As we enter Week 10 of the 2024 college football season, there are several intriguing matchups that should grab the attention of fans and bettors alike. This week's slate features a mix of conference rivalries and potential upset opportunities that could shake up the rankings and impact bowl game prospects.
One such game sees the USC Trojans traveling to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies. Both teams sport 4-4 records and are looking to secure bowl eligibility in their inaugural Big Ten seasons.
In the SEC, the 7-1 Texas A&M Aggies visit 4-3 South Carolina Gamecocks in what could be a defensive struggle, with A&M looking to maintain its perfect record in SEC conference play.
The ACC features the undefeated Miami Hurricanes hosting the Duke Blue Devils. Miami's high-octane offense will be tested against Duke's stingy defense in this David vs. Goliath matchup.
Rounding out our featured games, the Wisconsin Badgers are on the road to face the Iowa Hawkeyes in a classic Big Ten showdown in what is likely to be a closely contested affair, given the historical rivalry and both teams' styles of play.
As we dive into the matchups, we'll examine the key factors that could influence the outcomes and potentially uncover some value for those looking to place wagers. From quarterback performances to defensive strategies, there's plenty to consider as we approach another exciting weekend of college football action.
All lines current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET.
No. 10 Texas A&M -2.5 at South Carolina
The SEC Now crew predicts how Mike Elko will use Marcel Reed and Conner Weigman vs. South Carolina and says the Aggies have the makings of a championship-caliber team.
This game is likely to be decided in the trenches, with the stark contrast in sacks allowed between the two teams being a critical factor. Both teams boast elite pass-rush defenses, with Texas A&M ranking 21st in sacks and 30th in PFF pass rush grade, while South Carolina is third in sacks and second in pass rush grade. Both defensive lines excel at pressuring opposing quarterbacks. But the key difference lies in how each team's offensive line handles this pressure.
The disparity in sacks allowed is striking: South Carolina has conceded 32 (second-most in the nation), while Texas A&M has allowed just 11, with seven attributed to quarterback Conner Weigman. If Marcel Reed gets the start under center for the Aggies, his mobility could further mitigate pressure.
South Carolina's high number of sacks allowed has led to frequent offensive disruption, resulting in stalled drives (116th in third-down conversions), increased turnover risk (79th in giveaways) and difficulty establishing passing rhythm (116th in passing attempts per game). It adds up to a highly inefficient Gamecocks offense.
Texas A&M's superior pass protection could be the decisive element in this matchup. It should allow the Aggies to execute their offensive game plan more effectively while also putting additional pressure on South Carolina's offense to perform under duress. This advantage in the trenches significantly bolsters A&M's chances of covering the -2.5 spread on the road to remain undefeated in SEC conference play.
Texas A&M-South Carolina UNDER 44.5
As the No. 10 Aggies prepare to face the Gamecocks, SEC Now analysts Randall Cobb and Matt Stinchcomb expand on how South Carolina's defense could cause trouble for Texas A&M.
Expect this matchup to resemble a tug-of-war in thick mud, with both teams fighting for every yard while trying to gain ground. South Carolina's slumping offense is averaging just 5.1 yards per play (114th nationally), with the high sack rate and disruption along the line contributing to the low efficiency.
While the Gamecocks' rushing numbers appear decent (161 yards per game, 59th), it is a bit misleading. South Carolina has averaged less than 3.5 yards per carry in four of their games, dipping below 2.3 yards per rush in two of those contests. Things won't be any easier against a formidable Texas A&M run defense that ranks seventh in PFF grade and 14th in success rate.
The passing game has also been an issue for both teams, with the Aggies tossing only nine TD passes and the Gamecocks just eight. Texas A&M, however, relies heavily on its running game (62.85% rush play percentage, ninth nationally) and effective ball control (23rd in the nation in time of possession), an approach that, combined with solid pass protection, should minimize turnovers and negative plays.
South Carolina's sputtering offense will be hampered further against a Texas A&M defense primed to stifle any spark of momentum. This game should play out like a slow burn, keeping the scoreboard quiet and well below the 44.5-point total.
Wisconsin at Iowa OVER 40.5
Back in Week 1, I shouted to the rooftops to back an Iowa over. The Hawkeyes are now 7-1 to the over. Why has this not been on my card weekly? Big fail.
Iowa's offensive success is largely driven by running back Kaleb Johnson, the nation's second-leading rusher with 1,144 yards and 16 touchdowns (third most). Johnson has been a game-changer, scoring at least two rushing touchdowns in six games this season, notching three scores in two of those games. His elite 7.8 yards-per-carry average underscores his explosive potential.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin just gave up 173 yards on the ground in a home loss last Saturday to Penn State where the Nittany Lions averaged 4.9 yards per carry.
Johnson and Iowa present an even greater challenge. The Hawkeyes have developed a knack for explosive plays, adding an exciting dimension to their offense and creating the potential for quick scores that could impact the game's tempo and tilt the point total to a higher number.
And as that threat of the big play lingers, the potential for more opportunities in the rushing game arise. Running lanes may widen, allowing Johnson to find more space and potentially break off big plays of his own. This dynamic interplay between the ground game and big-play ability makes the Iowa offense particularly dangerous and unpredictable.
With contributions expected from all phases of the game, the potential for a high-scoring affair is significant. Taking the over in this matchup looks appealing.
Duke +21.5 at No. 5 Miami
The Hurricanes are a three-touchdown favorite facing the second-best takeaway defense and the 28th-graded pass rush in the country. Say less.
Duke's aggressive defense could force Heisman contender Cam Ward into uncomfortable situations, potentially leading to errant throws or fumbles. Miami's offense, while explosive, has had issues with turnovers in recent games.
During a three-game stretch (Virginia Tech, Cal, Louisville) when Miami won by one score or less, the Canes committed five total turnovers. If Duke can generate turnovers, it would provide its offense with shorter fields, potentially leading to easier scoring opportunities against Miami's defense, which ranks 40th in touchdowns allowed.
The matchup between Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy and Miami's defense presents a classic strength-versus-strength scenario. Miami's elite pass rush will test Duke's strong pass protection (3.6% sack rate, 28th-lowest in college football). But while Miami's pass rush is formidable, its secondary has been vulnerable, allowing 13 yards per pass to Cal and 342 yards and four touchdowns to Louisville.
Murphy's average time to throw is 2.20 seconds, the fastest in the nation this year, and his quick release could help neutralize Miami's rush and allow Duke to move the ball against the Hurricanes. Murphy has exceled on deep throws, with a 90.6 passing grade from PFF on shots beyond 20 yards (14th among qualifying quarterbacks), and his seven passing touchdowns on deep balls are tied for the fourth-most in the nation.
While backing Duke for the outright upset (+900) is risky, there are too many positives for the Blue Devils to be a three-touchdown underdog. This game has all the makings of a battle where big plays and turnovers could swing momentum -- and possibly the score -- in Duke's favor.
Miami has been flirting with disaster, and Duke is poised to capitalize on any slip-ups. With Murphy at the helm and a defense built to disrupt, don't be surprised if the Blue Devils make this matchup a competitive contest, potentially even ending in one of the biggest upsets of the season.
Week 10 best bet: Washington +2.5 vs. USC
Huskies quarterback Will Rogers has been exceptional at home, completing 74% of his passes and tossing 10 TD passes to only one interception. On the road, those numbers dip to a 70% completion rate with seven TD passes and four picks. Bolstered by the home crowd, Rogers should turn in another solid performance in Seattle.
USC is 0-3 on the road and has struggled to close out games against the likes of Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland. The Trojans' pass rush ranks 102nd in sacks and grades our as 81st overall by PFF. With little pressure, Washington's offensive line should provide Rogers with ample time to survey the field and find open receivers.
A notable concern from USC's Week 9 performance was the high number of offensive plays they allowed Rutgers: 47 pass attempts and 42 rush attempts. While USC won convincingly (42-20), allowing 89 total plays is worrisome against Washington's more potent offense. This vulnerability could be exploited by Rogers and the Huskies' offensive scheme, leading to a cover or outright win at home (+120).