The 2024 season brought plenty of surprises, as unexpected teams and players populated the races for conference titles, national awards and the first 12-team College Football Playoff field. But the biggest stunner in the sport was the Indiana Hoosiers.
The program with the most losses in FBS history reached 10 wins for the first time -- after a 10-0 start, no less -- and made the CFP before programs like USC, Nebraska, Florida and Miami did. When the CFP kicked off on a cold night at Notre Dame Stadium, the Hoosiers were there, taking the field.
The CFP included other newcomers like Arizona State and SMU, but none carried the same shock value as Indiana.
As we set out to find the next potential Indiana for the 2025 season, it's important to emphasize that an exact replica is unlikely. What coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers accomplished this past fall is extremely difficult, even in the transfer portal era.
But there are certain teams that would generate a similar reaction if they made the CFP, given their recent history. To find them, it was important to set some criteria:
No CFP appearances
No conference titles in the past 10 years
Winning percentage below .550 during the four-team CFP era (2014-2023)
Here's a look at seven teams that meet the criteria and could rise all the way into CFP contention this fall.
Illinois Fighting Illini
2024 record: 10-3
Record during four-team CFP era: 46-73 (.387)
Last conference title: 2001
Case to be next Indiana: The leap Illinois must take to CFP contention is nowhere near as steep as Indiana's was in 2024. The Illini are coming off of their first 10-win season since 2001 and their first AP top-20 finish since 2007, when they made a surprise run to the Rose Bowl before slipping back into obscurity. They did a great job retaining top players on both sides of the ball, including quarterback Luke Altmyer, outside linebacker Gabe Jacas, offensive tackle J.C. Davis and safeties Xavier Scott and Miles Scott. Illinois also made some key transfer additions to address areas of need such as wide receiver. The roster is in place to become a CFP contender.
"The best thing for us is our best players are back," coach Bret Bielema told ESPN. "We probably had six or seven guys that were [NFL] combine-worthy that came back. That's the part that doesn't show up on any recruiting services or any portal evaluations. If they never leave, they never get counted."
Bielema said Illinois' retention resembles what he had at Wisconsin in 2011, when the Badgers went to the Rose Bowl. The big difference was adding Russell Wilson at quarterback, but Illinois brings back a signal-caller in Altmyer who will be one of the nation's most experienced QBs.
"He had a pretty good NFL draft grade ... but I don't think it was where he wanted to go, so that's what drove the decision to come back," Bielema said. "Then, obviously, we had to do a lot around him."
Altmyer's decision stemmed in part from Illinois retaining offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr., who received some head coaching interest after this past season. Illinois also brought back defensive coordinator Aaron Henry, whose group improved from 93rd nationally in points allowed in 2023 to 31st this past year.
The Illini added three defensive line transfers from Wisconsin -- James Thompson Jr., Leon Lowery Jr. and Curt Neal -- who can complement Jacas, Matthew Bailey, Dylan Rosiek and other returnees.
The closer parallel between Illinois and Indiana comes from a historical perspective. Illinois has gone 23 consecutive seasons without a Big Ten title and has never made the league title game. The Illini have only three Big Ten titles since 1963, when Dick Butkus was team MVP. Illinois just isn't a team many would associate with the CFP, but that could change this season.
"To go somewhere you've never been, you got to do things you've never done," Bielema said.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
2024 record: 8-5
Record during four-team CFP era: 57-66 (.463)
Last conference title: 1994 (Southwest Conference)
Case to be next Indiana: A big part of Indiana's rise to the CFP was an increased commitment to program resources, which helped bring Cignetti to Bloomington and grew further once he stepped foot on campus. After previous coach Tom Allen noted Indiana's lagging NIL efforts in the final days of his tenure, the school and its brass stepped up their efforts for Cignetti. Texas Tech has been making moves the past few years, flexing its financial clout to get coach Joey McGuire's program in position for a significant breakthrough. While Texas Tech might not be Texas A&M when it comes to the roster of deep-pocketed boosters, it has notable ones such as billionaire oilman Cody Campbell, who has helped the program establish a powerful NIL arm.
"Cody really challenged us, like, 'Look, at the end of the season, the portal opens up and there's an opportunity,'" McGuire told ESPN. "We identified some things that we really needed, roster-wise."
This winter, Texas Tech pulled in ESPN's No. 2 transfer class, which featured UCF's Lee Hunter and other talented linemen on both sides of the ball. Texas Tech brought in 17 new players, more than McGuire and general manager James Blanchard thought it needed, but "we had so many 'yesses,'" McGuire said.
The team focused its efforts on the lines, especially the offensive front, adding transfers Hunter Zambrano (Illinois State), Howard Sampson (North Carolina) and Will Jados (Miami of Ohio) to supplement a group that regained Davion Carter for another year. Texas Tech finished 61st nationally in rushing this past season, despite having star running back Tahj Brooks, and 64th in sacks allowed.
"You look at the guys that are winning the conferences, you look at the guys that are playing in the playoffs, they're doing it because they're really good up front," McGuire said. "It's hard to be young in the offense and defensive line and think you're going to be successful. So we were able to get older in both of those areas."
After the impressive transfer haul, Texas Tech was able to retain Blanchard as GM despite a push from national runner-up Notre Dame. The Red Raiders are positioned for a big 2025 season after going 23-16 in McGuire's first three seasons in Lubbock. A CFP berth would represent vastly new territory for the Red Raiders, who haven't finished a season ranked since 2009. Even the 2008 team, which rose as high as No. 2 nationally, still finished outside the top 10.
Texas Tech has never had an AP top-10 finish and has only one 10-win season since 1976. But the team returns All-Big 12 linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, veteran quarterback Behren Morton, accomplished receivers Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin, and other key contributors. Texas Tech plays in a Big 12 filled with parity and possibility, and has a schedule lacking any non-league games against the Power 4.
"We have a very good culture, we have a very good locker room, and we have a bunch of guys that want to win, and not just win and go to bowl games, but we want to be at that conference championship, and we want to be in the playoffs," McGuire said. "We're right there, and we need to take advantage of this time."
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2024 record: 7-6
Record during four-team CFP era: 56-66 (.459)
Last conference title: 2009
Case to be next Indiana: Brent Key is 18-16 as Georgia Tech's coach, a record that, on the surface, doesn't jump out as remarkable or suggesting a historic jump is on the horizon. But Key is 6-1 against ranked ACC opponents. If Georgia Tech had held on to beat in-state rival Georgia in late November, it would have completed an 8-4 regular season that included three wins against AP top-10 foes.
Key and the Yellow Jackets have proven they can win big games, usually a requirement for programs like Georgia Tech to get all the way to the CFP.
"I don't think anything makes it easy, but I'd rather be on this side of it than the other side, because we've shown what our ceiling is," Key told ESPN. "We've shown the ability to play to our ceiling. We've got to eliminate the basement."
Key didn't think Georgia Tech handled success as well as it needed to in 2024. The team opened with a huge win over Florida State in Ireland, only to lose at Syracuse two weeks later. The Georgia game brought more credit than blame for Yellow Jackets players and has had a unique lasting effect.
"These kids are walking around town, walking on campus, getting some sunshine blown up their ass for the way they played in a loss," Key said. "Like, c'mon now guys, let's be real here. We lost a f---ing game we should have won. So you have to work their ass hard, and really drill it all back down."
Georgia Tech players began wearing UATW bracelets this past season -- Us Against The World -- and have continued to do so during winter conditioning. Key is focused on building and sustaining confidence, which he admits is odd after several big wins, but necessary for a group that wants to redefine what seasons mean at Georgia Tech.
The Yellow Jackets will be tested right away this fall, opening the 2025 season at Colorado, before hosting Clemson two weeks later.
Georgia Tech could have its best offense under Key, as quarterback Haynes King returns for his third season as Georgia Tech's starter after by far his most efficient performance. King completed nearly 73% of his passes with only two interceptions in 269 pass attempts and has 21 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons.
He'll once again share the offensive backfield with running back Jamal Haynes, and throw to Malik Rutherford and several incoming transfer wideouts. The offensive line, Georgia Tech's signature position group under Key, loses several key players but should be very strong at guard with Keylan Rutledge and Joe Fusile back. Offensive tackle Josh Petty, ESPN's No. 24 overall recruit in 2025, headlined a class also featuring ESPN 300 guard Peyton Joseph.
"It's the most talented group of green guys that haven't played, as I've had in a long, long time," Key said. "They're super talented. There's only so many sunrises, sunsets between now and the first game ... But damn, I think we've got a chance."
To make a CFP push, Georgia Tech must get more from a defense that surrendered 24 passing touchdowns and generated only five interceptions. Key hired Blake Gideon as defensive coordinator in the hopes of cutting down on explosive plays allowed. Gideon is a former safety at Texas and in the NFL. He has coached defensive backs throughout his career.
"This is the ground level," Key said. "Now, everything from here is measured up against that. Once you raise your standard and you show the ability to play to that and compete to that and prepare to that standard, that's not the ceiling, that's the basement now."
South Carolina Gamecocks
2024 record: 9-4
Record during four-team CFP era: 58-66 (.468)
Last conference title: 1969 (ACC)
Case to be next Indiana: Like the Illinois team it faced in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, South Carolina isn't far away from the CFP mix. Some thought the Gamecocks should have gained more at-large consideration after beating Clemson in their regular season finale and losing only to Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU. Coach Shane Beamer has elevated the team's personnel efforts. South Carolina returns one of the nation's top young quarterbacks in LaNorris Sellers, as well as wide receivers Nyck Harbor and Mazeo Bennett Jr., and defensive standouts such as sophomore end Dylan Stewart. The team added some key transfers this winter, especially for a largely new-look defensive front seven.
The Gamecocks won't sneak up on anyone in the SEC this fall, but they've clearly closed the talent gap with several of the league's annual contenders. South Carolina will need Sellers to stay healthy. His absence in the second half against LSU stung, and he missed a game before returning and struggling in the Ole Miss loss. The Gamecocks will also need the defense to remain on a strong trajectory despite losing Kyle Kennard and several other standouts to the NFL.
From a historical viewpoint, South Carolina making the CFP would be monumental. Since joining the SEC in 1992, the program has had only one stretch of national relevance -- when it recorded three straight top-10 finishes under coach Steve Spurrier from 2011 to 2013. Those seasons represent South Carolina's only AP top-10 finishes, and the team hasn't won a league title in nearly 60 years, nor made it through a conference schedule with fewer than two league losses. Beamer has brought much-needed consistency and elevated the program's talent base. South Carolina now must start consistently beating SEC heavyweights, such as Georgia, and getting through the SEC grind with less damage.
Iowa State Cyclones
2024 record: 11-3
Record during four-team CFP era: 58-67 (.464)
Last conference title: 1912 (MVIAA)
Case to be next Indiana: Of all these teams, Iowa State has come closest to reaching the CFP, at least recently. The Cyclones made the 2024 Big 12 title game, where they were slight underdogs to Arizona State but had no answers for Cam Skattebo, Sam Leavitt and the Sun Devils in a 45-19 loss. ASU earned a conference championship and a once-unthinkable CFP berth, but Iowa State still went on to win a team-record 11 games and post its second AP top-15 finish in the past five seasons. Coach Matt Campbell has dramatically elevated the standard in Ames. Iowa State has recorded winning records in Big 12 play in seven of the past eight seasons, while producing NFL players like quarterback Brock Purdy, running backs David Montgomery and Breece Hall, and edge rusher Will McDonald.
Despite some key losses from the 11-3 squad, namely star wide receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, ISU returns a team that could make a title push in the typically wide-open Big 12. Rocco Becht returns for his third season as ISU's starting quarterback after eclipsing 3,500 passing yards and improving his efficiency. He'll once again share the backfield with Carson Hansen and will play behind an experienced line. Jon Heacock's defense includes some familiar names in the back seven, including cornerback Jontez Williams and safety Jeremiah Cooper.
An Iowa State playoff appearance would mirror Indiana's in terms of historic shock value. The Cyclones haven't captured a league title since the year the Titanic sank and Fenway Park was built. They have the longest drought without a league title of any FBS program and likely will need to end it to secure a CFP berth. Before Campbell arrived for the 2016 season, Iowa State had not been ranked at any point since 2005 and had not finished in the Top 25 since 2000, the program's only AP Top-25 finish since 1976. Although Campbell has made ISU a consistent and respected Big 12 program, the jump to the CFP would be massive.
Colorado Buffaloes
2024 record: 9-4
Record during four-team CFP era: 44-73 (.376)
Last conference title: 2001
Case to be next Indiana: Colorado would not sneak up on the CFP field like Indiana did this past season. Since Deion Sanders arrived on campus as coach in late 2022, he has raised the Buff's profile. The team saw its wins total more than double from Sanders' first season to his second and often looked like the Big 12's most talented roster this past fall. Until a late-season loss at Kansas, the Buffs were a popular pick to make the CFP. Sanders has made the playoff his top goal as he begins phase 2 as CU coach, without his sons Shedeur and Shilo on the team, and without two-way star and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter.
Colorado's ability to replace them and others will largely determine whether it can push for a championship in the Big 12, where Arizona State's run in 2024 showed that teams can close the CFP gap quickly. Improving the line-of-scrimmage play remains a priority in Boulder, and Colorado will need more run-pass balance on offense with Shedeur Sanders and Hunter both departing. There will be a fascinating quarterback battle between Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and Julian Lewis, ESPN's No. 12 recruit in the 2025 class. Colorado brings in another big group of transfers, including defensive linemen Jehiem Oatis (Alabama) and Tavian Coleman (Texas State), wide receiver Joseph Williams (Tulsa) and safety Tawfiq Byard (South Florida).
A Buffs run to the CFP would be the obvious next step after the 2024 season, but it would also represent an incredible rise. Not even Indiana had bottomed out recently like Colorado did in 2022, when the team finished 1-11 and was outscored 534-185. Other than 2016, when Colorado finished No. 10 in the final CFP standings and reached the Pac-12 title game, the program has been outside the national spotlight for the better part of the past 20 years. The team hasn't finished a season inside the AP top-15 since 2001, its last conference title.
North Carolina Tar Heels
2024 record: 6-7
Record during four-team CFP era: 68-60 (.531)
Last conference title: 1980
Case to be next Indiana: Of all the factors that went into Indiana's CFP push, Cignetti's presence was the most significant. Indiana hired a veteran coach with a proven record and vision for generating success. He essentially changed everything overnight. Sound familiar, Tar Heels fans? North Carolina shocked the football world by hiring Bill Belichick, who coached the New England Patriots to six Super Bowl championships and a 266-121 record. The Belichick-Cignetti comparison isn't really a fair one -- Belichick has never coached at the college level, and won't bring a gifted group of transfers with him from a previous stop -- but the effect of a major coaching move and the investments that come with it could end up being similar.
Belichick inherits a team that has a major question mark at quarterback, where Max Johnson is rehabbing a serious leg injury and eventually will compete with Purdue transfer Ryan Browne and freshman Bryce Baker. The Tar Heels lose All-America running back Omarion Hampton and will need playmakers to emerge all over the offense. Belichick's son, Steve, takes over a defense that will look quite different following an influx of transfers, including linemen Pryce Yates (UConn) and CJ Mims (East Carolina), linebacker Khmori House (Washington), corner Thaddeus Dixon (Washington) and safeties Peyton Waters (Washington) and Gavin Gibson (East Carolina).
North Carolina had a winning record during the four-team CFP era and reached the ACC title game in 2015 and 2022. But the Tar Heels couldn't break through, which has been their story for the better part of four decades. Despite being a brand-name school in a favorable location for recruiting, North Carolina has been unable to win the ACC since 1980 and has just two AP top-10 finishes since 1981. Mack Brown, Belichick's national championship-winning predecessor, couldn't get UNC to 10 wins in his second go-round in Chapel Hill.