No. 5 Alabama | No. 7 USC | Top 25
No. 6: Oregon
Last Season: 13-2 (8-1 Pac-12)
The last time the Ducks didn't earn double-digit wins was eight years ago. This season will begin the same question that was first asked of coach Mark Helfrich just moments after losing to Ohio State in the inaugural College Football Playoff championship: How in the world are you going to replace Marcus Mariota? The answer won't just be revealed in the season opener Sept. 5, the answer might well have been provided by that day's opponent. Vernon Adams has transferred to Eugene from Eastern Washington, the FCS program that he famously led to an upset over 25th-ranked Oregon State in 2013 and finished the past two seasons as runner-up for the Walter Payton Awards, the FCS version of the Heisman Trophy. Few expect him to wait very long before leading the Ducks. -- Ryan McGee
Oregon has chugged along just fine in the post-Chip Kelly era, with Mark Helfrich blazing to 24-4 in two seasons in Eugene. Though 2015 will be his first year without Marcus Mariota, the Ducks are loaded at the skill spots: Senior Byron Marshall (1,003 receiving yards in '14) leads my top-ranked WR unit, Royce Freeman (12 games with 75-plus rush yards last year) heads the No. 4 group of running backs, and Eastern Washington transfer QB Vernon Adams was brilliant at the FCS level (10,438 pass yards in three years). They'll need every ounce of that talent and speed in '15. While Oregon enjoys five Pac-12 games at home, it travels to revenge-minded Michigan State as well as Arizona State and Stanford, where I tag them as underdogs by 4, 3 and 7 points, respectively-a rarity for the Ducks, who have been favored in every game since 2011.
IN IF...
Adams carries Mariota's QBR legacy into '15. The Heisman winner's 90.9 QBR was the fourth-best mark in the past 10 years, and though Adams boasts just two career starts vs. Pac-12 teams (Oregon State in '13, UW in '14), he lit them up: a 97.2 QBR.
OUT IF...
The Ducks sink against Michigan State. Lose and they'd likely need to run the Pac-12 table, about a 5 percent proposition, according to FPI.
Oregon's chances to win each game
09.03 vs. Eastern Washington: 99.9%
09.12 @ Michigan State: 48.7%*
09.19 vs. Georgia State: 99.2%
09.26 vs. Utah: 82.4%
10.03 @ Colorado: 87.2%
10.10 vs. Washington State: 92%
10.17 @ Washington: 82.1%
10.29 @ Arizona State: 58.7%
11.07 vs. Cal: 82%
11.14 @ Stanford: 52.6%
11.21 vs. USC: 61.3%
11.27 vs. Oregon State: 95.6%
*BROCK HUARD, ESPN analyst: UO loses beef on both lines -- bad news against Sparty, which suffocates QBs (42 sacks in '14) and keeps its own clean (11 sacks allowed. This tilt is closer to 75 percent for MSU.
SHARON KATZ, ESPN Stats & Info: FPI can't ignore the Ducks' track record on O (No. 2 in the FBS since '11), so even in East Lansing and without Mariota, this one is close.
While the Ducks are still probably the class of the Pac-12 North, it's hard to imagine any team in the conference going undefeated. Having to go to Michigan State in Week 2 doesn't help when breaking in a new quarterback and back-to-back games against Stanford and USC in November will be a challenge. A 10-2 record is possible, if not a little optimistic. -- Kevin Gemmell
With questions at QB expect the Ducks to struggle on the road throughout the season, but with as many weapons as they have, they'll still finish 10-2 before going on to win the Pac-12 title. -- Chantel Jennings
The obvious question mark here comes at the quarterback position, but the Ducks' offense has earned the benefit of the doubt: They have the weapons to remain lethal. If the transition does cause some growing pains, they'll likely be evident in the Week 2 showdown at Michigan State, but Oregon looks capable of a 10-2 season. -- David Lombardi
Oregon is replacing the greatest player in school history but it is loaded at the skill positions, so whoever wins the QB job will need be only a careful distributor to look good. A big nonconference win at Michigan State in Week 2 would establish the Ducks as CFP contenders again. A 10-2 mark sounds doable. -- Ted Miller
No. 5 Alabama | No. 7 USC | Top 25
