No. 3 Auburn | No. 5 Alabama | Top 25
No. 4: Baylor
Last Season: 11-2 (8-1 Big 12)
A season to forget
For all the success -- a second straight Big 12 title, the nation's top scoring attack (48.2 PPG), the first Cotton Bowl berth since '80 -- Baylor isn't exactly nostalgic about last season: the meltdown in Morgantown; coach Art Briles glaring at Big 12 commish Bob Bowlsby as he named the Bears co-champs with TCU, a team they'd beaten; losing 42-41 to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl.
"We have pretty long memories," growls 6-foot-9, 280-pound DE Shawn Oakman. "We're reminded all the time that we were this close." One of 18 starters back, the senior, who led the D with 11 sacks, won't need to motivate much. And with junior Seth Russell (eight TDs, 1 INT in 2014) stepping in for Bryce Petty, Briles should produce a sixth straight 3,500-yard QB. But if BU hopes to pull off the first Big 12 three-peat since Oklahoma (2006-08) and erase bad memories, it must improve against the pass (No. 107) in a pass-happy league. -- Ryan McGee
I expect a breakout year from Russell, who is surrounded by my No. 2 set of WRs in the nation, including junior Corey Coleman and sophomore KD Cannon (2,149 yards, 19 TDs combined in '14). BU also boasts my No. 1 O-line and No. 1 D-line in the Big 12. I expect the Bears to run roughshod over their first seven foes, but they will face much tougher opponents down the stretch: at K-State, OU, at OK State (a toss-up in my book), at TCU (+7 on a short week) and Texas. Still, with the most starters back in the Big 12, they will be neck and neck with TCU to get in the playoff.
IN IF...
The D can make a stop. The Bears allowed more than 40 points four times in '14, which makes it tough to win the Big 12 -- and impress the committee. With the league's easiest slate, according to FPI, Baylor must dominate.
OUT IF...
The Bears don't go 12-0. Now, their season doesn't necessarily hinge on TCU alone, especially hosting revenge-minded OU and with a trip to Oklahoma State. But the nonconference schedule is so weak, it feels like "win 'em all" has to be the mantra.
Baylor's chances to win each game
09.04 @ SMU: 96.6%
09.12 vs. Lamar: 99.9%
09.26 Rice: 98.3%
10.03 vs. Texas Tech (Arlington): 84.8%
10.10 @ Kansas: 97.7%
10.17 West Virginia: 82.4%
10.24 vs. Iowa State: 97.2%
11.05 @ Kansas State: 75.5%
11.14 vs. Oklahoma: 68.5%
11.21 @ Oklahoma State: 71.7%
11.27 @ TCU: 42.7%*
12.05 vs. Texas: 83.0%
*BROCK HUARD, ESPN analyst: Three of the past four have been decided by three or fewer, but November will test the legs of BU's "basketball on grass" group. TCU should be a bigger favorite at home.
SHARON KATZ, ESPN Stats & Info: FPI ranks BU's offense No. 1 and says this would be a toss-up on a neutral field.
The Bears' devastating defensive line, led by monster DE Shawn Oakman, should supplement an explosive offense, but perfection will, again, escape the Bears in an 11-1 regular season. -- Brandon Chatmon
Despite a last-second road loss during their treacherous November schedule, the faster-than-ever Bears manage to go 11-1 for a third consecutive year. -- Max Olson
With star power at the skill positions and in the trenches, Baylor is loaded for, well, bear; but a soft nonconference schedule and a brutal final month will keep an 11-1 Baylor team from slipping into the playoff again. -- Jake Trotter
No. 3 Auburn | No. 5 Alabama | Top 25
