NFL best bets for Week 15: Picks, props and more for the weekend

T.J. Hockenson OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)

Last week, San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle absolutely dominated the Bears with six catches on six targets for 151 yards. Just three weeks ago, Hockenson posted seven catches on eight targets for 114 yards against Chicago. Those combined efforts, along with strong games from Evan Engram and Zach Ertz, have the Bears now as the second-worst passing defense against tight ends, allowing 1.84 yards per route run.

All of the big tight end weeks against Chicago have come with safety Jaquan Brisker absent, and he's still out this week. His backup, Elijah Hicks (who was missing for both Hockenson's Week 12 and Kittle's Week 14 performances), returned to practice this week and might make a go of it. But we should still like Hockenson for his big-play potential in the Vikings' downfield, play-action-oriented passing approach. He can get to this number on just a few catches, though he's still likely to see heavy volume, given his recent success and the Bears' focus on eliminating Justin Jefferson (who had only two catches when they played in Week 12).

I will also be playing Hockenson on his longest reception over 6.5 yards to protect myself from an enormous Vikings blowout and low passing volume overall. I think both can get home.

Bryce Young OVER 14.5 rushing yards (-125)

While Young's success as a passer is all the rage recently, the Carolina Panthers QB has quietly been running the ball more willingly -- and successfully -- and has been over this number in each of his past four contests. Now he gets a Dallas Cowboys team giving up 24.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, second only to the Cincinnati Bengals for the worst number in football (and by 0.1 yards at that). By yards per rush surrendered (5.7), they're fourth worst.

Some of those numbers are inflated because of the quarterbacks the Cowboys have faced this season, a list that includes Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Jayden Daniels. But Drew Lock, Deshaun Watson, C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy all cleared this number against Dallas as well, and those are quarterbacks closer to the Young mold -- decently mobile, though not considered elite dual threats.

There's some concern that the Panthers won't need to drop back much against the Cowboys and their dreadful rush defense, but I do think Dallas is playing better against the run as of late. And the Panthers defense is so poor that it's unlikely this game becomes a blowout. (Imagine that! A Panthers blowout!) There should be enough opportunities for Young that he gets the two or three scampers he needs to clear this number.

Josh Allen OVER 34.5 rushing yards (-115)

Ask any Lions fan how they feel when a mobile quarterback comes to town and you'll see why we like the over here. Since Aaron Glenn became Detroit's defensive coordinator in 2022, the Lions have faced 11 quarterbacks with a pregame rushing line of at least 30 yards. Eight of those 11 have gone over, including Allen on Thanksgiving in 2022 when he rushed for 78 yards on a 43.5-yard prop.

This doesn't even factor how banged up the Lions are at linebacker. Alex Anzalone, Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Derrick Barnes are still on injured reserve. Detroit had to give serious linebacker reps to Ezekiel Turner, David Long Jr. and Kwon Alexander in Week 14. No offense, but those are not players who can catch Allen in space.

We should expect the Bills' handoff game to struggle against the Lions, as most teams bang their heads against that tough Detroit front with little success. And we should expect the Bills to trail in this game, given the juggernaut that is the Lions' offense and the issues the Rams exposed in the Bills' defense last week. Plenty of Allen dropbacks spell plenty of rush opportunities. I'll be playing alternate lines up to at least 50-plus here.

David Montgomery OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-130)

Longtime visitors to the column will recall how much I enjoy betting on receiving backs against the Bills. Surely, this week, that would be Jahmyr Gibbs, not Montgomery? Not so! While Gibbs certainly fits our typical paradigm of a pass-catching back (smaller, quicker), Montgomery has seen only nine fewer targets (35) than Gibbs (44). Montgomery gets 10.2 routes per game to Gibbs' 15.5 but is targeted on 26% of his routes to Gibbs' 22%.

Montgomery's total route volume is also tricking us, as it is artificially deflated by those preposterous blowouts the Lions played earlier in the year. Over the past six weeks, Montgomery has run an average of 12.2 routes per game, has had fewer than three targets only once and never had fewer than 20 receiving yards.

Now he gets a Bills pass defense allowing 1.50 yards per route run to running backs, the second highest in all of football. This should be a close game with tons of scoring, so we shouldn't expect the Lions to get to a run-heavy, burn-the-clock script. I expect another big receiving day for Montgomery.

Jordan Love UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (-120)

This is a big number for Love, who has not attempted more than 31.5 passes in any of his past four games. That includes big blowouts (such as the 38-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers a few weeks ago) and games on a trailing script (such as the loss to the Lions on "Thursday Night Football"). Why? Because the Green Bay Packers want to be a run, run, run, play-action shot team. With Love on the field (removing the Malik Willis games), the Packers have a run rate over expectation of plus-7.0%, fourth highest in football. That number is deflated by recent performances against the Lions and Miami Dolphins; in each of the previous four weeks, the Packers were at least plus-10% run rate over expectation.

Love can get over this number on a competitive game script in which he sees lots of possessions. But he's a deep-shot artist who doesn't accumulate tons of attempts, even when trailing, as he's liable to end drives with few pass attempts, either because he connected on deep throws (i.e., chunk gains) or failed to connect on deep throws (i.e., punts). Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks' run defense has been staunch over the past few weeks, but it has not been tested by as good of a running game as Green Bay's in a while.

Even if the Packers are trailing, I really like Geno Smith's ability to string together some long, clock-eating drives against a Packers defense that is dead last in success rate against opposing dropbacks. Given how heavily Green Bay relies on the running game and the expected low time of possession for the Packers, there are just too many game scripts that limit Love's total passing exposure.

Javonte Williams UNDER 49.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)

There's no straight rushing number for us to fade on Williams at the time of writing, so I'll take the rushing and receiving total and just assume the snap counts stay low enough that we get home.

Williams has taken fewer than 60% of the offensive snaps in each of the past six contests. In those six weeks, he is averaging only 11 touches per game and only 3.6 yards per touch. He has been remarkably less efficient as a ball carrier, averaging only 2.8 yards per rush, than both Jaleel McLaughlin (5.4 yards per rush) and Audric Estime (4.2), and while he has been the most productive receiver of the three backs, he is still averaging only 0.95 yards per route run.

Given Williams' struggles to generate chunk plays, he simply needs high volume to get over 50 combined rush and receiving yards -- and the Denver Broncos' backfield is too crowded to project him for solid volume. Because the Indianapolis Colts struggle so much with big outside receivers like Courtland Sutton, I'd wager the Broncos have a successful day throwing the football downfield and won't need their backs much in the passing game.

James Conner OVER 19.5 receiving yards (+100)

There has been a clear emphasis over the past month to get Conner more touches in the passing game. The past three games have been peak Conner receiving production, as the Arizona Cardinals have battled deficits and needed additional dropbacks. But even before that, Conner was previously replaced on passing downs by Emari Demercado, and that is no longer the case. From Week 7 on, Conner has 128 routes to Demercado's 36 (and Trey Benson's 28). His 12.5% target share is tied with Michael Wilson's for the third highest on the team.

Concern over a blowout might scare us off a running back receiving prop, but I think the New England Patriots will keep this close enough that the Cardinals stay on a neutral script. If they do, Conner should see the receiving volume requisite to clear this number, especially with his catch-and-run potential as a big body in space. As such, I prefer this number to a receptions total, given Conner's ability to get there on one big screen.

Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)