November is almost here, and just as we all expected, the games with the greatest College Football Playoff implications on the first Saturday of November are Ohio State at Penn State ... and Pitt at SMU.
With the conference races ramping up, and thanks to the automatic playoff bids attached to them mattering more than ever, each week gives us even more to keep track of. November is going to be one hell of a ride, and every conference race is taking shape in a different way, with variations of both the "Standout favorite(s) with a dark horse or two" theme (Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, MWC, AAC, CUSA) and the "I have absolutely no idea" theme (SEC, MAC, Sun Belt).
Even without any major upsets, Week 9 produced some surprising shifts in terms of conference title odds. So let's walk through where everything stands heading into college football's best month.
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CFP picture
SEC | Big Ten
ACC | Big 12
Group of 5
What the CFP rankings would (or should) look like
We're one week away from the first round of CFP rankings, but let's again take a stab at what the current hierarchy might look like.
A few years ago I learned that by combining poll averages (AP and coaches polls) with a computer average derived from both power ratings (SP+ and FPI) and résumé ratings (Résumé SP+ and strength of record), we can approximate the CFP committee's thinking pretty well. This almost BCS-style rating lines up with what the committee produces most of the time, enough so that when the committee does something different, it stands out.
Here's what this approach produces for this week, along with the changes that took place since last week.