No. 2 TCU | No. 4 Baylor | Top 25
No. 3: Auburn
Last Season: 8-5 (4-4 SEC West)
Hello, my name is ...
World, meet Jeremy Johnson. He's already making Auburn fans forget all about Nick Marshall. (What Prayer at Jordan-Hare?) Yes, the newest Tiger under center saw limited action in two years of backup duty, but he dazzled: 858 yards, nine touchdowns, 73.1 completion percentage. Auburn's offensive wizards are planning accordingly.
"We want to call eight plays vertically 25 to 30 yards down the field," O-coordinator Rhett Lashlee says. "If we hit half of them, that's four touchdowns or big, explosive plays. What you don't hit will have backed them up. Make them defend the whole field."
But WR Sammie Coates is gone, you say? Johnson still has toys aplenty in his chest to catch those 30-yard verticals, most notably D'haquille Williams, perhaps the country's top WR prospect for the 2016 draft (four 100-yard games last season). Yeah, you'll want to remember his name too. -- Ryan McGee
Offensive guru Gus Malzahn's sophomore slump saw his squad drop four of its last five tilts, including a back-and-forth OT Outback Bowl against Wisconsin. And while Malzahn loses 33 lettermen in 2015 (No. 115 in my experience rankings), life should be just fine on the Plains. Despite Johnson's limited experience (78 career pass attempts), Auburn still benefits from my third-highest QB unit in the SEC -- and No. 18 overall -- and an O-line stocked with NFL prospects (Alex Kozan, Avery Young). Even in the brutal SEC West, I peg the Tigers as underdogs in just three games: at LSU (+7), at Arkansas (+3) and at home to Alabama (+1½).
IN IF...
New D-coordinator Will Muschamp tightens a unit that ranked in the SEC's bottom five in points and rush and pass yards allowed per game. Even Coach Boom can't create world-beaters overnight, so hopes hinge on Johnson's becoming the megawatt QB pundits expect. The Tigers take on LSU, FPI's No. 5 D, in Week 3. No training wheels here.
OUT IF...
The offense's plethora of new faces don't learn to course-correct by pulling out the close games last year's group did not at the end of the season (two three-point losses in the final five). And with FPI's sixth-toughest schedule in '15, more close tilts are to be expected.
Auburn's chances to win each game
09.05 vs. Louisville (Atlanta): 73.3%
09.12 vs. Jacksonville State: 99.8%
09.19 @ LSU: 29.1%*
09.26 vs. Mississippi State: 71.8%
10.03 vs. San Jose State: 94.1%
10.15 @ Kentucky: 69.8%
10.24 @ Arkansas: 34.3%
10.31 vs. Ole Miss: 48.3%
11.07 @ Texas A&M: 32.8%
11.14 vs. Georgia: 46.1%
11.21 vs. Idaho: 99.1%
11.27 vs. Alabama: 41.8%
*BROCK HUARD: AU gave LSU the worst loss of the Les Miles era in '14 (41-7). Now LSU's crop of so-so QBs faces blitz-happy Muschamp. A toss-up at best.
SHARON KATZ: Don't let the Muschamp hype overshadow LSU's consistently elite defense: 4.6 ypp, No. 4 in the FBS since '11.
By coupling what should be one of the nation's most potent and balanced offenses with one of the sport's top defensive minds, the Tigers will claw their way to an 11-1 regular-season record and a spot in the SEC title game. -- Edward Aschoff
The defense should improve and quarterback Jeremy Johnson will be a star, but while the Tigers draw two of their toughest opponents (Alabama and Georgia) at home, there are enough tough road games (Louisville in Atlanta, LSU, Arkansas) that 9-3 is a distinct possibility. -- David Ching
With a revamped defense under Will Muschamp and a breakout season by quarterback Jeremy Johnson, the Tigers run the table and go 12-0 in the regular season. -- Sam Khan Jr.
The winner of the Iron Bowl takes the SEC yet again. The question then becomes: Can an 11-2 SEC champ make the College Football Playoff? -- Greg Ostendorf
Thanks to continuity on offense, the return of stud pass-rusher Carl Lawson and the hiring of one of the best defensive coordinators in the country, Auburn is the safest bet in the SEC to win the conference, finishing the regular season at 11-1. -- Alex Scarborough
No. 2 TCU | No. 4 Baylor | Top 25
