The finale of the first 12-team College Football Playoff is set: Following a frantic final 10 minutes in Miami, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish advanced to the title game with a 27-24 win over the Penn State Nittany Lions. The Irish will face the Ohio State Buckeyes. Against the Texas Longhorns, Ohio State looked more mortal than it had in the first two rounds. With the game tied in the fourth quarter, power running and huge plays from the Buckeyes' defense sent Ohio State to the title game.
Here are the takeaways from the semifinals:
Jump to a game:
Texas-Ohio State | Notre Dame-Penn State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Ohio State 28, Texas 14
What just happened?
With its offense battling ups and downs against one of the best defenses in the country, Ohio State was able to lean on the best defense in the country. While Oregon was able to score 32 and 21 points against the Buckeyes in two meetings this season, no one else could top even 17. And thanks to another clutch goal-line stand, Texas didn't either.
Back on Nov. 2, Ohio State, nursing a 20-13 lead against Penn State in Happy Valley, stuffed Penn State on four straight snaps from 3 or fewer yards in a brilliant fourth-quarter goal-line stand. Just over two months later, the Buckeyes did it again. Texas faced a first-and-goal from the OSU 1, but Ohio State pushed the Horns backward for 17 yards over four plays. Jack Sawyer sacked and stripped his former roommate, onetime Ohio State quarterback Quinn Ewers, and after an absolutely perfect bounce, Sawyer collected the ball and took it 83 yards for the game-clinching score.
Jack Sawyer delivers a clutch sack and fumble return for 83 yards to all but send Ohio State to the College Football Playoff title game.
After two virtually perfect performances against Tennessee and Oregon, Ohio State had to grind this one out. The offense, nearly flawless and dominated by freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith, suffered a couple of major droughts, first punting on four straight drives in the first half, then going scoreless for three straight in the second. Over just three targets, Smith could manage only one catch for 3 yards. But running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson came up huge, with the former rushing for two touchdowns and the latter bursting for a 75-yard touchdown catch on a screen pass late in the first half.
Will Howard passes to TreVeyon Henderson, who takes off for an incredible 75-yard Ohio State touchdown.
Judkins' second touchdown capped a brilliant 13-play, 88-yard, nearly eight-minute drive and gave the Buckeyes a 21-14 lead that, thanks to Sawyer & Co., they wouldn't relinquish.
Key stats
Yards: Ohio State 370, Texas 341
Yards per play: Ohio State 6.5, Texas 5.0
Third downs: Texas 5-for-15 (1-for-11 outside of a single drive), Ohio State 3-for-10
Fourth downs: Texas 1-for-3, Ohio State 1-for-1
Will Howard (Ohio State): 24-for-33 for 289 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and 2 sacks (7.8 yards per attempt)
Quinn Ewers (Texas): 23-for-39 for 283 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT and 4 sacks (6.0 yards per attempt)
TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State): 19 combined carries and catches, 175 yards, 3 touchdowns
Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue (Texas): 32 combined carries and catches, 163 yards, 2 touchdowns
Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate (Ohio State): 16 targets, 12 catches, 138 yards
Tackles for loss: Ohio State 9, Texas 4
Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State): 10 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, 2 hurries, 2 breakups, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, 1 touchdown
Sonny Styles (Ohio State): 9 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 pass breakup, 1 forced fumble
Anthony Hill Jr. and David Gbenda (Texas): 7 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT
Impact plays
Per ESPN Analytics, Ohio State's win probability was 63.0% after a pass interference penalty gave Texas first-and-goal at the 1. Four plays later, the Buckeyes' win probability was 99.9%.
This game was basically decided in six plays.
1. Jaydon Blue tied the game at 7-7 in the final minute of the first half thanks to a beautiful, 18-yard rail route.
2. The Buckeyes responded immediately, with Henderson exploding into the open field and taking a screen pass 75 yards for a score.
3. After an incredible no-look flip from Ewers to Quintrevion Wisner kept a late third-quarter drive alive ...
Quinn Ewers flips the ball to Quintrevion Wisner as he is getting sacked and Wisner runs for a first down.
... Blue's second rail-route touchdown tied the game once again, and we headed into the fourth quarter tied at 14-14.
4. After the teams traded punts, Ohio State mounted a long drive early in the fourth quarter, and Will Howard unleashed a perfect, 18-yard keeper on fourth-and-1 -- the only reason it wasn't a touchdown was because a gopher or a turf monster tripped him up in the open field -- and four plays later, Judkins' second TD gave the Buckeyes a 21-14 lead.
5. After a couple of huge completions from Ewers and a pair of pass interference penalties for Ohio State (the Buckeyes committed nine penalties to Texas' five), JT Tuimoloau and Arvell Reese stuffed Jerrick Gibson on first-and-goal from the 1, then Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom teamed up to stuff Wisner for a 7-yard loss. That play alone cost Texas about 16% in the win probability department.
6. Sawyer's sack-and-strip will go down among the most legendary Ohio State defensive plays of all time. (Or at least, it will if the Buckeyes go on to win the national title.)
See you next fall, Texas
An inconsistent offense dealt with one drought too many. Texas' offense was inconsistent for much of the season but constantly came up with just the right playcall and just the right execution. The only reason Arizona State wasn't playing in the semis instead of the Horns was that Texas' first two and last three snaps (including a 2-point conversion) were absolutely perfect and accounted for 22 of its 39 points. Texas had moments of brilliance against Ohio State, too, but had to work hard to hit even 14 points, and on the game's deciding drive, the Buckeyes' Jimmies and Joes made the plays against the Longhorns' X's and O's.
Texas now heads into a particularly interesting offseason. The Longhorns had a lot of particularly young difference-makers -- receivers Matthew Golden (without whom Texas doesn't beat ASU) and Isaiah Bond and safety Michael Taaffe were juniors, linebackers Anthony Hill Jr. and Liona Lefau and leading rusher Quintrevion Wisner were sophomores, ace pass rusher Colin Simmons and wideout Ryan Wingo were freshmen -- who could power another playoff run this time next year. But the offensive line will need some retooling, and uncertainty at quarterback will need sorting. Will Ewers go pro? Transfer? Is Arch Manning officially ready to take the reins after basically serving as a Wildcat QB in his sophomore season?
This is a rich and well-run program. With a high-level quarterback, Texas will be right back in the CFP a year from now and will have as good a chance as anyone to break through what is currently a two-year semifinal glass ceiling. But a year after coming 11 yards short against Washington in the semifinals, the Longhorns came 3 feet short of tying Ohio State late. That will sting for a bit.
What's next
Ohio State is indeed now 60 minutes from ultimate redemption. And that is a story for the 12-team playoff era. In any previous season, the Buckeyes' loss to Michigan, which dropped them to 10-2 and out of the running for the Big Ten championship, would have eliminated them from contention for the national title. But instead, after a couple of utterly toxic weeks, the Buckeyes showed up as the No. 8 seed in the CFP, ripped off two nearly perfect performances against Tennessee at home and against Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and then survived a gut-check game against Texas not too far from Austin.
The Big Ten has had a spectacular postseason, exceeding projections left and right. And while Notre Dame's win over Penn State prevented the conference from having both teams in the national title game, the Buckeyes still made it. And per ESPN BET, they open as a 9.5-point favorite.
If the Irish are to win their first national title since 1988, they'll have to do it how they've done it all season: with a depth chart that keeps getting thinner.
10 games down. One more to go to crown a champion 🏆 pic.twitter.com/Qjc4zC43Z0
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) January 11, 2025
After all the tough injuries they've suffered over the course of the 2024 season -- multiple offensive linemen, star cornerback Benjamin Morrison, star defensive lineman Rylie Mills -- it appeared they suffered yet another one when left tackle Anthonie Knapp left the semifinal in the first quarter. He was replaced by Tosh Baker, who had played just 60 snaps all season. We've wondered all season when injuries might finally catch up to Notre Dame, and it sure looked like it would finally happen against Penn State. It didn't.
Somehow the Irish got by despite getting dominated up front for much of the game. And against Ohio State's otherworldly defensive front, that might continue to be the case in the national title game. Ohio State will have the advantage in Atlanta, but somehow the Irish keep overcoming the attrition. Who's to say they can't do it for another 60 minutes?
Notre Dame has leaned heavily on the run game all season, but Ohio State held Texas' Wisner and Blue to 62 yards in 21 carries in the semis and held Oregon's Jordan James and Noah Whittington to 17 yards in 13 carries in the quarters. To prevent the Buckeyes from winning the title, the Irish will have to force quite a few mistakes from Howard and the Ohio State offense and score touchdowns in every red zone trip they create. If we've learned anything this season, it's that Ohio State's incredible defense isn't particularly willing to let you do that.
Capital One Orange Bowl: Notre Dame 27, Penn State 24
What just happened?
Mitch Jeter's 41-yard field goal with seven seconds left, which seemed to change directions about three times, handed Notre Dame a three-point win after a classic final 10 minutes. The three factors that won the Fighting Irish the game: the middle eight, third downs and one horrid pass. Let's walk through them.
1. The middle eight. In drives that start in the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third, Notre Dame's point differential was plus-93 through 14 games. The Fighting Irish might have been the best middle eight team in the country, and they're in the national title game because of it. First, they scored 17 points in under 60 seconds on both sides of halftime in a 23-10 win over Georgia. Then, after a mostly dreadful first 28 minutes in Miami, they managed the clock perfectly, driving for a field goal at the halftime buzzer -- despite starting quarterback Riley Leonard briefly coming out of the game -- and then roaring down the field for a touchdown drive to start the second half. They scored 10 points without PSU's offense touching the ball, and it made a massive difference in an eventual three-point win.
Notre Dame's scoring differential in the past two games
Middle eight minutes: plus-27
Other 52 minutes: minus-11
2. Third downs. There were 28 third downs Thursday night: Notre Dame went 11-for-17, and Penn State went 3-for-11, meaning the Fighting Irish won 19 of 28 overall (68%). Penn State managed a couple of huge fourth-down conversions, but even if you count those as Nittany Lions wins, Notre Dame was over 60%. Among the Fighting Irish's conversions were four Leonard rushes for 25 yards, two Mitchell Evans receptions for 37 yards and two Jaden Greathouse receptions for 16 yards. Among PSU's failed third-down attempts were a particularly costly dropped pass in the end zone by Nicholas Singleton (on an admittedly poor pass from Drew Allar), a huge sack by Rod Heard II and a no-gain scramble by Allar. Penn State probably won a majority of the other plays in the game, but Notre Dame won the most important ones.
3. One horrid pass. Penn State's defense came up big late, stopping Notre Dame outside of field goal range in the final minute. It seemed likely that this game would go to overtime, but PSU's Allar, trying to make a play, double-clutched and threw an inaccurate pass across his body. Christian Gray picked it off.
Drew Allar is picked off by Christian Gray with 33 seconds remaining.
Notre Dame advanced the ball 19 yards, milked the clock most of the way and won the game via Jeter's right leg.
Key stats
Yards: Notre Dame 383, Penn State 339
Yards per play: Notre Dame 5.2, Penn State 5.2
Third downs: Notre Dame 11-for-17, Penn State 3-for-11
Fourth downs: Penn State 2-for-2, Notre Dame 0-for-0
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard: 15-for-23 for 223 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 3 sacks and 15 carries for 45 yards
Penn State QB Drew Allar: 12-for-23 for 135 yards and 1 interception.
Notre Dame RBs Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Aneyas Williams: 26 combined carries and catches, 147 yards and 1 touchdown
Penn State RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen: 37 combined carries and catches, 205 yards and 3 touchdowns
Notre Dame wide receivers: 9 catches for 130 yards and 1 TD; Penn State wide receivers: 0 catches for 0 yards
Tackles for loss: Penn State 8, Notre Dame 2
Sacks: Penn State 5, Notre Dame 1
Penn State defensive linemen Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton: 11 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 pass breakup, 1 QB hurry
Impact plays
The first three quarters were a meandering affair, with Penn State slowly scoping out a 10-0 lead and Notre Dame tying it with scores on each side of halftime. But things picked up over the last 10 minutes. After Penn State tied the score at 17, Dennis-Sutton dropped into coverage to pick off a Leonard pass along the sideline -- an absolutely perfect defensive playcall, maybe the best of the night -- and following a pass interference penalty on Adon Shuler, running back Nicholas Singleton scored his third touchdown of the night to give Penn State the lead.
Jaden Greathouse breaks the ankles of multiple Penn State defenders on his way to score a 54-yard touchdown.
Suddenly on the ropes, Notre Dame responded when PSU corner Cam Miller slipped to the ground covering Greathouse, and the sophomore receiver broke free for a 54-yard catch-and-run. Both teams had seen their win probability top 83% in the first seven minutes of the fourth quarter, but we were back to a 50-50 game. Then came Gray's interception and Jeter's field goal. There were some absolutely huge swings in this one.
See you next fall, Penn State
Oof. This one's going to hurt for quite a while. James Franklin's Nittany Lions were the vastly superior team over the first 28 minutes or so, but the failed Allar-to-Singleton third-down pass cost them four points and turned a potential 14-0 lead into just a 10-0 advantage. They responded well to Notre Dame's midgame 17-0 run with a 14-0 burst of their own, but they couldn't make the huge Dennis-Sutton pick last. And when the defense came up big late, Allar suffered maybe his biggest brainfart of the season at the worst possible time.
When we first began talking about the playoff's expansion, it was virtually unanimous that expansion would most help the Penn States of the world -- the consistently excellent programs that played second fiddle to blue bloods in major conferences. In the very first year of the 12-team playoff, the Nittany Lions came within just a single play or two of a shot at the crown. Instead, missed opportunities and a crippling error will stick with them.
PSU heads into the offseason in flux. Carter, one of the best players in the country (who played an outstanding game in Miami despite a left shoulder injury that he was clearly favoring all game), will almost certainly go pro, as will at least one (or maybe both) of Singleton and Allen. The 2022 recruiting class, which featured Carter, Allar, Singleton, Allen and Dennis-Sutton, among quite a few other contributors, was a game changer for the program, but the Nittany Lions will have to move on from some of those difference makers.
Allar has a decision to make, as well. He told the staff he will return, but even with an up-and-down playoff performance, he would likely be selected in the first two rounds of the 2025 NFL draft. Does he return to try to right Thursday night's fourth-quarter wrongs? Or does he move on and hand the reins to freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer (or a transfer)? This roster will feature lots of blue-chippers regardless, and Penn State signed the No. 12 2025 recruiting class, but it seems like it might be a pretty transitional winter and spring in State College.