NFL betting: Under-the-radar props to bet in Week 15

We're betting to win.

And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

1. A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally by my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

2. A less-efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense) and alternate lines. Less attention means less-efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or another. Each week, I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

Results for this season are at the bottom of this story.

Defensive player props

Kyle Van Noy (BAL) over 0.5 sacks (+110)

This is all about Tommy DeVito, whom Van Noy is fortunate enough to face Sunday. Every time I look up DeVito's career sack rate, I have to double-check that what I'm seeing is real. It is, as the Giants' signal-caller has been sacked 15% of the time he drops back to pass, more than double the league-average rate. That's great news for Van Noy, who has a roughly average pass rush win rate for an edge rusher but has racked up eight sacks this season. No. 9 should be the easiest to come by, and my model prices this prop at -122.

Quinyon Mitchell (PHI) over 2.5 tackles + assists (-135)

Mitchell is recording a tackle on just 5% of defensive snaps, which is very low even for an outside corner. Mitchell is having a great season, but it's not like offenses are avoiding him, as his 14% target rate is not too far below the 16% average for an outside corner.

That means we shouldn't stray too far from the base rates for a player at his position. Players who played at least 80% of the defensive snaps in a game and aligned at outside corner at least 60% of the time this season have recorded at least three combined tackles 81% of the time. That doesn't quite cover the injury risk, but it shows how strong the base rates are working in our favor here. I project 3.6 tackles + assists for Mitchell.

See also:

• Byron Young (LAR) under 0.5 sacks (-175)

• L.J. Collier (ARI) under 0.5 sacks (-300)

• Devonte Wyatt (GB) under 0.5 sacks (-320)

• Josh Hines-Allen (JAX) under 0.5 sacks (-120)

• Christian Rozeboom (LAR) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-115)

• Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI) over 3.5 tackles + assists (-120)

• Geno Stone (CIN) under 5.5 tackles + assists (-120)

• Patrick Queen (PIT) under 8.5 tackles + assists (+105)

• Poona Ford (LAC) under 0.5 sacks (-280) (added 12/13)

• Tuli Tuipulotu (LAC) under 0.5 sacks (-150) (added 12/13)

• Calijah Kancey (TB) under 0.5 sacks (-175) (added 12/13)

• Dalvin Tomlinson (CLE) under 0.5 sacks (-340) (added 12/13)

• Kyzir White (ARI) over 7.5 tackles + assists (-110) (added 12/13)

• C.J. Gardner-Johnson (PHI) over 4.5 tackles + assists (+120) (added 12/13)

• Zach Sieler (MIA) under 0.5 sacks (-145) (added 12/13)

• Derek Barnett (HOU) over 0.5 sacks (+550) (added 12/13)

Alternate receiving yards

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) 70-plus receiving yards (+130)

Nothing quells passing ills quite like the Jaguars' defense. Jacksonville doesn't just rank last in EPA allowed per opponent dropback, it does so by a wide margin: The Jaguars sit at 0.22 EPA allowed per dropback, and no other team is worse than 0.16. As poorly as the Jets' season has gone, we can still see signs of Wilson's prowess as a receiver in the numbers. He has commanded a 26% target rate, 19th highest among wideouts with at least 200 routes run, and his 67.3 average receiving yards prop line is 11th highest.

Plus, he has an open score of 60, so even in this Aaron Rodgers-led offense in which he pretty clearly doesn't excel, Wilson is still generating separation. The cherry on top for Wilson's forecast: Davante Adams did not practice Thursday, which could be something to monitor on Friday's injury report. My number here is -146.

Ricky Pearsall (SF) 35-plus receiving yards (+250)

My alternate receiving yards model tends to like buying low on players whose current median prop line trails their season average. That's certainly the case here: Pearsall's receiving yards over/under sits at 14.5 for this game, while his season average has been 32.8. Another way to put it: We're getting +250 for Pearsall for barely surpassing his season-average prop line.

Of course, there's a good reason it has dropped. Pearsall's production has fallen off a cliff, with just 5 receiving yards in his past four games. He's still getting decent playing time though, and I could see the 49ers wanting to pass more in this game given their decimated running back group. It helps that Pearsall runs vertical routes at a slightly above-average clip, too. I make his fair price to hit 35+ receiving yards +181.

See also:

• Cooper Kupp (LAR) 90-plus receiving yards (+225)

• Allen Lazard (NYJ) 40-plus receiving yards (+225)

Anytime touchdowns

Puka Nacua (LAR) to score 1-plus touchdowns (+105) and 2-plus touchdowns (+650)

For anyone who has been following this column weekly, this bet's inclusion will be about the furthest thing from a surprise. The touchdown model has favored Nacua for weeks now, and that gives me some confidence in it given how well he has played recently (to be fair, the touchdown model has lost overall).

In case you haven't been watching recently, Nacua's numbers are ridiculous. He is being targeted on 39% of his routes, highest among all wide receivers with at least 150 routes run, and his 3.6 yards per route run ranks second.