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Who will be the next college football coach to win his first national title?

ESPN

When Ohio State's Ryan Day lifted the CFP National Championship trophy Jan. 20 in Atlanta, he joined the exclusive club of college football coaches who have claimed the sport's ultimate prize.

The retirement of Nick Saban, the NFL departure of Jim Harbaugh and the firings of Jimbo Fisher and Mack Brown briefly reduced the number of active coaches with national titles to just two: Georgia's Kirby Smart and Clemson's Dabo Swinney. Day became the third after leading Ohio State on a masterful run through the first 12-team College Football Playoff. His name can be scratched off of the list of most successful college coaches without a title.

Who will be the next coach to follow Day and win his first national title? Perhaps the man Day beat in Atlanta, Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman. The two coaches whose teams lost in the semifinals, Texas' Steve Sarkisian and Penn State's James Franklin, also are close.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning led his team to an undefeated regular season and a Big Ten title as a league newcomer and the No. 1 seed in the 12-team CFP. The playoff field also included Tennessee's Josh Heupel and others whose teams could soon be positioned for a title push.

Here's a look at the coaches on the cusp of their first titles, a group of wild-card coaches looking to maintain a possible championship trajectory and some who not long ago found themselves in Day's spot, but have since backslid.

Jump to a section:
The Close Ones
Wild Cards
Slipping Away

The Close Ones

Steve Sarkisian, Texas

Age: 50

Record: 38-17 at Texas (four years); 84-52 overall (11 years)

CFP appearances: Two. Lost to Washington in 2023 semifinal (Sugar Bowl) and lost to Ohio State in 2024 semifinal (Cotton Bowl)

Conference titles: Big 12 2023

Why he's close: Sarkisian has made back-to-back CFP appearances while coming out of different conferences, as Texas won the Big 12 in 2023 before making an impressive SEC debut this past season. The Longhorns also recorded their first two CFP wins this past season, beating ACC champion Clemson and then Big 12 champion Arizona State before falling to Ohio State. Sarkisian always has been a gifted playcaller, going back to his early years under Pete Carroll at USC, and continues to flummox defenses with leverage and creative personnel groupings. He also has shown growth as a head coach following his personal struggles at USC, and he leads the Texas program with a more refined approach following stops as an assistant for Alabama and the Atlanta Falcons.

Texas is maximizing its resources under Sarkisian, who has recruited at nationally elite levels not only at quarterback, where Arch Manning is set to step in this fall, but also along the lines of scrimmage. The Longhorns' offensive line had fallen off sharply under previous regimes and Sarkisian, alongside offensive coordinator/line coach Kyle Flood, has made significant upgrades and started to produce NFL draft picks again. Texas also is thriving along the defensive front. Sarkisian signed ESPN's top-ranked recruiting class in 2025 and Texas also has thrived with transfer portal acquisitions. The CFP has become an annual expectation under Sarkisian, who could soon break through for his first title.


Dan Lanning, Oregon

Age: 38

Record: 35-6 (three years)

CFP appearances: One. Lost to Ohio State in 2024 quarterfinal (Rose Bowl)

Conference titles: Big Ten 2024

Why he's close: When Mario Cristobal left for Miami, Oregon sought a coach who could maintain a pedal-down personnel approach while elevating the performance level on the field. The school somewhat surprisingly hired Lanning, a fast-rising assistant without head-coaching experience or any direct ties to Oregon or the Northwest. But the move has paid off as Oregon projects to be an annual CFP contender under Lanning. The Ducks' no-show against Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl shouldn't diminish their exceptional regular season. They swept through Big Ten play in their debut season, taking down Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Illinois and others, and surviving Boise State in non-league play. Oregon was the only FBS team to finish 13-0 and earned the No. 1 seed in the first 12-team CFP.

Lanning's struggles against archrival Washington in the Pac-12 had been his only major demerit entering 2024, and his success in winning a conference title while handling the travel and scouting challenges from a new league stood out. The next step is performing in the postseason, as Oregon never gave itself a chance against Ohio State. Could the Ducks have benefited from a regular-season loss and a more favorable CFP path? Sure. But they ultimately need to beat teams like Ohio State in the biggest games. The good news is Lanning's continued success in the personnel space has set up Oregon for more CFP pushes in the coming years.


Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame

Age: 39

Record: 33-10 (three years)

CFP appearances: One. Lost to Ohio State in 2024 national title game

Conference titles: N/A

Why he's close: Freeman's growth after Notre Dame's Week 2 loss against Northern Illinois to the national title game was both obvious and impressive. He had recorded notable wins in his first two seasons as coach and had modernized Notre Dame's recruiting and branding. But his head-scratching losses -- the second game of Freeman's tenure was a 2022 loss to Marshall -- seemingly overshadowed his accomplishments. Freeman, who had no head-coaching experience or Power 4 coordinator experience when he arrived as Notre Dame's defensive coordinator in 2021, seemed to be on a fairly steep learning curve. Even Notre Dame not having 11 players on the field for Ohio State's game-winning touchdown run in 2023 reinforced a perception that Freeman wasn't ready.

All of that is gone after he recorded Notre Dame's first three CFP wins and took a team besieged by injuries all the way to the championship stage. Notre Dame had talented pieces, but coaching largely propelled the team's CFP push. Freeman can now pitch a more exciting vision to recruits and the chance for Notre Dame to not only reach the CFP but also win games. If the Irish can continue to thrive at their traditional positions -- offensive line, defensive line, tight end, defensive back -- while bolstering areas like wide receiver and quarterback, they could soon win their first title since 1988.


James Franklin, Penn State

Age: 53

Record: 101-42 at Penn State (11 years); 125-57 overall (14 years)

CFP appearances: One. Lost to Notre Dame in 2024 semifinal (Orange Bowl)

Conference titles: Big Ten 2016

Why he's close: Franklin is perhaps the face of this list. Since guiding Penn State to a surprise Big Ten title in 2016, he has been positioned for a national title rush but has been unable to take the next step. Other than a dip in 2020 and 2021, Penn State has been one of the most consistent programs in the country, winning 10 or more games six times in the past nine years. The Nittany Lions have five AP top-10 finishes under Franklin, who avoids bad losses and has more wins in the past three seasons than all but three coaches -- Smart, Day and Lanning. Franklin's challenge is one that follows him like a shadow: an inability to win the biggest games. He's 4-20 against AP top-10 opponents and 1-15 against the AP top five.

Penn State has moved closer to a title, though, after a 2024 season that saw the Nittany Lions reach the Big Ten title game, make its first CFP appearance and win its first playoff games against SMU and Boise State. They held leads of 10-0 and 24-17 against Notre Dame in the semifinal before falling 27-24 on a field goal in the closing seconds. Franklin is recruiting talent and sending players to the NFL. Penn State made significant financial commitments to retain quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and others for the 2025 season. The team also made a coaching splash by hiring defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Ohio State. Franklin has the support he sought earlier in his tenure; he often praises university president Neeli Bendapudi and athletic director Pat Kraft. The next step is clear: Penn State's first national title since 1986.


Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

Age: 50

Record: 9-4 at Alabama (one year); 46-13 overall (five years)

CFP appearances: One. Lost to Michigan in 2024 national title game

Conference titles: Pac-12 2023

Why he's close: DeBoer finds himself in a fascinating position, needing improvement in his second season at Alabama to secure his future while also not being that far away from a legitimate title push. Remember, he took over a Washington team that went 4-8 in 2021 and reached the national championship game just two years later. DeBoer has more resources and top-end talent at Alabama, but must find the right mix of schemes and personnel. His first season in Tuscaloosa ended without a CFP appearance, as Alabama failed to score a touchdown against a subpar Oklahoma team and lost to undermanned Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. But there also were great moments -- a dramatic home win against Georgia, blowouts of Missouri and LSU and a narrow victory against South Carolina that appreciated as the season went along. DeBoer showed he could win big games in the SEC but lacked the consistency demanded at Alabama.

His track record suggests better results await in Year 2. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is returning to the staff and DeBoer will be able to select his quarterback from the talented trio of Ty Simpson, Austin Mack and incoming freshman Keelon Russell. Alabama also returns star wide receiver Ryan Williams along with wideout Germie Bernard and a solid group of linemen. If the team can address its depth at several spots and accelerate the offensive production, it should be in the CFP mix this fall and in the years that follow. DeBoer won three national titles at the NAIA level and has an overall college coaching record of 113-16. He also has shown the ability to win big games throughout his time as an FBS head coach.


Wild Cards

Brian Kelly, LSU

Age: 63

Record: 29-11 at LSU (three years); 195-73 overall (21 years)

CFP appearances: Two. Lost to Clemson in 2018 semifinal (Cotton Bowl) and to Alabama in 2020 semifinal (Rose Bowl)

Conference titles: Big East 2008 and 2009; MAC 2006

Why he's worth watching: Some would argue that Kelly has moved further from a title after leaving Notre Dame, which just played for one without him. He's still awaiting his first CFP appearance at LSU. Kelly couldn't build on a strong debut in 2022, when the Tigers reached the SEC title game and were led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, who would win the Heisman Trophy the following season. LSU went 9-4 in 2024 and didn't have the talent edge it normally enjoys. A strong winter portal performance -- LSU added wide receivers Barion Brown and Nic Anderson and addressed both lines with players such as Patrick Payton (Florida State), Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) -- has elevated the team's outlook for 2025, especially with 4,000-yard passer Garrett Nussmeier returning at quarterback. LSU also is the type of program that never seems far away from a title push. Kelly inspires all sorts of reactions, but the guy can coach, winning nine or more games in each of the past eight seasons. He twice took Notre Dame to the four-team CFP and trails only Iowa's Kirk Ferentz for most wins among active FBS coaches (204-195).


Josh Heupel, Tennessee

Age: 46

Record: 37-15 at Tennessee (four years); 65-23 overall (seven years)

CFP appearances: One. Lost to Ohio State in 2024 first-round matchup

Conference titles: 2018 AAC

Why he's worth watching: Tennessee is on a very promising trajectory under Heupel, whose hiring raised doubts at the time but whose on-field results have put those to rest. Heupel guided the Vols to their first CFP appearance last year, as well as two wins against Alabama in the past three seasons. (Before that, Tennessee had dropped 15 straight to its rival.) He oversaw the nation's No. 1 offense in 2022 and the nation's No. 6 defense this past season. If Tennessee can put it all together, it should not only reach the CFP regularly but start advancing. Heupel also has done well in the personnel space, signing ESPN's No. 11 class for 2025, his second straight top-15 class. And he's more than an offense-centric coach, as Tennessee has continually made strides on defense under coordinator Tim Banks and won big games. The next steps are competing for an SEC championship and performing better in the CFP.


Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss

Age: 49

Record: 44-18 at Ole Miss (five years); 105-52 overall (13 years)

CFP appearances: None

Conference titles: None

Why he's worth watching: Kiffin always generates more buzz than most coaches, but he has earned the attention of late by making Ole Miss a consistently relevant program in the SEC. The Rebels have won 10 or more games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1959 and 1960, and are enjoying their best stretch of national success since posting five straight AP top-five finishes under coach John Vaught from 1959 to 1963. Ole Miss might have had the SEC's most complete team in 2024 but missed the CFP following a late-season loss at Florida. Kiffin is undeniably getting closer to the CFP stage, though, as he has supplemented elite playcalling ability with more refined program leadership. He has more signature wins in recent years, including a November blowout win against Georgia. Ole Miss continues to commit resources for top portal players, and signed ESPN's No. 14 recruiting class for 2025.


Sherrone Moore, Michigan

Age: 39

Record: 9-5 (one year)

CFP appearances: None

Conference titles: None

Why he's worth watching: Moore doesn't have a national title as a head coach but played a significant role in Michigan's championship run two years ago. He not only served as the team's offensive coordinator but stood in for Harbaugh following a Big Ten suspension and coached the final three regular-season games, recording wins against Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State. His first season as Wolverines' coach was not surprisingly uneven, as Michigan struggled mightily at quarterback and finished 130th nationally in passing, ahead of only the three service academies. But he finished with a stunning upset of Ohio State in Columbus and an almost equally shocking bowl win against Alabama. Michigan stepped up to land its quarterback of the future in Bryce Underwood and is willing to flex its financial clout for top players. Moore still must prove he can oversee a consistent winner, but his big-game prowess is clear and Michigan should soon return to CFP contention.


Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State

Age: 34

Record: 14-12 (two years)

CFP appearances: One. Lost to Texas in 2024 quarterfinal (Peach Bowl)

Conference titles: Big 12 2024

Why he's worth watching: The 2024 season featured several unlikely CFP teams, but only one, Arizona State, was picked to finish last in its league's summer media poll. The Sun Devils went on to win the Big 12 in their first season as a member, winning six straight and throttling Iowa State in the conference title game. Although they didn't advance in the CFP, they performed better than any of the teams that lost in the first round or the quarterfinals, taking Texas to overtime and getting within just one stop of a monumental win. Dillingham is no longer the youngest FBS coach (that would be 33 year-old Zach Kittley of Florida Atlantic), but he represents a new wave of coaches, accustomed to the transfer portal and the other realities of running programs in 2025 that often anger his veteran colleagues. While he remains young, Dillingham has significant experience in coaching, which includes stops at Memphis, Florida State, Auburn and Oregon. He leads an ASU program that has long been seen as an underachiever and has many natural advantages with its size and location.


Mario Cristobal, Miami

Age: 54

Record: 22-16 at Miami (three years); 84-76 overall (13 years)

CFP appearances: None

Conference titles: Pac-12 2019 and 2020, Sun Belt 2010

Why he's worth watching: Cristobal's inclusion will be met with some skepticism, as he never reached the CFP at Oregon -- despite two conference titles and three Pac-12 championship game appearances -- and has yet to truly break through at Miami. He's still viewed around the country as a coach capable of stockpiling talent but not always able to get the most out of his roster. Miami fell short of the CFP in 2024 despite a quarterback in Cam Ward who led the nation in passing touchdowns (39) and finished second in passing yards (4,313), and a fairly vulnerable ACC. But Miami often will have the most talented or second most talented team in a very winnable conference, and could soon find the right mix of personnel, schemes and culture to make its first CFP appearance and then go on a run. Cristobal remains one of the nation's best recruiters, and has more resources at his disposal than previous Hurricanes' coaches. I could see Miami eventually compiling a team like LSU in 2019, where the talent level would overwhelm the competition.


Slipping Away

Lincoln Riley, USC

Age: 41

Record: 26-14 at USC (three years); 81-24 overall (eight years)

CFP appearances: Three at Oklahoma. Lost to Georgia in 2017 semifinal (Rose Bowl), to Alabama in 2018 semifinal (Orange Bowl) and to LSU in 2019 semifinal (Peach Bowl)

Conference titles: Big 12 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 (all at Oklahoma)

Why he's slipping away: Riley won Big 12 titles and reached the CFP in each of his first three seasons as a head coach after taking over from Bob Stoops. He also helped the Sooners to their first CFP appearance in his first season as offensive coordinator in 2015. The expectation when he left Norman for Los Angeles was that he would fast-track USC to the CFP for the first time, especially after he brought quarterback Caleb Williams with him. Riley was joining the most tradition-rich program on the West Coast but didn't know at the time that USC would be leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. The Trojans reached the Pac-12 championship game in Riley's first year but fell to Utah, costing them a CFP appearance. The team didn't seriously contend for a playoff spot in the past two seasons and continues to go through significant roster turnover with the transfer portal. Riley has repeatedly noted areas of the program that needed major upgrades and that the process would take some time. USC made a notable hire with general manager Chad Bowden and could soon turn its close losses -- the Trojans lost five games by seven points or fewer in 2024 -- into more wins. But the Big Ten is only getting tougher and USC's personnel strategy has lagged behind that of some of the league's top programs.


Mike Norvell, Florida State

Age: 43

Record: 33-27 at Florida State (five years); 71-42 overall (nine years)

CFP appearances: None

Conference titles: ACC 2023, AAC 2019

Why he's slipping away: Florida State fell victim to by far the biggest snub in CFP history, left out of the field in 2023 despite an undefeated regular season capped by an ACC championship. But the season was still a major step forward, and instead of rebooting for another playoff push, Florida State fell apart in 2024, going 2-10 with just one win against an FBS opponent. The program's overreliance on the portal became exposed, as did some deficient position groups that lacked depth and development. Norvell is a gifted coach, but it's very difficult to climb out of the position Florida State finds itself in, especially without a demonstrated ability to recruit at an elite level. FSU is still committed to winning and Norvell brought in two notable coordinators in Gus Malzahn (offense) and Tony White (defense). The ACC isn't as treacherous as the Big Ten or SEC but Clemson is seemingly on track again, SMU made the CFP and a few other programs are ahead of FSU from a personnel standpoint.


Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Age: 51

Record: 13-13 at Wisconsin (two years); 76-38 overall (nine years)

CFP appearances: One at Cincinnati. Lost to Alabama in 2021 semifinal (Cotton Bowl)

Conference titles: AAC 2020 and 2021

Why he's slipping away: Fickell became the first coach to take a Group of 5 program to the CFP, as Cincinnati beat Notre Dame, Houston and others en route to the Cotton Bowl in 2021. He waited patiently for Power 4 opportunities and somewhat surprisingly chose Wisconsin, which boldly hired him with the 12-team CFP very much in mind. Wisconsin split with coach Paul Chryst, who went 67-26 with three division titles and three New Year's Six bowl appearances, because the team had started to fall off at a time where more playoff opportunities were on the horizon. Fickell had been part of national titles as an Ohio State assistant and knew what it took to reach the biggest stages of the sport, and could give Wisconsin a fresh, more refined approach. But the team went backward in his first two seasons, missing a bowl game last year for the first time since 2001 and recording its worst two-year stretch since 2001 and 2002. Wisconsin's identity of the power run and elite line play has faded a bit, and the Badgers face a tougher road to regain Big Ten relevance. Fickell enters a pivotal Year 3 with a new offensive coordinator in Jeff Grimes and other new assistants.