Welcome to Week 18! As always, bet on the final week of the NFL regular season with extreme caution. There are many conflicting motivations this week: Some players have statistical incentives to reach, but only some teams care about helping them get there. Some teams without a prayer for the playoffs are fighting for one last win, and some are "1-2-3 Cancun!"-ing their way through the last few quarters.
Here are my eight favorite bets for the upcoming weekend of NFL action, with a same-game parlay to boot.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Teaser and SGP
Game picks
Minnesota Vikings +3 (-120) at Detroit Lions
In one of the few games in which both teams are expected to be competitive, we have a more predictable environment, so we can more reliably find edges. While I do make the Lions a small favorite in this game, I only have them as a 1-point choice given the current state of their defensive roster. Getting the key number of three with the Vikings, even at the juice, is the side we'd like to be on here.
As the San Francisco 49ers reminded us in last week's game, this Lions defense is lacking a pass rush and is extremely vulnerable over the middle of the field, where the linebacking corps has been decimated. Alex Anzalone will not be back for this game, so Minnesota should be able to work the middle of the field and find more success on the ground than they did in their first outing. Even on the outside, the one-on-one opportunities for the Vikings' receivers look juicier, given the absence of corner Carlton Davis III.
With a total set at 56.5, the highest of any game this season, the market expects the Lions to keep pace with the Vikings' scoring. But Minnesota will have linebacker Blake Cashman, who was absent in the Week 7 contest, back for this game, and the lack of David Montgomery will hurt the Lions' ability to pick up blitzes with the back. Again, I think it's a close one, but so long as I'm getting the field goal, I lean Vikings.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets under 38.5 total points (-105)
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is expected to miss this game, putting Tyler Huntley in the starting spot. Huntley led the Dolphins to a respectable 20 points last week against the Cleveland Browns, but that included a garbage time touchdown off of a turnover deep in Cleveland territory. In the other Huntley starts this season, the Dolphins have scored 12, 15, and 10 total points.
Miami put 32 on the Jets in an overtime win with Tua at the helm in Week 14, and the Jets handed 26 back, but that was with both teams going two-for-two on fourth-down tries and neither team turning the ball over. It's unreasonable to expect as clean of an operation from the Dolphins given the quarterback change, but it's also unreasonable from the Jets, who simply have looked that clean only two or three times this season.
Since Miami is still alive in the playoff race and a backup is in at quarterback, the defense will rise to the occasion to keep the Dolphins' postseason prayers alive. Meanwhile, in Aaron Rodgers' potential last game as a Jet, I cannot imagine we'll get anything less than brazen Davante Adams force-feeding.
Player props
Jared Goff over 274.5 passing yards (-105)
While the Vikings defense has been excellent at creating turnovers and getting key stops this year, they do give up a healthy amount of passing yards, either in garbage time in a sure win, or because of explosive plays surrendered behind their exotic blitz looks. Ten of the 15 quarterbacks with a posted passing yards line have gone over against the Vikings this season, including Goff in Week 7 when he had 280 yards on a 250-yard line in a game the Lions mostly led.
Goff has rarely played on a true trailing game script this year, but when he does, he can rack up the yardage He had over 300 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2 and nearly 500 against the Buffalo Bills in a Week 15 extravaganza. If he's stuck trailing the Vikings in the second half -- a reasonable outcome to expect, given the high total projected -- then we can expect him to clear this number. But even on a neutral or leading script, the Lions' pass defense is so suspect that a run-heavy second-half approach from Detroit may not be tenable.
Without Montgomery to run the ball, it will be hard for Detroit to fully rely on the running game. This game will have to run through Goff.
Ja'Marr Chase over 7.5 receptions (-134)
It looks like the Cincinnati Bengals will be without RB Chase Brown for Saturday's must-win game, which, oddly enough, I think will impact Ja'Marr Chase's usage. Brown has been a big-time receiver behind the line of scrimmage for Cincinnati, creating explosive plays out of screens and check-downs. Absent his big-play ability, I think the Bengals need to get Chase involved on designed touches at or near the line of scrimmage to replace some of those quick-game layups that will be absent.
Accordingly, I lean toward an over on receptions instead of receiving yards for Chase, who the Bengals had some (relative) difficulty getting the ball to in their first matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (nine targets, six catches, 86 yards). Given how famously physical the Steelers cornerbacks are willing to play against the Bengals, it again is imperative that Chase be given opportunities on screens and swings to create more after-the-catch chances.
Wide receiver Tee Higgins is also questionable approaching this game with an ankle/knee injury, and if he cannot go or leaves the game for any period of time, we should expect the Chase target funnel to be massive. Take this line now before it moves.
Lamar Jackson longest rush under 16.5 yards (-125)
A bit of a "hold your nose and pray" bet here, as Jackson gets a Cleveland Browns defense that bleeds explosive plays, but the Baltimore Ravens figure to be careful with Jackson, as they are 19.5-point favorites over the Browns and just need a win to secure the third seed in the AFC playoff picture. I cannot imagine this will be a heavy volume game for Jackson rushing, as he'll be instructed to be very careful on scrambles and likely won't be given designed run opportunities.
Jackson has 11 carries this year over the 16.5-yard figure, and of those 11, nine came in the second half of games, including seven in the fourth quarter. Jackson only really rips off huge runs when he needs to stay in bounds and make something happen late in big games, but if the Ravens have a big lead on the Browns, we'll see a quick hook on Jackson to preserve his health and legs for the playoff run. Barring a big scramble opportunity early in the game, I don't think Jackson sees the rushing volume necessary to get here.
Rushing unders on Lamar are always scary, but that's what Week 18 is all about!
Tyler Allgeier over 34.5 rushing yards (+105)
The Atlanta Falcons will still have something to play for, as they need a win (and a Buccaneers loss) to take the NFC South title and slip into the playoffs. They draw a Carolina Panthers defense that has been dreadful against the run this season and might be missing starting LB Josey Jewell (concussion) and DT A'Shawn Robinson (neck), both of whom did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Sixty-seven percent of running backs facing the Panthers this season have gone over their rushing yardage total by a margin of +23.5 yards, easily the highest margin among league defenses.
I prefer Allgeier (at 35-plus yards) to teammate Bijan Robinson, whose number has been inflated to 100 rushing yards, a towering figure. Allgeier just had a no-show game against the Washington Commanders, but in the four games previous rushed 11, 12, nine and eight times, respectively. That sort of usage should get us home against this woeful rush defense, especially if the Falcons build a big lead and shelve Robinson late in the fourth quarter to avoid a disaster Week 18 injury.
Keenan Allen over 49.5 receiving yards (-135)
The Chicago Bears aren't playing for much, save for good vibes and something positive to build on, and they get a Green Bay Packers team whose only motivation is a chance of getting the sixth seed instead of the seventh in the playoffs -- not exactly inspiring stuff. This could be a generally sleepy game, if not for the fact that the Packers and Bears hate each other. I think we still get strong outings from both sides.
Allen's most recent outing only saw him manage 25 yards on eight targets (that's appalling), but the entire Bears offense could get going against Green Bay. In the five weeks prior, Allen had 141, 82, 30, 73 and 86 yards, respectively. Of course, the Bears have been trailing for much of those games, and garbage-time production has helped inflate the numbers.
But the Bears will likely trail again in this game, as the Packers are 10-point favorites with some motivation to win. With Jaire Alexander shelved until the Super Bowl, the Packers are stuck giving snaps to shaky coverage players like Eric Stokes and Javon Bullard. If this game plays out on the expected script, Allen should have plenty of opportunities to clear this figure.
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
6-pt teaser: Denver Broncos -4.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs/Buccaneers -7.5 vs. New Orleans Saints (-115)
Two heavily favored teams who need to win to get into the playoffs; what could possibly go wrong with the most square bet in history?
The Broncos are a great teaser leg this week, as I imagine the Chiefs' defense will present some resistance early before Denver pulls away late to secure their wild-card bid. I'll be looking for any and every opportunity to fade the Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs, as this offense simply does not work with any other quarterback at the helm, but a 10.5-point spread is very large for a Broncos team that struggles to consistently score points for four quarters; 4.5 is much more reasonable.
This Saints-Buccaneers line is very tricky, as the Saints weirdly could return several key offensive players. Chris Olave is back practicing off of the concussion protocol, and both Alvin Kamara and Derek Carr have a chance to go on Sunday as well. If Olave and one other offensive cornerstone actually play, I expect this line to move toward the Saints. But will New Orleans really risk these players in a meaningless Week 18 game with an interim head coach at the helm? It feels very unlikely.
The Buccaneers should have no issues pouring points on the Saints' toothless defense, so even if the Saints are able to punch back with offensive reinforcements, the Buccaneers' victory should be large enough to cover 7.5.
SGP: Seattle Seahawks -6.5, Los Angeles Rams under 1.5 team total touchdowns, Zach Charbonnet 20+ receiving yards (+525)
What could have been a game for the division ends up meaningless for all but NFC playoff seeding, as the Rams will either be the third or fourth seed conditional on their performance in this game (and who, between the Falcons and Buccaneers, actually wins the NFC South). But Sean McVay has already told reporters he's resting quarterback Matthew Stafford for this game, and I wouldn't be surprised if key offensive players like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are also on pitch counts as this game progresses.
I love the idea of a Mike Macdonald defense against Jimmy Garoppolo, who is liable for some bad turnovers from poor pockets, which the Seahawks pass rush will certainly create. With Kenneth Walker III on injured reserve, we should expect a big pass-catching day from Charbonnet, who is splitting time with RB3 Kenny McIntosh as a ball-carrier but dominating him in total routes run.