consecutive games while matching its season high with 11 in its most recent outing.
The Aggies' ability to penetrate the backfield could disrupt LSU's offense and force Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier into mistakes -- hurried throws, sacks, etc. By consistently stopping the run and creating negative plays, Texas A&M can force LSU into predictable passing situations, allowing its defense to put more emphasis on its pass rush and coverage.
Offensively, the Aggies have a dominant rushing attack, scoring eight rushing touchdowns in their past two games alone, and can potentially exploit an LSU run defense graded 42nd by PFF. South Carolina put up 243 rushing yards and four rushing scores earlier this season against the Tigers. If A&M is able to utilize its run game and be efficient on third down, the Aggies can control the game's tempo, wear down LSU's defense and limit the Tigers' offensive possessions.
Success in the run game would also facilitate opportunities in the passing game for the Aggies. In his two games back since suffering a shoulder injury, A&M quarterback Conner Weigman has displayed impressive accuracy, completing 70% of his passes. This precision could come in handy against an LSU secondary that ranks 112th in defensive success rate against the pass.
While Texas A&M's overall passing statistics might not be stellar, Weigman's recent performance and the favorable matchup against LSU's weak pass defense bode well for the home team. Combined with a top-tier defense and potent ground game, the Aggies appear well positioned to control this matchup and cover the spread.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
LSU is 12-1 ATS vs Texas A&M since 2010, the best any Power 4 team has vs single opponent over span.
In LSU games, the over is 2-5 this year after going 12-1 last season.
Texas A&M is 10-6-1 ATS vs AP top-10 teams since 2017, seventh best in FBS over span.
Texas A&M is 1-5-2 ATS as a favorite vs AP top-10 teams since 2010, worst in FBS.
LSU is 17-9-1 ATS as an underdog since 2017, second best among Power 4 teams over span behind Oklahoma State (19-10).
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