The San Francisco 49ers continue to dominate the NFL, and now the awards markets are beginning to reflect that. The 49ers now roster the favorites to win both MVP and Offensive Player of the Year. Here is how those and other awards markets shifted last week.
MVP
Favorite: Brock Purdy (-215)
Last week's favorite: Dak Prescott (+165)
Sunday caused perhaps the biggest shakeup in the MVP market all season. Brock Purdy threw for four touchdowns, while Dak Prescott struggled in a loss against the Buffalo Bills. Purdy went from +175 entering last week to -215 as he becomes the first odds-on favorite in this market all season. Prescott cratered from +160 to +650.
This week features yet another pivotal MVP battle as the top two favorites square off. Purdy's 49ers are home favorites over Lamar Jackson's Ravens. Jackson is +450 despite ranking 14th in combined touchdowns and 15th in passing yards.
The case for Purdy is obvious. He is the quarterback of the best team and has the best statistics. Usually, that is a winning MVP formula. But will voters give him the award? That is the ultimate question.
Offensive Player of the Year
Favorite: Christian McCaffrey (-150)
Last week's favorite: Tyreek Hill (-215)
The other complication in the Brock Purdy MVP case is Christian McCaffrey's rise in the Offensive Player of the Year market. There have only been two instances of the MVP and Offensive Player of the Year being separate players on the same team. Both came with Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk in 1999 and 2001.
McCaffrey leads the NFL in scrimmage yards and is tied for the NFL lead in touchdowns, so he has a clear case to win this award. He had trailed Tyreek Hill, who was on pace to break Calvin Johnson's receiving yards record. But the combination of a dominant McCaffrey game and Hill's injury absence flipped this market.
Hill needs 458 receiving yards for 2,000 this season, and he needs 423 yards to break the single-season record. Both tasks are a lot more daunting after not playing last week. But if Hill returns and produces at his normal high level, this could be a very tight race down the stretch.
Defensive Player of the Year
Favorite: Micah Parsons (+100)
Last week's favorite: Parsons (-115)
Parsons' odds slipped slightly after the Cowboys loss last week, while Myles Garrett's Browns inched closer to the playoffs with a win over the Bears. Neither candidate had a relevant stat line. T.J. Watt's odds shortened slightly to +450 after he recorded two sacks. Watt now leads the NFL with 16 sacks.
However, 15 of the past 16 Defensive Players of the Year made the playoffs, and Watt's Steelers are now +900 to advance. Watt will likely need to have a decisive statistical edge on Parsons or Garrett to win.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-10000)
Last week's favorite: Stroud (-10000)
C.J. Stroud sat out last week, but there was very little movement in this market. Stroud remains a prohibitive favorite. If Stroud returns this season, this award seems like it is over. Puka Nacua and Jahmyr Gibbs continue to jockey for second, but they seem unlikely to catch Stroud, even if he doesn't return.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Favorite: Jalen Carter (-5000)
Last week's favorite: Carter (-700)
After weeks of doing very little statistically, Jalen Carter now has a touchdown and a sack in consecutive weeks. Carter's statistics are now as good as any rookie defender, and he faces the Giants' woeful offensive line in two of the next three weeks. While this race isn't over like Offensive Rookie of the Year, if Will Anderson Jr remains out, there may not be enough time left for another contender to emerge.
Coach of the Year
Favorite: Dan Campbell (+260)
Last week's favorite: Campbell (+260)
This race is as tight as ever, with Dan Campbell, DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen all sitting between +260 and +300. Campbell's case still seems dependent on winning out, as 18 of the past 20 winners had four-win improvements. Ryans and Steichen are more classic candidates as first-year coaches leading turnarounds. They seem like the two most-likely winners.
Sean Payton's loss last week dropped him to 25-1, but the Broncos have the second-easiest schedule remaining and are +240 to make the playoffs. Kevin Stefanski (+900) also could be a strong candidate after going 7-10 last season and using four different starting quarterbacks.
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