Welp, we had a decent Week 4, going 3-3 last week, with no thanks to the Arizona Cardinals for falling flat and crushing the hopes and dreams of many sports bettors and fantasy managers against the Washington Commanders.
But that's not going to happen to us again this week! Bye weeks are officially upon us, with four teams on the couch (Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers). With a slightly smaller slate this week, we're looking to rebound and get back to cashing tickets.
So, without further ado, let's talk some props that pop! -- Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Trevor Lawrence OVER 249.5 passing yards (+110)
Liz Loza: Maybe it was the premature leaf peeping that I experienced while in Bristol this past week, but I came back to Los Angeles feeling inspired. Hopefully, that's the case for Lawrence as well. His play has been up and down, to say the least. In fact, he has yet to go over 220 passing yards thus far. However, as Daniel mentioned in the intro, we're speaking bounce-backs into existence this weekend.
The matchup figures to give T-Law a boost. Indianapolis has given up an average of 258 passing yards to opposing QBs. Justin Fields threw for a season-high 312 yards Sunday against this defense. With DE Kwity Paye expected to miss a second straight game, Lawrence should have more time to operate. He'll also have more of his proven chain-movers on the field, as TE Evan Engram is likely to return. Given the Jags' record (0-4), Lawrence will probably press (making OVER 0.5 INTs a solid wager) in a plus spot, pushing toward a passing total near 260 yards.
Geno Smith OVER 33.5 pass attempts (Even)
Dopp: This is my favorite bet of the week. Smith has been absolutely lights-out this year. He leads the NFL in passing yards, attempts and completions. The Seattle Seahawks have been letting him air it out early and often, even when they're ahead and winning (against the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 is the main example here).
Geno has hit this line in three of his four games, and even though the points total is only 42.5, the game plan should be to continue to let him doing what he does best. I do need to mention, the New York Giants have had only one QB hit this pass-attempt line, but this is what the Seahawks do best. I know Kenneth Walker III is a great RB and can help carry the load, but coming off of a loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 4, the Seahawks will be looking for revenge here in Week 5.
Even though Geno isn't getting into the end zone as much as he'd like, he's certainly making the most of his new OC's affinity for the passing game. You might like his yardage or completions line as well, but for me, I'm taking OVER 33.5 pass attempts against the Giants this week.
Running back props
D'Andre Swift 70+ rushing + receiving yards (-120)
Dopp: You might be thinking to yourself, Daniel, what are you doing? Swift has hit this line only one time this year. Trust me, I get what you're saying. But this is less about Swift and more about the Carolina Panthers' lackluster defense. So far this season, the Panthers have allowed four different RBs to hit this line, with three of them blowing past it with ease. J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, Chase Brown and Zack Moss all topped this mark, with the only team falling short being the Las Vegas Raiders (surprise, surprise).
Other than in Week 1, we've seen Swift get more involved in the passing game, and that's where his true value lies. Soaking up easy targets and turning them into big gains with his running ability. The Panthers are also giving up over 125 yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses, so let's keep this one short and sweet and agree that Swift has all the tools necessary to crush this line. This is one of my favorite bets of the weekend.
Roschon Johnson OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-105)
Loza: Swift was the star (and has been the primary ball carrier) of Chicago's backfield in Week 4. Still, Johnson has been increasingly involved over his past pair of outings. The second-year back leads the Bears in first-down rushes (seven) and is averaging 1.67 yards per rush after first contact. He has also recorded more red zone opportunities than Swift and found the end zone for the first time since 2023 last week.
Johnson figures to remain productive as Chicago's short-yardage specialist in Week 5. The Bears are 4-point favorites, suggesting the game flow should work in Johnson's favor. Additionally, Carolina has allowed the second-most rushing yards to RBs (an average of 126 per game to opposing backfields). Johnson might not top Swift's total touches, but he doesn't need more than his requisite eight carries to hit 30 rushing yards Sunday. I'll take the over.
Wide receiver props
Dontayvion Wicks 50+ receiving yards (-120)
Dopp: Did you see how many targets Wicks had in last week's game after Christian Watson went down? He finished with 13 targets on the day, the most for any Green Bay Packers WR this season. And with Christian Watson out "at least a week or so," per HC Matt LaFleur, I'm all-in on Wicks to help pick up the slack in Watson's absence. I do expect Jayden Reed to continue to get his, but Wicks has been building toward this opportunity for quite a while.
The biggest issue was the number of options in this passing game, and Watson was the biggest factor in Wicks not seeing more playing time. The Los Angeles Rams have allowed the 14th-most receiving yards to wide receivers, so they're middle of the pack, but this game is shaping up to be a potential shootout, given the deficiencies from both defensive squads right now, as the total is currently at 48.5 (the second highest of the week). Wicks is finally in a spot to produce, and I'm diving into this one with confidence.
Tight end props
Dalton Schultz OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-125)
Loza: I liked Schultz in fantasy with Tank Dell sidelined last week. His 3-34-0 stat line last week did little for fake football managers, but he recorded his highest fantasy point total of the season (6.5). Interestingly, Schultz drew the same number of looks (5) in Week 4 as he did the weekend before with Dell on the field.
Though Dell is expected to return Sunday, it seems unlikely Schultz will experience a dip in volume. Not only is he the team's uncontested TE1, but in what's projected to be a close game (Houston -1), there figures to be plenty of back-and-forth between the two squads. That should provide Schultz with at least five opportunities to match his yardage total from Week 4. Also working in his favor is the absence of safety Taylor Rapp (concussion). Buffalo gave up 26 yards to Isaiah Likely on a single catch during SNF. Schultz should flirt with 30 receiving yards this weekend.