We're two weeks from the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, and if my social media mentions are any indication, it appears people have begun to think about the endgame here.
The 2024 college football season has been a delightful mix of paradigm-shifting upsets and big games that exceeded expectations. Everyone in the SEC has lost at least once -- it's the first time that's been the case this early in the season since 2007, and you know how much I love 2007 references -- and the best unbeaten team, Oregon, ranks just fifth in SP+ and eighth in FPI.
The best teams aren't producing the best résumés, and it's making the playoff race both messy and delightfully inclusive. Right now the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Iowa State (48.1%) and Boise State (46.0%) better playoff odds than Alabama (43.5%), while BYU (41.8%) is higher than Clemson (40.3%). In all, 28 teams have at least a 6% chance of making the 12-team field, including Illinois and an increasingly solid Colorado.
The final six weeks of this season, then, are going to be absolutely mad in the best possible way. Georgia's win over Texas made the SEC race as murky as possible, the Big 12 is always just one chaotic week away from a total mess, and the two other (particularly enormous) power conferences, the Big Ten and ACC, are praying they don't stumble into "three teams go unbeaten in conference play" scenarios.
This is a lot to keep track of! So, as November creeps ever closer on the calendar, let's take stock. Where does each power conference race stand? Which teams are most likely to position themselves well for an at-large playoff bid? And what the heck happens if Army or Navy beats Notre Dame? Let's dive in.
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Group of 5
What the CFP rankings would (or should) look like
We're indeed still a couple of weeks away from the first round of CFP rankings, but for the purpose of clarity, let's take a stab at what the current hierarchy might look like.
A few years ago I learned that by combining poll averages (AP and coaches polls) with a computer average derived from both power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and strength of record), we can approximate the CFP committee's thinking pretty well. This almost BCS-style rating lines up with what the committee produces most of the time, enough so that when the committee does something different -- such as, say, placing Alabama ahead of unbeaten Florida State in last season's final rankings -- it stands out.
Here's what this BCS-style approach produces for this week. The top nine teams are identical to the current AP poll, but I noted some differences elsewhere.
1. Oregon (7-0)
2. Georgia (6-1)
3. Penn State (6-0)
4. Ohio State (5-1)
5. Texas (6-1)
6. Miami (7-0)
7. Tennessee (6-1)
8. LSU (6-1)
9. Clemson (6-1)
10. Notre Dame (6-1) -- 12th in AP
11. Iowa State (7-0) -- 10th in AP
12. Indiana (7-0) -- 13th in AP
13. BYU (7-0) -- 11th in AP
14. Texas A&M (6-1)
15. Alabama (5-2)
16. Kansas State (6-1)
17. Ole Miss (5-2) -- 18th in AP
18. Missouri (6-1) -- 21st in AP
19. Boise State (5-1) -- 17th in AP
20. Pitt (6-0) -- 19th in AP
21. SMU (6-1) -- 22nd in AP
22. Illinois (6-1) -- 20th in AP
23. Army (7-0)
24. Navy (6-0)
25. South Carolina (4-3) -- one vote in AP
Oregon isn't yet trusted by the predictive algorithms that remember the Ducks' early-season underachievement, but with zero losses and a win over the No. 4 team, Oregon is the obvious No. 1 for now. In all, the Big Ten has three of the top four but only four of the top 21; that league has a very top-heavy race, while the SEC, with eight of the top 18 teams, loses clarity by the week.
Of the 10 remaining unbeaten teams, nine are accounted for here. The 10th? Liberty, which has both played against a terribly weak schedule and failed to dominate it. The Flames are 62nd in these BCS-style ratings. It's really hard to find a path to the CFP for them unless a ton of other Group of 5 teams lose and they actually start to dominate bad teams.
Meanwhile, Army and Navy, both unbeaten, are behind one-loss Boise State at the moment, but both get shots at Notre Dame in the coming weeks, so if either reaches 12-0, it'll likely pass the Broncos.
SEC forecast
Favorites (title odds of 20% or higher, per SP+): Texas (24.6%), LSU (21.3%)
All of a sudden, the SEC has gotten messy. If Texas had beaten Georgia in Austin on Saturday night, the Longhorns would likely have moved over 50% here; instead, they're one of four teams between 16% and 25%.
Despite a tiebreaker disadvantage with Georgia, the Horns still hold the edge here primarily because of the remaining schedule: While Georgia still has to play two SP+ top-10 teams (Ole Miss and Tennessee), plus a rising Florida in Jacksonville, Texas gets Florida at home and doesn't play anyone currently ranked higher than No. 14 Texas A&M. The Horns therefore have about twice as good a chance of winning out (38%) as the team that just beat them (19%).
Then there's LSU. After a shaky start to the season, Brian Kelly's Tigers have overachieved against SP+ projections for three straight games, beating Ole Miss and blowing out Arkansas in the process. They're one of only two teams to remain unbeaten in SEC play, which means they have a mulligan that most other contenders don't. If they go 1-1 over their next two games (at Texas A&M, Alabama at home), they'll be wonderfully positioned to get to the finish line at 7-1.
Fighting chance (title odds of 10-20%): Georgia (16.8%), Texas A&M (16.1%)
In the New England Patriots' last title season with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady (2018), they looked the part of a dynasty at times, but they also plodded through portions of the regular season in third gear. They underachieved against the spread by at least 9.5 points on five occasions in a 13-game span, but when it was time to shift into gear, they did so. After winning their final regular-season game in blowout fashion, they overachieved against the spread by more than a touchdown in every playoff game and won the Super Bowl.
Georgia has definitely put off some Patriots-like vibes in recent years, underachieving against lesser opponents before hitting an impressive stride later on. And in seven games this season, Kirby Smart's Bulldogs underachieved against SP+ projections by at least 20 points three times. In Week 3, they barely beat Kentucky. They fell to seventh in SP+ a few weeks ago thanks to this underachievement.
Oh yeah, and they've played the No. 5 and No. 9 teams in the BCS-style rankings above, both away from home, and won by a combined 64-18. SP+ is not (and never will be) programmed to ignore certain games, so it therefore discounts the Dawgs as merely the fourth-best team in the country right now. And with games against Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee (only one of which is in Athens) in the coming weeks, they appear unlikely, on paper, to win out and reach the SEC championship game. But fifth-gear Georgia is still the best team in the country, as evidenced by what we saw in Austin on Saturday night, and the Dawgs almost certainly have a better than 17% chance of winning the SEC.
Also: Hello there, Texas A&M! The Aggies are the only 4-0 team in league play, and while they looked unamazing against Mississippi State in Starkville, they remained 14th overall in SP+.
Basically, the four projected favorites here are (a) the two best teams and (b) the two teams still unbeaten in league play. Between them, LSU and A&M have a 37% title chance; the winner of Saturday's game in College Station will command most of that 37% a week from now.
Long shots (title odds of 1-10%): Tennessee (9.6%), Alabama (5.9%), Missouri (3.4%), Ole Miss (1.8%)
Tennessee's defense was once again brilliant in Saturday's 24-17 win over Alabama in Knoxville. SP+ is still trying to catch up to how good the Vols are on that side of the ball -- they've overachieved against defensive projections in every game this year. But the Vols have had the worst non-Oklahoma offense in SEC play.
Poor offense is holding Tennessee at ninth overall in SP+, and with a road trip to Georgia looming in a few weeks, that makes the Vols unlikely to finish 7-1 in league play. Alabama and Ole Miss, meanwhile, grade out a hair better overall but have two conference losses and therefore need lots of help to get to the SEC title game. Missouri's odds will increase if the Tigers win at Alabama this weekend, but that doesn't appear particularly likely.
Odds of finishing the regular season 10-2 or better: Texas (80.3%), Tennessee (74.7%), Georgia (63.5%), Missouri (42.7%), LSU (39.6%), Texas A&M (33.4%), Ole Miss (31.9%), Alabama (23.5%)
The above numbers told us who's most likely to win the conference, but let's talk about who's still in position to snare an at-large CFP bid. In the offseason, I calculated that against an average SEC schedule, a top-level team would win about one fewer game overall than against an average ACC or Big 12 schedule. The Big Ten is about 0.5 wins behind the SEC in that regard, but in crafting a list of potential at-large teams, it seems pretty useful to look at which SEC or Big Ten teams are most likely to get to 10-2, and which ACC or Big 12 teams are most likely to get to 11-1.
As we see, the SEC is still in pretty good shape to land a solid chunk of at-large bids. Based on the numbers, of the eight teams listed above, 3.9 of them should get to 10-2 or better, and while some (Missouri and Ole Miss) have lighter schedules than others (Georgia and Alabama), that's still decent shorthand for how many bids the conference could expect. (I realize that SEC teams with particularly hard schedules could potentially get in at 9-3, but I'm not ready to go there yet. There are too many zero- and one-loss teams elsewhere.)
Biggest remaining games: LSU at Texas A&M (Oct. 26), Missouri at Alabama (Oct. 26), Alabama at LSU (Nov. 9), Georgia at Ole Miss (Nov. 9), Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16), Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30)
This coming Saturday features a pair of games that are huge for different reasons. The winner of LSU-Texas A&M will indeed remain unbeaten in conference play and remain a co-favorite, at worst, with Texas (if the Longhorns survive a trip to Nashville against giant killer Vanderbilt, anyway), while the LSU-A&M loser's odds will likely fall into the single digits. Meanwhile, Missouri-Alabama is an elimination game of sorts. Alabama can't afford a third loss, and while Mizzou is still 6-1, the Tigers just haven't looked the part of a playoff team or SEC contender, so they need to either start doing so immediately or bow out of both races.
Big Ten forecast
Favorites: Oregon (35.6%), Ohio State (26.3%), Penn State (26.1%)
The SEC race has gotten messier in recent weeks, but the Big Ten has trended in the opposite direction. Your favorites are Oregon and whoever wins in Happy Valley in a week and a half, Ohio State or Penn State. Oregon is No. 1 in the polls, and while Ohio State is still the darling of the predictive metrics, the Buckeyes lost some margin for error in Eugene. Winning at Penn State is likely a must for their Big Ten title hopes.
Fighting chance: Indiana (10.6%)
Curt Cignetti's first Indiana squad is one of the stories of the season, starting 7-0 and getting ready to host "College GameDay" for the first time. The Hoosiers remain secondary contenders for two primary reasons, however. First, though they're up to 12th in SP+, they're still a tier below the three favorites. Second, they have to travel to Columbus in late November. Their odds of finishing the season with an excellent record are good, but earning a spot in the Big Ten championship game is still a long shot, especially considering these odds don't take quarterback Kurtis Rourke's recent thumb injury into account.
Long shots: none
Despite most teams having played only four conference games, only six currently have either zero or one loss in Big Ten play: the four teams above, plus Illinois (3-1) and Wisconsin (3-1). The Fighting Illini are projected 20-point underdogs at Oregon this weekend, which will all but eliminate them barring a huge upset, and while Wisconsin has looked utterly spectacular over the past three weeks, the Badgers have to play both Penn State and Oregon in the coming weeks.
Odds of 10-2 or better: Oregon (96.6%), Penn State (91.1%), Indiana (88.2%), Ohio State (79.7%), Illinois (15.4%), Wisconsin (0.9%), Nebraska (0.6%)
We do have one extremely awkward scenario brewing here, but it remains a long shot. The conference has three remaining unbeaten teams -- Oregon, Penn State and Indiana -- and because the Big Ten is now obnoxiously large, none of these three teams play each other. Technically, all three could finish 9-0 in Big Ten play. If you're an Indiana fan still peeved about how the Big Ten changed its own rules to assure Ohio State a spot in the Big Ten championship game back in the 2020 COVID season, you're probably already annoyed at the thought of going unbeaten and still getting snubbed. But SP+ says there's only a 0.7% chance that all three get to the finish line unbeaten.
This will probably take care of itself, though this is a good warning for what happens when you ditch divisions (which I still think was a great thing overall) and expand your conference so dramatically.
Biggest remaining games: Ohio State at Penn State (Nov. 2), Indiana at Ohio State (Nov. 23)
Illinois could play itself into the picture this coming weekend at Oregon, but the odds don't favor that. For now, this is a four-team race that will probably be a two-team race after the two games above.
ACC forecast
Favorites: Miami (46.3%), Clemson (26.8%)
After rising as high as seventh in SP+ after four weeks, Miami has settled in at 10th following three straight track-meet wins. The Hurricanes are an easy first overall in offensive SP+, and quarterback Cam Ward remains a major Heisman contender, but the defense has allowed 39 points per game during this three-game run, and, well, ask 2022 USC what happens when your offense has to score 40-plus in every game. Eventually you falter.
Granted, you have to have someone to falter against, and no remaining opponent on Miami's schedule ranks higher than 37th in SP+. Even with their ratings slipping a little, the Hurricanes are projected favorites of at least 13 points in every remaining regular-season game. They would be minor favorites at best against Clemson in the ACC championship game, but if they get there at 12-0, they're probably in the CFP regardless of that result. Plus, Clemson has a lot more hurdles to clear between now and then.
Fighting chance: SMU (17.3%)
Since falling to BYU in Week 2 -- a result that looks infinitely better now than it did then -- SMU has won four straight games, three by at least 24 points. The Mustangs are projected favorites in each remaining game. Playing at 6-1 Duke and hosting unbeaten Pitt over the next two weeks is anything but a slam dunk, but if they get past that unscathed, they're staring an 8-0 conference record in the face.
Also, yes, we've got another "three unbeaten teams" nightmare scenario here, with none of Miami, Clemson and SMU facing each other in the regular season. (Pitt plays both Clemson and SMU.) SP+ says there's only a 1.9% chance of that happening, but man, what an awful look that would be.
Long shots: Pitt (4.0%), Virginia Tech (2.9%), Louisville (1.2%)
Like Indiana's, Pitt's SP+ ranking is lower than that of the other contenders despite its unbeaten record. The Panthers are up to 30th overall, but they've played four power conference opponents with a combined record of 14-14 and an average SP+ ranking of 49.3, and they beat those four teams by a combined 17 points. They have yet to play a top-40 opponent, and they've got three coming up in the next five games. It would be a spectacular story if they kept winning, but it's not incredibly likely.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is surging. The Hokies have overachieved against SP+ projections by more than two touchdowns for three straight games and are up to 25th in SP+. Despite a poor nonconference run, they're 2-1 in league play and have a 6.9% chance of winning out in the regular season. They're unlikely contenders, but they could make things interesting.
Odds of 11-1 or better: Miami (86.6%), Notre Dame (43.8%), SMU (19.9%), Clemson (19.9%), Pitt (11.5%)
We're raising the bar to 11-1 here for the ACC and Big 12, but Miami is quite likely to clear that bar. We'll include ACC-adjacent Notre Dame and its nearly 50-50 shot here, too.
Biggest remaining games: Louisville at Clemson (Nov. 2), Pitt at SMU (Nov. 2), Clemson at Virginia Tech (Nov. 9), Clemson at Pitt (Nov. 16), Pitt at Louisville (Nov. 23)
Clemson is basically the ACC's gatekeeper. If any of the three ACC long shots want to insert themselves into the race, they'll have to go through the Tigers to do it. And considering how well Clemson has played since that season-opening dud against Georgia, that feels unlikely. (It also feels like the Tigers have better odds than 20% of winning out.)
Big 12 forecast
Favorites: Iowa State (30.1%), BYU (28.2%), Kansas State (26.7%)
ISU and BYU both remained unbeaten with thrilling survive-and-advance wins in Week 8: BYU survived Oklahoma State's best performance of the season and scored the winning TD with 10 seconds left in a Friday night thriller, while ISU trailed for much of the way against UCF but also charged ahead in the final minute. The Cyclones are now 19th in SP+, and the Cougars are 22nd, and until one of them loses, the title race is pretty straightforward.
That said, three of ISU's next five games are projected within 3.9 points, and four of BYU's are within 7.2. The Big 12 is the ultimate parity conference, with few teams really possessing more talent than anyone else. And if or when one of them slips, it appears Kansas State might be best positioned to take advantage. Since their frustrating loss at BYU, the Wildcats have won two home blowouts and survived Colorado on the road. They're 16th in SP+ and are projected favorites of at least 11 points in each of their next four games before a Week 14 toss-up game against Iowa State.
Fighting chance: none
There are still six teams at either 4-0 or 3-1 in conference play, but K-State, Iowa State and BYU have separated themselves enough from a quality perspective to hold a pretty solid odds advantage.
Long shots: Colorado (5.1%), Cincinnati (4.5%), Texas Tech (1.9%), TCU (1.8%)
Colorado, Cincinnati and Texas Tech are all 3-1, and while Texas Tech plummeted in SP+ following a gross blowout loss to Baylor, Colorado and Cincy have climbed to 40th and 41st, respectively, after some early-season difficulties. They play this weekend in what is basically an elimination game; Cincinnati still has to play Iowa State and Kansas State, but if Colorado were to beat the Bearcats, the Buffaloes would be extremely well-positioned to make a run at an 8-1 conference record.
Odds of 11-1 or better: BYU (42.4%), Iowa State (37.6%), Kansas State (20.5%)
On average, only one of these teams is getting to 11-1, and this is therefore still looking like a one-bid league. That doesn't make it any less ridiculously entertaining, though.
Biggest remaining games: Cincinnati at Colorado (Oct. 26), Texas Tech at TCU (Oct. 26), Texas Tech at Iowa State (Nov. 2), Colorado at Texas Tech (Nov. 9), Cincinnati at Iowa State (Nov. 16), Cincinnati at Kansas State (Nov. 23), Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30), TCU at Cincinnati (Nov. 30)
When you've still got seven teams with at least long-shot odds, you've still got a lot of huge games coming up. The long shots are pairing off this weekend, so that will pare down the contenders list moving forward.
Group of 5 forecast
Including a fifth automatic playoff bid, and therefore assuring that at least one champion from the Group of 5 conferences will get in, has been a life-giver this season. And it makes games like this Friday's battle between UNLV and Boise State one of the most important of the coming weekend.
Technically, we could get more than one G5 team in the field if, say, Boise State wins out to finish 12-1 (with just a tight loss to No. 1 Oregon), Army or Navy beats Notre Dame and finishes 12-0, and the Big 12 implodes on itself and produces a three-loss champion. But that's not likely at this stage, so let's pile all the G5 conferences into one giant race to follow.
Conference favorites: Army (57.7%, AAC), Boise State (53.7%, MWC), Liberty (49.0%, CUSA), Western Kentucky (36.9%, CUSA), Toledo (35.6%, MAC), Louisiana (34.1%, Sun Belt), UNLV (32.0%, MWC), Navy (22.6%, AAC), Georgia Southern (21.5%, Sun Belt)
The AAC, Mountain West and Conference USA have obvious favorites at this point, while the MAC and Sun Belt are still a bit blurry. Army leads the way in the AAC in part because of a rise to 36th in SP+ and in part because the Black Knights are already 6-0 in conference play. Their Week 11 trip to North Texas could be challenging, but if they reach 7-1, they're probably in (and they're probably reaching 7-1).
Boise State and UNLV currently have a combined 86% chance of winning the MWC, so Friday night's battle might not be the only time they play this season. Still, the loser will have two overall losses, and at this point it's going to be an awfully tall task for a two-loss team to get the G5's auto-bid. (The potential exception: Tulane, as we'll discuss below.)
Fighting chances: Texas State (15.0%, Sun Belt), Buffalo (13.6%, MAC), James Madison (13.4%, Sun Belt), Miami (Ohio) (12.6%, MAC), Bowling Green (11.5%, MAC)
In terms of average SP+ ratings, the Sun Belt remains the best G5 conference, but while its depth is a strong suit when it comes to a fun title race -- right now, four teams have between a 13% and 34% title chance -- the conference has all but eliminated itself from the playoff race. Only Louisiana and Louisiana-Monroe have fewer than two losses, and neither is likely to win out.
Long shots (in this case, title odds of 5-10%): Western Michigan (9.6%, MAC), Tulane (9.4%, AAC), Memphis (9.2%, AAC), Jacksonville State (7.9%, CUSA), Ohio (6.8%, MAC), Sam Houston (5.6%, CUSA), Colorado State (5.4%, MWC), Eastern Michigan (5.2%, MAC)
Tulane and Memphis might still have playoff chances. Memphis has lost only to Navy -- which might be damning in terms of conference tiebreakers -- but the Tigers have a 28% chance of winning out and finishing 7-1 in AAC play. Tulane, meanwhile, has lost only to Kansas State and Oklahoma; if the Green Wave win out, they'll have an intriguing playoff case, but they have to play three of the AAC's four other top teams (North Texas in Week 9, Navy in Week 12, Memphis in Week 14) before potentially playing the other one (Army) in the AAC championship game. That's a rough road, though they might have the upside to pull it off.
Odds of finishing regular season unbeaten: Liberty (21.3%), Army (7.1%), Navy (1.1%)
Odds of finishing regular season with 0-1 losses: Liberty (62.1%), Army (48.2%), Memphis (28.1%), Louisiana (23.1%), Boise State (21.3%), UNLV (17.7%), Navy (13.1%)
If we ignore Liberty for strength-of-schedule reasons, it's extremely unlikely that the G5 produces an unbeaten (and playoff-viable) team. That's good news for Boise State, though the Broncos might still have to beat UNLV twice -- and avoid a road slip-up against a team like San José State. (And if they don't, and everyone ends up with two or more losses, might an unbeaten Liberty end up getting a look?)
Biggest remaining games: Boise State at UNLV (Oct. 25), Navy vs. Notre Dame (Oct. 26), Louisiana at Texas State (Oct. 29), Jacksonville State at Liberty (Oct. 30), Tulane at Navy (Nov. 16), Army vs. Notre Dame (Nov. 23), WKU at Liberty (Nov. 23), Memphis at Tulane (Nov. 28), Liberty at Sam Houston (Nov. 30), Oregon State at Boise State (Nov. 30)
Navy gets the first crack at Notre Dame this weekend, then Army does the same in a few weeks. Those are intriguing quality-win opportunities. But Boise State-UNLV on Friday night is huge, too.