The season is flying by. Week 9 features Utah versus Houston in what is likely to be a tightly contested matchup and Ole Miss hosts Oklahoma in a SEC showdown, where the Rebels aim to capitalize on the Sooners' recent struggles. Then there's ranked Navy, which takes on Notre Dame in a historic rivalry, with the Midshipmen looking to remain undefeated against a Fighting Irish team aiming to keep any chance of CFP hopes alive.
Each game promises potential season-defining moments.
Overall: 22-17-2
Since Week 5: 13-6-2
ATS: 11-9-2
OV/UN: 11-8
All lines current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET.
Ole Miss Rebels (-20) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
We could write an entire dissertation on the offensive struggles of Oklahoma. The offensive line has been inconsistent due to new faces and injuries, allowing 29 sacks (second most) and ranking 123rd in run blocking by PFF. The Sooners' rushing attack has been underwhelming, with under 90 rushing yards in three of the past four games, making the offense one-dimensional and predictable.
Turnovers also have been a major issue, with nine in recent games disrupting momentum and drive sustainability. Oklahoma frequently faces long third-down situations, converting 38% at third-and-10 or longer (131st in success rate). Jackson Arnold's inconsistency (57% completion rate and 5.5 yards per pass) further hinders the Sooners' progress.
These issues will be compounded against an Ole Miss defense generating the fourth-most sacks nationally, showcasing a strong pass rush led by Jared Ivey and newcomers Princely Umanmielen and Walter Nolen. The Rebels also rank first in opponent yards per rush attempt, allowing just 2.1 yards per carry.
Meanwhile Oklahoma's offense feels like a car sputtering uphill, struggling for traction as the terrain steepens. Each missed block and failed third down is like losing another part of the engine. Unless the Sooners fix their issues quickly, they're at risk of stalling out before reaching the top. Does Oklahoma even reach 10 points in this game?
Utah Utes at Houston Cougars OVER 36.5 points
This matchup is a stinker. I get that these offenses have struggled, ranked 114th and 122nd in offensive success rate, respectively. Utah has averaged 12 points in its past three games, leading to the resignation of offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig. Houston, under first-year coach Willie Fritz, has scored just 14 points in its past three losses, including back-to-back shutouts against Cincinnati and Iowa State.
However, Cougars quarterback Zeon Chriss provides a spark as a mobile quarterback. In his start against TCU Horned Frogs, Chriss rushed for 97 yards and scored a rushing touchdown, completing 15 of 18 passes. Although injured against Kansas, he is expected to play. His ability to make big plays on the ground can lead to quick scores and increase the game's overall point total.
Meanwhile Utes running back Micah Bernard had one of his worst performances of the year against TCU with 4.2 yards per carry, but should find more success against a Houston defense ranked 78th in defense success rate. Houston allows 4.4 yards per rush (81st), making them susceptible to the Utes' strong rushing attack. With Utah's offensive line creating opportunities against a weaker defensive front, Bernard could find more running lanes, increasing his effectiveness and contributing to higher scoring drives.
This is a "hold your nose" play, but as long as Chriss and Bernard are in the game, these defenses might be getting too much credit.
Week 9 best bet: Navy Midshipmen (+13) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The argument for Notre Dame covering this spread focuses on Fighting Irish's tough schedule, facing teams like Texas A&M, Louisville and Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Navy's best win has been against 6-1 Memphis.
However, I love the Midshipmen to cover +13. Navy's offensive identity is built on a powerful rushing attack, complemented by an evolving passing game. They average 277 rushing yards per game, third-best in the FBS, allowing them to control the clock effectively. Their offensive line excels, leading the nation in tackles for loss allowed and third in sacks allowed, providing stability and protection. This has translated into red zone efficiency, with Navy scoring 22 touchdowns on 23 attempts, leading in touchdown percentage.
Under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, Navy is expanding its passing game with sophisticated concepts like run-pass options and play action. Quarterback Blake Horvath showcases efficiency, big-play capability and dual-threat ability. He leads in yards per pass attempt (12.3) and is tied for the third most rushing scores (10) by a quarterback.
Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels OVER 65.5 points
Result: Boise State won 29-24
This matchup is strength versus strength with two high-scoring offenses. Boise State averages 45 points per game, second nationally, while UNLV also has a strong offensive presence, averaging 39 points (12th in the nation). Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score prolifically.
The key to Boise State's offense is running back and Heisman favorite (+225) Ashton Jeanty. He is difficult to defend and has exceptional contact balance, allowing him to absorb tackles and stay on his feet. This makes him hard to bring down on first contact, as he pinballs off defenders and continues gaining yards. He leads the nation in rushing yards (1,248) and rushing scores (17). Jeanty averages 9.9 yards per carry and his ability to break away for long touchdown runs can quickly increase the score.
Defensively, both Boise State and UNLV have each allowed 21 touchdowns and forced only four field goals, indicating struggles in stopping opponents in the red area. UNLV recently allowed three rushing scores to Oregon State and now faces the challenge of stopping Jeanty.
With both teams capable of scoring quickly and often, expect a fast-paced game with numerous scoring drives, likely pushing the total over 65.5 points.
This is the best rushing offense Notre Dame has faced recently, with four of its past five wins ranked 70th or worse in rushing yards. Navy ranks eighth in rushing success rate and No. 1 in EPA per play on offense because of Horvath's passing abilities. The Midshipmen have a real chance to win outright (+380).