It's likely that in a 12-team playoff, there will be multiple teams with two losses, but those teams still have to look like a national title contender.
In Saturday's loss to Tennessee, Alabama did not.
The playoff picture changed from top to bottom in Week 8 after Tennessee and Georgia emerged as winners of the two biggest games of the weekend. They were also two of the biggest risers in the College Football Playoff race.
Here's the weekly prediction of what the committee's top 12 might look like if its ranking were released today.
Remember, this is NOT a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it's a snapshot of who's in the driver's seat now, based on what they have done to this point.
The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
Projecting the top 12
1. Oregon Ducks (7-0)
Why they could be here: Oregon had a case for No. 1 last week after it beat Ohio State, and with Texas losing to Georgia on Saturday night, the door to the top spot was wide open for the Ducks. Oregon entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric. Less than a week after a thrilling 32-31 win against Ohio State, Oregon gave Purdue no chance at an upset, earning its first road shutout since 1992. The Ducks aren't going to get any bonus points for beating a 1-6 Purdue team, but they showed the committee consistency on a short week and left no doubt they were the better team. That was also Dillon Gabriel's fourth game this season completing at least 80% of his passes -- the most in the FBS.
Why they could be lower: The only reason Oregon would be lower is if the committee thinks Georgia is a better team despite its loss to Alabama. Georgia now has two statement wins -- against No. 1 Texas on the road and the season opener against Clemson. Oregon's best wins are against Boise State, Oregon State and Ohio State.
Need to know: By the time the selection committee meets for the first time, Oregon will have completed its most difficult stretch, having played Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan in less than a month. The Ducks can use wins against Illinois and Michigan to further boost their chances at the No. 1 seed as the committee's top team if Oregon finishes as the Big Ten champion. Why does that matter? Because the No. 1 seed gets the winner of the matchup between No. 8 and No. 9. If there aren't any upsets in the first round, which takes place on the home field of the higher seed, that would be the lowest-seeded opponent any of the top four teams could face.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Illinois
2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs now have two of the best wins in the country -- in the season opener against Clemson, which continues to look better each week, and on Saturday in Austin. While there was some wiggle room for debate before, it's now more clear the committee can (and will) overlook Alabama's head-to-head win because the teams no longer have identical records.
Why they could be higher: The committee would only put one-loss Georgia ahead of undefeated Oregon at this point if it believed the Bulldogs had the better combination of eye test and résumé. While there could be some in the room who think Georgia's wins against Texas and Clemson are better than Oregon's wins against Boise State and Ohio State, the loss to an Alabama team that continues to look so disjointed offensively would also be a point of conversation.
Need to know: There are no undefeated teams left in the SEC. Georgia and Texas could see each other again in the conference championship game, which will feature the top two teams in the league, but this race is far from over. LSU, Tennessee and Missouri each have one loss, too. If the Bulldogs run the table and beat Ole Miss and Tennessee along the way, though, they will have one of the best résumés in the country -- even if they finish as SEC runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 vs. Tennessee
3. Texas Longhorns (6-1)
Why they could be here: Georgia beat the Longhorns soundly on their own turf, leaving no doubt who was the better team and earning a critical head-to-head win that impacts both the SEC and playoff race. The head-to-head result would keep them behind Georgia, and the first loss of the season would drop them behind undefeated Oregon, which also has better wins than Texas.
Why they could be lower: The Longhorns' best wins are now against a three-loss Michigan team and a three-loss Oklahoma team -- two opponents that are competing for the most inept offense of the season. Before hosting Georgia, Texas had not faced an offense that ranked better than 71st in the country in scoring offense -- and Mississippi State was the leader at No. 71. When faced with its first elite opponent of the season, Texas couldn't keep up -- no matter which quarterback it used.
Need to know: Georgia and Texas could still face each other in the SEC championship game, but by slipping behind the Bulldogs in the SEC standings, their chance to earn a first-round bye as a conference champion just became a little more difficult. The renewed rivalries with Arkansas and Texas A&M are both on the road. They also have to travel to Vanderbilt, which will be confident from having beat Alabama earlier this season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Texas A&M
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1)
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes had a bye before hosting Nebraska next Saturday, and while Ohio State clearly looks like one of the most talented teams in the country, it is lacking a statement win. The 35-7 home win against Iowa (4-3) is the highlight on the résumé so far, as every other opponent is also unranked and has at least three losses. A one-point loss on the road to a top-five team isn't going to detract from the respect the committee members have for the talent on Ohio State's roster, but the schedule and head-to-head loss to the Ducks could hold back the Buckeyes at this point.
Why they could be higher: Ohio State is No. 2 in the country in total efficiency -- and ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies. Those are trademark statistics for past playoff teams. The reality, though, is that Ohio State's statistics have come against a nonconference lineup that includes Arkon (1-6), Western Michigan (4-3) and Marshall (4-3). If the committee has the Buckeyes higher, it's because of the sheer talent the members see.
Need to know: Ohio State plays only four road games this season and gets rival Michigan at home to close the regular season. If the Buckeyes lose at PSU on Nov. 2, their best road win would be either at Michigan State or at Northwestern. Playoff teams have overcome weaker schedules before, but they have to consistently look the part of a national title contender to compensate for it.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 2 at Penn State
5. Miami Hurricanes (7-0)
Why they could be here: The Canes haven't made it easy on themselves, but they've added back-to-back road wins to their résumé and scored at least 39 points in each. They've won each of their past three games by a touchdown or less, including a controversial call that went their way in the 38-34 win against Virginia Tech. None of their wins have come against ranked opponents.
Why they could be higher: Miami has an explosive offense, thanks to Heisman hopeful quarterback Cam Ward, and that has been a trait of past playoff teams. Miami entered Saturday ranked No. 5 in the country in offensive efficiency. The committee will notice four true road wins, including one against rival Florida.
Need to know: Miami just passed its toughest remaining test of the regular season, winning at Louisville, and is likely to go the entire season without facing a ranked opponent. That doesn't mean the committee won't respect a win against Duke, Georgia Tech or Syracuse, all teams above .500. What it does mean, though, is that if the Canes stumble down the stretch -- and don't win the ACC -- there's no guarantee they will earn an at-large bid. Miami's remaining strength of schedule is ranked No. 41 in the country. If Miami wins the ACC, it's a moot point.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Syracuse
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0)
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions aren't being punished for having a bye week, but their position changed because things happened around them -- and some of their wins were affected by how their opponents fared. USC's loss at Maryland was embarrassing for the Trojans, who now have four losses. Though the committee will recognize that PSU had to travel to L.A. to beat USC, the Nittany Lions couldn't score a touchdown in the first half, and the bend-but-don't-break defense overall helped keep USC in the game until overtime. It also didn't help PSU that Kansas State completely outplayed West Virginia in Morgantown, as the Nittany Lions' road win at WVU continues to lose its luster.
Why they could be higher: Penn State's Sept. 28 win against Illinois should remain a win against a ranked opponent after the Illini defeated Michigan. That is now PSU's best win. Penn State entered the week ranked No. 3 in ESPN's strength of record metric, trailing only Oregon and BYU.
Need to know: If Penn State's only loss of the season is to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions would still probably earn a spot in the committee's 12-team field, but seeding could be a question. Teams seeded Nos. 5-8 earn a first-round home game. If Penn State's best win is against Illinois, and other one-loss contenders have better résumés, the Nittany Lions might not be guaranteed home-field advantage.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State
7. LSU Tigers (6-1)
Why they could be here: The Tigers have won six straight since losing the season opener to USC, and now have two SEC road wins on their résumé (South Carolina and Arkansas). The Tigers are also ninth in the country in offensive efficiency, and the defense forced three turnovers against Arkansas. Each week, LSU has shown steady improvement, and the Oct. 12 win against Ole Miss helped legitimize the Tigers' playoff hopes.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could deem the Vols' win against Alabama better than LSU's home win against Ole Miss. And now that USC has dropped a fourth game, that season-opening loss to the Trojans took a bit of a hit. Wins against FCS Nicholls and a 3-4 South Alabama team also don't help LSU's playoff résumé.
Need to know: The selection committee considers common opponents, and if LSU and Tennessee are both competing for an at-large spot, LSU's win at Arkansas on Saturday will be a part of the conversation because the Vols lost to Arkansas. Both will also have played Alabama.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Texas A&M
8. Tennessee Volunteers (6-1)
Why they could be here: The Vols finally earned a much-needed statement win against a ranked opponent, beating rival Alabama on Saturday. That victory will help ease the blow of a close road loss to Arkansas in the selection committee meeting room. Wins against NC State and Oklahoma -- opponents that are a combined 8-7 -- aren't stellar, but if those teams finish above .500, the committee will respect them.
Why they could be lower: It was an ugly win Saturday, with three turnovers and 11 penalties for 95 yards. The Vols' defense has been the highlight when the offense has struggled, and there were back-to-back unimpressive weeks this month that included the loss to Arkansas and needing overtime to beat Florida at home.
Need to know: The committee could have a strong debate if the Vols finish as a two-loss team with a win against Alabama and loss at Georgia (the Dawgs and Vols play Nov. 16). They would have all beaten one another, but Tennessee would be a notch above Alabama because of the head-to-head win. The question is more if Tennessee's win against Bama would be enough to get into the playoff as a two-loss team. It would depend on how the Vols' opponents fare, how Tennessee looks down the stretch -- and how many other two-loss contenders are jockeying for those spots.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Georgia
9. Clemson Tigers (6-1)
Why they could be here: The Tigers held off a feisty Virginia team Saturday to earn their sixth straight win since a season-opening loss to Georgia. As good as Clemson has looked during its winning streak, though, the committee will recognize that Virginia is the only opponent Clemson has defeated with a winning record. None of Clemson's wins are against ranked teams, and four opponents have four losses each (FSU has six). Most, if not all, of the contenders ranked ahead of Clemson are either undefeated or have a better résumé.
Why they could be higher: Clemson finished with at least 500 yards for the fifth time this season, and even when it wasn't a flawless performance, the Tigers were still able to dominate another conference opponent. That has been a trend for the Tigers, who entered this week No. 6 in the country in ESPN's game control metric.
Need to know: Clemson's schedule becomes more challenging in November, as two of its next three games are on the road, and all three opponents -- Louisville, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh -- are above .500. It also will face one of the best defenses it has seen all season against rival South Carolina on Nov. 30. If Clemson has a second loss -- and doesn't win the ACC -- it's going to need help to earn an at-large bid because its schedule is No. 53 in the country.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Pitt
10. BYU Cougars (7-0)
Why they could be here: BYU entered Week 8 ranked No. 2 in the country in ESPN's strength of record metric, trailing only Oregon. A road win against SMU, a convincing win against Kansas State and now back-to-back league Big 12 wins against Arizona and Oklahoma State are keeping the Cougars in the conversation.
Why they could be lower: BYU had three turnovers against Oklahoma State and the defense gave up 421 total yards to the Cowboys and struggled to get stops on third down.
Need to know: Three of the next five games are on the road, and ESPN Analytics gives the Cougars at least a 50% chance to win each of their remaining games -- except for Saturday at UCF. The Knights have a 51.4% chance to win.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at UCF
11. Indiana Hoosiers (7-0)
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have proven they're not a fluke. Under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, IU has dominated every team it has faced, including Nebraska on Saturday. The Hoosiers have scored at least 40 points in six straight games, extending the longest streak in school history. Indiana is the only team in the FBS that hasn't given up a point in the first quarter, and the Hoosiers haven't trailed once this season. They also have a potential Heisman contender in quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has helped them win every game by double digits.
Why they could be lower: IU is currently ranked No. 112 in the country in strength of schedule. The Hoosiers don't have any wins against ranked opponents, and only Maryland (4-3) and Nebraska (5-2) have winning records. The committee will also note a win against an FCS opponent (Western Illinois).
Need to know: Indiana doesn't face Oregon or Penn State during the regular season, so its best chance to impress the selection committee will be on Nov. 23 at Ohio State. If that's their only loss of the season, and IU continues to win every other game in convincing fashion, the Hoosiers could be the Big Ten's fourth CFP team -- if the committee likes what it sees enough to look past a résumé that lacks a statement win.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Ohio State
12. Boise State Broncos (5-1)
Why they could be here: The Broncos' schedule separates them from other Group of 5 contenders. The three-point loss at Oregon on Sept. 7 looks even better after the Ducks' win against Ohio State, and Boise State also has a win against a 6-1 Washington State team.
Why they could be higher: The Broncos run deeper than their Heisman hopeful running back Ashton Jeanty. Boise State has the nation's third-best scoring offense (46.8 points per game), is No. 3 in total offense (523 yards per game) and also leads the nation in sacks (4.83 per game).
Need to know: Boise State has its most important game of the season Friday at UNLV in a game that will determine the leader in the Mountain West Conference and the league's top playoff contender. If the Broncos run the table and finish as a one-loss MWC champion -- as ESPN Analytics projects -- they should be a lock for a playoff spot. The bigger question would then be if Boise State can unseat the Big 12 champion for a first-round bye.
Toughest remaining game: Friday at UNLV
Based on the rankings above, the top four seeds would be: No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ), No. 2 Georgia (SEC champ), No. 3 Miami (ACC champ) and No. 4 BYU (Big 12 champ). Each would receive a bye. Eight remaining seeds would play on-campus first-round games. Those matchups would be: No. 12 Boise State (fifth conference champ) at No. 5 Texas; No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Ohio State; No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Penn State; and No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 LSU.