No. 4 Baylor | No. 6 Oregon | Top 25
No. 5: Alabama
Last Season: 12-2 (7-1 SEC West)
Can the Tide get back on a roll?
The Tide lost a 1,000-yard rusher (T.J. Yeldon), a 1,700-yard receiver (Amari Cooper), the SEC's most efficient passer (Blake Sims), and the backbone of their secondary (Landon Collins). So, exactly how is it that a team needing to replace all of that could possible find itself ranked in the top five? Because it's Alabama, that's how. No matter who ends up behind center, Jake Coker, who was supposed to take over last season but was beaten out by Sims, or junior Alec Morris, they will go to work sandwiched between a stout offensive line and tailback Derrick Henry, who went for 990 yards last fall. "No, we don't have an experienced player at that position," admits Nick Saban, entering his ninth year in Tuscaloosa. "We did not have one last year, either and [Sims] did a terrific job. We need someone to take the bull by the horns for us this year." Or at least the Badger by the tail. Bama opens with Wisconsin at the Jerry Dome on September 5. -- Ryan McGee
No returning starter at QB, no problem. Nick Saban can win, and win big, with a newbie under center (see: two national titles with first-year starters, No. 1 playoff seed with Blake Sims last year). Uncertainty at QB is no reason to count the current Tide out, especially with a Mack truck like RB Derrick Henry and a potentially dominant front seven (No. 1 DL and No. 3 LB units). Alabama hasn't been an underdog in 68 straight games, and although that streak could end when it travels to Athens in Week 5, I still pick the Tide as a toss-up at Georgia and a 1½-point favorite at Auburn.
IN IF...
The Tide go at least 4-1 in games not in Tuscaloosa (vs. Wisconsin in Arlington, Texas, and at Georgia, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn). With the country's toughest schedule, according to FPI, Bama is one of just a handful of teams that could reach the playoff without a conference title.
OUT IF...
The slew of new offensive faces can't find the end zone. Gone are the days of Saban defenses holding opponents to 10 points a game (especially with a troubled secondary: 43 pass plays of 20-plus yards allowed in 2014, No. 82 in the FBS), so Lane Kiffin's group must produce.
Alabama's chances to win each game
09.05 Wisconsin (Arlington): 82.5%
09.12 vs. Middle Tennessee: 95.7%
09.19 vs. Ole Miss: 64.0%
09.26 vs. Louisiana-Monroe: 98.9%
10.03 @ Georgia: 46.6%*
10.10 vs. Arkansas: 65.0%
10.17 @ Texas A&M: 48.3%
10.24 vs. Tennessee: 68.1%
11.07 vs. LSU: 59.3%
11.14 @ Mississippi State: 72.3%
11.21 vs. Charleston Southern: 99.9%
11.28 @ Auburn: 58.2%
*BROCK HUARD, ESPN analyst: Bama's front stuffs downhill O's (hello, Nick Chubb), but special teams and especially coaching will be the different. Advantage Tide, who should be 60-percent-plus favorites.
SHARON KATZ, ESPN Stats & Info: The real difference? UGA returns seven offensive starters, Bama four. That turnover drops the Tide's O out of FPI's top 15; UGA's ranks No. 5.
With a new-look offense, continuing questions in the secondary, the Crimson Tide will just miss out on a second straight SEC title, finishing 10-2. -- Edward Aschoff
We'll see who wins the quarterback job, and Lane Kiffin must replace nearly every receiver of note, yet this is still the most talented roster in the SEC -- one that will once again win the SEC West at 11-1. -- David Ching
They'll still be one of the nation's best, but replacing the production of Amari Cooper is tough -- while also needing to answer questions at QB -- and two tough road trips to Georgia and Auburn could trip up the Crimson Tide en route to a 10-2 record. -- Sam Khan Jr.
It might not be the "collapse" that some are predicting, but 10-2 and a loss in the Iron Bowl is still not up to standard at Alabama. -- Greg Ostendorf
Four straight No. 1 recruiting classes won't be enough to replace three-quarters of the secondary, three-fifths of the offensive line, a Heisman Trophy finalist at receiver and a record-setting passer at QB, leading to a rebuilding season in which Alabama goes 9-3. -- Alex Scarborough
No. 4 Baylor | No. 6 Oregon | Top 25
