November is almost here, and just as we all expected, the games with the greatest College Football Playoff implications on the first Saturday of November are Ohio State at Penn State ... and Pitt at SMU.
With the conference races ramping up, and thanks to the automatic playoff bids attached to them mattering more than ever, each week gives us even more to keep track of. November is going to be one hell of a ride, and every conference race is taking shape in a different way, with variations of both the "Standout favorite(s) with a dark horse or two" theme (Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, MWC, AAC, CUSA) and the "I have absolutely no idea" theme (SEC, MAC, Sun Belt).
Even without any major upsets, Week 9 produced some surprising shifts in terms of conference title odds. So let's walk through where everything stands heading into college football's best month.
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Group of 5
What the CFP rankings would (or should) look like
We're one week away from the first round of CFP rankings, but let's again take a stab at what the current hierarchy might look like.
A few years ago I learned that by combining poll averages (AP and coaches polls) with a computer average derived from both power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and strength of record), we can approximate the CFP committee's thinking pretty well. This almost BCS-style rating lines up with what the committee produces most of the time, enough so that when the committee does something different, it stands out.
Here's what this approach produces for this week, along with the changes that took place since last week.
BCS-style College Football Playoff rankings:
1. Oregon (8-0)
2. Georgia (6-1)
3. Penn State (7-0)
4. Ohio State (6-1)
5. Miami (8-0) -- up one spot
6. Texas (7-1) -- down one spot
7. Tennessee (6-1)
8. Notre Dame (7-1) -- up two spots
9. Clemson (6-1)
10. Texas A&M (7-1) -- up four spots
11. Iowa State (8-0)
12. Indiana (8-0)
13. BYU (8-0)
14. Alabama (6-2) -- up one spot
15. LSU (6-2) -- down seven spots
16. Kansas State (7-1)
17. Ole Miss (6-2)
18. Pittsburgh (7-0) -- up two spots
19. Boise State (6-1)
20. SMU (7-1) -- up one spot
21. Army (7-0) -- up two spots
22. Missouri (6-2) -- down four spots
23. Colorado (6-2) -- up seven spots
24. Washington State (7-1) -- up five spots
25. South Carolina (4-3)
Falling out of the top 25: Illinois (from 22nd to 28th), Navy (from 20th to 44th).
The major changes from last week's rankings: LSU and Texas A&M switched places (approximately) after the Aggies' comeback win in College Station, and thanks primarily to their jumps in the AP poll, both Colorado and Washington State took solid steps into the top 25 while Navy plummeted. I'm very curious how the committee judges the Cougs in particular: They're basically playing a Mountain West schedule this year but can't get an auto-bid thanks to the current two-team state of the Pac-12. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives them about a 10% chance of reaching the CFP, but I would be floored if the committee lifted them that high even if they won their last four games in dominant fashion.
October gave us a run of really big games, such as Georgia-Texas and Oregon-Ohio State, and based on these rankings we've got No. 3 vs. No. 4, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 4 vs. No. 12 and No. 6 vs. No. 10 to look forward to in November, in addition to a trio of potential top-10 vs. top-10 matchups over Championship Weekend.
SEC forecast
Favorites (title odds of 20% or higher, per SP+): Texas 26.6% (up 2.0% from last week), Texas A&M 24.7% (up 8.6%).
Texas didn't look amazing while beating Vanderbilt in Nashville, but the simple act of getting it done and moving to 3-1 in conference play improved the Longhorns' odds a hair. But the big jump came from Texas' reunited rival.
With A&M down 17-7 midway through the third quarter against LSU, head coach Mike Elko made a delightfully novel decision: If we can't throw -- starting quarterback Conner Weigman was a dreadful 6-for-18 passing with four sacks -- then let's just run the hell out of the ball instead. He replaced Weigman with the more mobile Marcel Reed, who had more touchdown runs (three) than passes (two, for 70 yards), and A&M finished the game on a 31-6 run and basically stole LSU's spot as co-favorite with Texas.
Fighting chance (title odds of 10-20%): Georgia 15.7% (down 1.1%), LSU 11.1% (down 10.2%), Alabama 10.8% (up 4.8%).
The best thing about a predictive rating like SP+ is that, as ESPN's Dean Oliver would say, the stats watch every game, even when our eyeballs can't. That's a good thing most of the time, but with Georgia and its propensity for spending as much time as possible in second gear against lesser competition, it backfires a bit. Despite their absolute brilliance in a 30-15 win over Texas in Week 8, the 6-1 Dawgs are currently sixth in SP+ because SP+ also watched their terribly mediocre performances against Kentucky and Mississippi State.
We've seen Georgia shift into gear enough to know that the Dawgs are probably better than sixth and that their SEC title odds should be higher than 15.7%. But if nothing else, this is a reminder of how little margin for error they left themselves with following Week 5's loss at Alabama. Slip up again, and a spot in Atlanta is highly unlikely.
Long shots (title odds of 1-10%): Tennessee 9.3% (down 0.2%), Ole Miss 1.3% (down 0.5%).
Tennessee has only one loss and is only one spot behind Texas in the BCS-esque rankings above. But the Vols still have to play at Georgia in a couple of weeks -- SP+ has their win probability at 35% for that one, and again, it's probably underrating the Dawgs -- and that's quite an impediment. And even if the Vols win that one, they also have to avoid an upset at Vanderbilt late in the season.
Biggest remaining games: Georgia at Ole Miss (Nov. 9), Alabama at LSU (Nov. 9), Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16), Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30).
This week's SEC schedule features no ranked-versus-ranked matchups and will only be noteworthy if it provides an upset in, say, Texas A&M at South Carolina or Ole Miss at Arkansas. But next week gives us two enormous headliners. And at the end of the month, the first Texas-Texas A&M game in 13 years might be the biggest one ever (or very close to it).
Big Ten forecast
Favorites: Oregon 44.6% (up 9.0%), Penn State 24.9% (down 1.2%), Ohio State 21.5% (down 4.8%).
The Big Ten remains pretty straightforward: Oregon is the favorite thanks to its head-to-head win over Ohio State, and the winner of Week 10's huge Ohio State-Penn State game becomes the co-favorite. Ohio State barely beat Nebraska in Week 9, thanks in part to a faltering offensive line, and because the Buckeyes' SP+ ratings fell in response, their Big Ten title odds did as well. But if they win in Happy Valley this coming week, all's well.
Fighting chance: none.
Long shots: Indiana 8.8% (down 1.8%).
Indiana remains a long shot despite the 8-0 start and despite ranking a healthy 13th in SP+. When your primary title rivals are all ranked eighth or better in SP+, you're still playing from behind. (It also didn't help that the Hoosiers' offensive ratings slipped slightly in their first game without injured QB Kurtis Rourke.) Still, if IU takes care of business against Michigan State and Michigan in the next two weeks, then beats Ohio State in Week 13, it's safe to say their odds will look pretty good.
Biggest remaining games: Ohio State at Penn State (Nov. 2), Indiana at Ohio State (Nov. 23).
Thanks to the Big Ten's massive expansion to 18 teams (plus a bit of poor fortune), an absolutely disastrous scenario remains on the table: According to SP+, there's still a 2.1% chance that Oregon, Penn State and Indiana all finish 9-0 in conference play. And without getting particularly creative, there's no way the conference will be able to fit three teams on the same field for the Big Ten championship game. The conference's tiebreaker rules say this three-way tie would be broken by looking at the conference win percentages of each team's conference opponents; based on current SP+ projections, Indiana would likely be left out in that scenario.
Granted, if, Indiana finishes 12-0 and misses the conference title game, the Hoosiers would be all but guaranteed to land the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff; there are worse consequences than that. But it would still be awfully awkward and annoying.
ACC forecast
Favorites: Miami 55.0% (up 8.6%).
Miami seems to have found its level. The Hurricanes overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 16.6 points per game during a 4-0 start and rose from 19th in the preseason to seventh because of it. But in their last four games, they've underachieved against projections by an average of 5.8 points per game -- the offense underachieved for the first time all season against Florida State -- to settle in at ninth in SP+ and 10th in FPI.
And yet, because they've taken care of business to such a large degree (and because their schedule in the home stretch is a cakewalk compared to Clemson's) they have the best odds of any power conference team of both winning their conference and reaching the CFP. Their four remaining conference opponents rank 43rd, 53rd, 61st and 75th in SP+. Even if they trip up along the way, their odds of reaching the ACC championship game would remain excellent.
Fighting chance: Clemson 19.6% (down 7.2%), SMU 15.3% (down 2.0%).
Clemson had a bad bye week. The Tigers didn't play, but their ACC title odds slipped by a good amount, both because Miami cleared another hurdle and because upcoming road opponents Virginia Tech and Pitt both saw their SP+ ratings rise -- Pitt to 23rd, Tech to 24th -- following strong Week 9 performances. I think SP+ is still underselling the Tigers a bit, but beating Louisville (22nd in SP+) and both the Hokies and Panthers in the next three weeks is going to be quite a chore. And with SMU a projected favorite in each of its last four games, any slip-up might cost Clemson terribly.
As with the Big Ten, we have a bit of a doomsday scenario brewing in the ACC: Miami, Clemson and SMU don't play each other, and all remain unbeaten in conference play; SP+ says there's a 3.0% chance that they all reach 8-0. Those aren't huge odds, thanks to Clemson's tough run (and SMU playing unbeaten Pitt this coming week), but it remains on the table. This tie would also be broken using opponents' combined conference win percentages, and current projections suggest that would result in SMU being left out.
Long shots: Pitt 6.1% (up 2.1%), Virginia Tech 3.0% (up 0.1%).
Pitt indeed jumped to 23rd in SP+ following a pummeling of Syracuse on Thursday. But the Panthers still have only a 4.0% chance of reaching 12-0 thanks to a tricky home stretch. They must play at SMU in Week 10 and Louisville in Week 13, and they host Clemson in between. They're projected underdogs in all three games, though that probably won't bother Pitt fans much: They're 3-0 as projected underdogs this season.
Biggest remaining games: Pitt at SMU (Nov. 2), Clemson at Virginia Tech (Nov. 9), Clemson at Pitt (Nov. 16).
The Pitt-SMU winner becomes the de facto No. 3 conference favorite, and if Pitt does the deed and remains unbeaten, the Panthers' odds of sneaking out an at-large playoff bid in the absence of a conference title rise a good amount too.
Big 12 forecast
Favorites: BYU 33.8% (up 5.6%), Kansas State 30.1% (up 3.4%), Iowa State 27.4% (down 2.7%).
The Big 12 comes through like no other conference when it comes to producing wild, down-to-the-wire action. The average spread in seven conference games last week was just 4.2 points, and the average scoring margin was just 6.4, with four games decided by five or fewer points.
And yet, despite all these close games, this trio of favorites refuses to give us the chaos we crave. BYU rode a hot early start to a surprisingly easy 37-24 win at UCF, while Kansas State survived quite a scare against rival Kansas, eventually winning 29-27 thanks to a late 51-yard field goal. These teams are a combined 13-1 in conference play, with the only loss coming within the group (BYU beat K-State). There are plenty of close games to come, but these three are making it difficult for anyone else to join the title race.
Fighting chance: none.
Long shots: Colorado 5.2% (up 0.2%), TCU 1.3 (down 0.5%).
TCU's come-from-ahead, then come-from-behind win over Texas Tech on Saturday kept the Horned Frogs at 3-2 in conference play; they technically still have a shot. But the major name here is Colorado. Deion Sanders' Buffaloes moved to 4-1 in Big 12 play with a late second-quarter surge and a 34-23 win over Cincinnati. Their 31-28 home loss to Kansas State in Week 7 is holding back their odds, as is the fact that, while they've charged from 79th to 37th in SP+, they're still quite a bit behind the three favorites in that regard. But their home stretch -- at Texas Tech, Utah, at Kansas, Oklahoma State -- is quite navigable if they continue to improve (and especially if Utah continues to bottom out). If they get to 8-1, things could get weird.
Biggest remaining games: Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30).
Among the five teams listed above, we have only one remaining head-to-head meeting. That's not optimal, but then again, this is the Big 12: We've got 33 remaining conference games, and 22 of them are projected within 7.5 points. Every game is big when you're a slight favorite at best.
Group of 5 forecast
With the Big 12 refusing to take the chaos bait (the odds of, say, a three-loss champion are getting smaller by the week), it appears the Group of 5 is all but guaranteed to end up with just one automatic bid. Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Boise State's playoff odds improved nicely, from 46.0% to 59.9%, following the Broncos' big win over UNLV on Friday night. But the Broncos still might have to beat the Rebels again in the MWC championship game, and other conferences -- particularly the AAC -- could still play a role in the playoff hunt. Let's walk through where all of the G5 races stand.
Conference favorites: Boise State 71.6% (MWC), Army 62.6% (AAC), Western Kentucky 40.8% (CUSA), Liberty 35.7% (CUSA), Louisiana 31.5% (Sun Belt), James Madison 24.4% (Sun Belt), Bowling Green 23.5% (MAC), Western Michigan 21.8% (MAC), Miami (Ohio) 21.5% (MAC).
Fighting chances: Toledo 18.3% (MAC), Navy 16.3% (AAC), Jacksonville State 16.0% (CUSA), UNLV 15.3% (MWC), Texas State 13.5% (Sun Belt), Tulane 12.6% (AAC).
Long shots (in this case, title odds of 5-10%): Memphis 8.6% (AAC), Georgia Southern 7.8% (Sun Belt), Ohio 7.7% (MAC), South Alabama 7.0% (Sun Belt), Sam Houston 6.8% (CUSA), Old Dominion 6.7% (Sun Belt), Fresno State 6.5% (MWC), Marshall 5.8% (Sun Belt).
Going by conference, here's how things shifted after Week 9:
AAC: With Navy losing so thoroughly to Notre Dame, the Midshipmen's SP+ ratings fell, as did their AAC title odds. Army (up 4.8%) and Tulane (up 3.2%) benefited the most.
Conference USA: This one flipped considerably following Liberty's shocking loss at winless Kennesaw State. The Flames' title odds slipped by 13.3%, while WKU (up 3.9%) and Jax State (up 8.1%) benefited. WKU is now a slight overall favorite.
MAC: This conference is as "up in the air" as one could possibly hope. Toledo was comfortably ahead of the pack but lost as a significant favorite to Bowling Green for the third time in six years. The Rockets' title odds plummeted by 17.3%, and Buffalo's fell by 10.4% following a blowout loss to Ohio. The Bulls are basically toast now. The primary beneficiaries: Western Michigan (up 12.2%), Bowling Green (up 12.1%) and Miami (Ohio) (up 8.9%). Those three and Toledo all have odds between 18% and 24%, though, so this race has about 28 more plot twists left in it.
Mountain West: Boise State's odds basically rose by the same amount (17.9%) as UNLV's odds fell (16.7%). I guess that makes sense. The Broncos are the most likely champion in the G5.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern's head-to-head win over James Madison gave the Eagles a solid edge in the Sun Belt East race, but they turned around and got smoked by Old Dominion. The Monarchs have overachieved by massive amounts against projections for two straight games, but while their title odds have predictably risen, JMU was the biggest beneficiary of ODU's big win. Their odds rose by 11.0%, and they're back up to the No. 2 favorite behind an increasingly impressive Louisiana.
Odds of finishing regular season with 0-1 losses: Army 52.3%, Boise State 49.9%, Memphis 27.6%, Louisiana 22.4%, Liberty 21.9%, Navy 6.4%.
Until Army loses, it's pretty easy to define the G5 race as a two-teamer. Boise State has lost only to the No. 1 team (Oregon), and by a narrow margin, and the Broncos are the most likely G5 team to win a conference title. But Army remains unbeaten, and the Black Knights have a shot at a marquee win of their own in Week 13 against Notre Dame. Pull an upset in that one -- and don't slip up, perhaps at North Texas in Week 11 -- and they might slide into the No. 1 spot in the G5.
Biggest remaining games: Louisiana at Texas State (Oct. 29), Jacksonville State at Liberty (Oct. 30), Georgia Southern at South Alabama (Nov. 2), WMU at BGSU (Nov. 12), Tulane at Navy (Nov. 16), South Alabama at Louisiana (Nov. 16), JMU at Old Dominion (Nov. 16), Ohio at Toledo (Nov. 20), WKU at Liberty (Nov. 23), Sam Houston at Jacksonville State (Nov. 23), Marshall at Old Dominion (Nov. 23), Memphis at Tulane (Nov. 28), Miami (Ohio) at BGSU (Nov. 29), Jacksonville State at WKU (Nov. 30), Liberty at Sam Houston (Nov. 30), Marshall at JMU (Nov. 30).
Both Louisiana-Texas State on Tuesday and Jax State-Liberty on Wednesday have major conference title implications, and Louisiana is a projected favorite of just 0.3 points, per SP+. We could have ourselves some dynamite midweek football in the coming days.