No. 1 Ohio State | No. 3 Auburn | Top 25
No. 2: TCU
Last Season: 12-1 (8-1 Big 12)
Out to make their points
Trevone Boykin recalls the exact moment TCU's spread clicked. It was the QB's second scrimmage last August, entering coach Gary Patterson's 14th season, an era defined by defense -- only Alabama and Ohio State have allowed fewer points per game the past decade. But Patterson knew that his offense had to make a leap, so he'd hired a pair of coordinators to get his QB-turned-WR-turned-QB up to speed. "Our defense is used to running things," Boykin says. "But we started scoring on one-play drives. They looked at me like, 'OK, this might work.'" Did. It. Ever. TCU's scoring soared from 25.1 PPG to 46.5, No. 2 in the FBS behind Baylor, the Frogs' lone defeat. Now the senior who'd once been demoted to WR is a Heisman front-runner. "Maybe," he says, "but it's more important that we get rid of that '1' in the loss column." -- Ryan McGee
Last preseason the Horned Frogs were my most improved team -- and they delivered, going from 4-8 to 12-1, including a 42-3 win over Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl. With 10 offensive starters back, TCU figures to score at an even higher clip, and despite inexperience in the back seven (three underclassmen could start), the D should be in good hands with Patterson. The Frogs throttled Big 12 foes in '14 (23 ppg margin), and I don't have them as 'dogs in any game. But they face tough tests at K-State and Oklahoma State, and OU is a toss-up. I have them as a TD favorite over Baylor.
IN IF...
Boykin improves on his breakout season and a D with just five starters back finds its footing. TCU must also win the Big 12 -- head-to-head tiebreaker included -- and dominate lesser foes (no more four-point wins over KU) to avoid being denied again.
OUT IF...
They don't eliminate doubt. Without a conference title game, a late fail at OU or vs. Baylor could be disastrous. The Frogs will have to make their closing statement against the Bears the day after Thanksgiving because they don't play on the regular season's final weekend. And off the radar is not a good place to be.st.
TCU's chances to win each game
09.03 @ Minnesota: 85.1%
09.12 vs. Stephen F. Austin: 99.9%
09.19 vs. SMU: 98.8%
09.26 @ Texas Tech: 79.6%
10.03 vs. Texas: 82.7%
10.10 @ Kansas State: 75.2%
10.17 @ Iowa State: 93.6%
10.29 vs. West Virginia: 82.2%
11.07 @ Oklahoma State: 71.4%
11.14 vs. Kansas: 99.1%
11.21 @ Oklahoma: 53.5%*
11.27 @ Baylor: 57.3%
*BROCK HUARD: A 4-8 TCU lost by a FH here in '13; these Frogs (88 plays of 20-plus yards in '14) should blow OU out.
SHARON KATZ: The next week vs. Baylor will be hyped, but FPI calls this a trap. While BU (No. 3) outranks OU (No. 15) in FPI, playing OU on the road is about a six-point swing for the Frogs.
Star QB Trevone Boykin should be one of the nation's top playmakers, but five conference road games prove to be too much, resulting in a 11-1 regular season for the second straight year. -- Brandon Chatmon
Inexperience on defense shows at times, but fortunately Trevone Boykin and TCU's senior-loaded offense can outscore anybody on their way to an 11-1 mark. -- Max Olson
With 10 offensive starters back, including Heisman hopeful QB Trevone Boykin, count on TCU reprising last year's 11-1 record, only this time, with an appearance in the playoff to boot. -- Jake Trotter
No. 1 Ohio State | No. 3 Auburn | Top 25
