The last mind-bending college football coaching carousel took place in the fall/winter of 2021, sparked by two highly successful coaches -- Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly -- who voluntarily jumped between top-tier programs.
Usually, no one chooses to leave Oklahoma or Notre Dame, but Riley and Kelly did, moving to USC and LSU, respectively. The cycle included moves at all four programs, plus changes at Oregon, Florida, Miami, Washington, TCU and Virginia Tech.
The 2025 coaching carousel could be the next to send the college football world spinning. Riley and Kelly are involved, this time not of their own accord, after underwhelming performances at their current jobs. Neither will enter the season with anywhere near as much pressure as Brent Venables, who is just 22-17 at OU after replacing Riley, already racking up seven more losses than Riley had during his historic five-year tenure.
After a predictably quiet carousel this year, where the splashiest move came at a middling ACC program (Bill Belichick to North Carolina), the next one could be bonkers. Not all hot-seat situations are the same, as contracts and buyouts -- along with the administrators and donors making the decisions -- loom large.
Here's a look at whom to watch in the 2025 coaching cycle, sorted by tiers.
Jump to a tier:
Don't do that again | We want this to work
It'll cost us | Need progress| Don't backslide
Retirement watch | Group of 5
Don't do that again
Mike Norvell, Florida State Seminoles
Not much has gone right for Norvell or FSU since the CFP snub in 2023. The Noles beat only one FBS opponent in 2024 and tumbled to 130th nationally in scoring and 88th in points allowed. The 2-10 mark is FSU's worst season since 1974, two years before Bobby Bowden arrived as coach.
Norvell will reboot with two notable new coordinators in Gus Malzahn (offense) and Tony White (defense). FSU's transfer portal mastery fizzled in 2024, and Norvell will need quarterback Thomas Castellanos and other newcomers to hit this fall. Norvell's post-2023 contract put him in the top 10 nationally in salary and will work in his favor, especially at a school not flush with cash. But he can't afford another face-plant this fall.
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Few coaches in the past 30 years have matched Gundy's consistency and longevity at his alma mater, which he led to 18 consecutive bowl appearances -- and 10 AP top-20 finishes -- from 2006 to 2023. But Oklahoma State went from preseason Big 12 contender to 3-9, its worst win percentage since 1955, and failed to win a conference contest. The failure nearly cost Gundy his job, and he returns with a restructured contract that includes a reduced salary and buyout, and more money toward player revenue-sharing. Gundy also brought in veteran coordinators in Todd Grantham (defense) and Doug Meacham (offense), who played with Gundy at Oklahoma State in the 1980s. Gundy's history suggests he will bounce back, but if he doesn't, Oklahoma State surely will move on.
We want this to work
Brent Venables, Oklahoma Sooners
The pain of Riley's departure was offset by the return of Venables, a beloved Sooners assistant for Bob Stoops from 1999 to 2011, as head coach. Ideally, OU would maintain its championship trajectory under a coach who wants to end his career in Norman, and make Riley regret his decision. But Venables is off to a shaky start. A Sooners team that never lost more than five games under Stoops and never more than two under Riley has dropped seven twice in three years under Venables. Other than a home win against Alabama, Oklahoma's first season in the SEC contained few bright spots.
Venables hopes the arrival of offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, both from Washington State, can spark an offense that averaged only 24 points. Veteran athletic director Joe Castiglione hasn't fired a coach since 1998, his first year at the school, and wants to avoid a change, but might not have a choice.
Hugh Freeze, Auburn Tigers
Freeze's return to the SEC in late 2022 sparked widespread reaction, but few could deny he fit Auburn's vision for improvement. Auburn's personnel had dropped off, and Freeze had the roots and results in the deep South to turn things around. But Tigers fans are still waiting, as Freeze sits at 11-14 overall and 5-11 in SEC play. His tenure includes home losses to New Mexico State, Cal, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Oklahoma.
The roster is improving, though, as Auburn landed consecutive top-10 recruiting classes and has added key transfers such as quarterback Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma) and wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. (Georgia Tech). A manageable 2025 schedule could lead to a breakthrough, which Freeze needs despite a contract that runs through the 2028 season.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin Badgers
When Wisconsin picked Fickell over Jim Leonhard, the hire represented a departure from the Barry Alvarez tree and a bold move toward trying to make the CFP for the first time. Fickell was the top Group of 5 candidate on the market, and implemented different approaches for personnel and scheme, including hiring offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the Air Raid. But things haven't worked out, as Wisconsin is 13-13 overall and backsliding in a deeper Big Ten.
There are also questions about the program's identity, which had been chiseled by Alvarez and maintained by his successors. Athletic director Chris McIntosh hired Fickell and will give him every realistic chance to get things on track. But how far can Wisconsin afford to slip?
Following a 33-8 victory over Tulane, Billy Napier speaks on how the development of their roster and culture lined up to help the Gators finish the season strong.
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama Crimson Tide
The prospect of following Nick Saban at Alabama was never going to be easy, even for a coach as gifted as DeBoer. It seemed to be a good move that Alabama looked outside the Saban sphere for his replacement, and DeBoer came to Tuscaloosa days after coaching Washington in the national title game. But DeBoer's first season seemed to confirm fears about whether he could succeed in a different region, especially while replacing a legend.
Alabama was wildly inconsistent, never winning more than three straight after a 4-0 start was punctuated by a victory against Georgia.
After missing the CFP and losing to undermanned Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl, DeBoer will need to deliver more in Year 2, even with an athletic director (Greg Byrne) firmly in his corner. He ultimately might be a better fit elsewhere, such as USC, but certainly wants to show he can win in the SEC first.
Mark Stoops, Kentucky Wildcats
Stoops has brought historic consistency to Kentucky and remained there when other opportunities surfaced. He made bowls every season from 2016 to 2023, twice finishing in the AP top-20. But most SEC coaches can't survive two rough seasons and Kentucky had very few brought spots last fall, other than its road upset of Ole Miss. The Wildcats averaged just 20.6 points and 330.4 yards per game, and failed to eclipse 20 points in any SEC game.
Stoops can secure his status with a bowl appearance in 2025, but a tough September and October schedule will make things challenging. He's signed through the 2030 season and earned $9 million in 2024. Kentucky would owe him 75% of his remaining salary if it made a change in 2025, which seems unlikely barring a repeat (or worse) of what we saw this fall.
Tony Elliott, Virginia Cavaliers
Elliott is working under a different timeline than most Power 4 coaches with an 11-23 record. The November 2022 shooting that claimed the lives of three Virginia players left Elliott in an incredibly difficult position, especially for a first-time coach. Elliott also was hired by Virginia athletic director Carla Williams and is well liked.
The team made progress in 2024, beating Boston College and Pitt, but also missed a bowl again and dropped its fourth straight to Virginia Tech. Elliott's contract ends in the spring of 2028, and Virginia has been more active in the portal, adding quarterbacks Chandler Morris and Daniel Kaelin among others. But a bowl appearance will be necessary in Year 4.
It's going to cost us
Lincoln Riley, USC Trojans
After three coaches with direct connections to Pete Carroll and/or USC couldn't replicate Carroll's magic, the school looked beyond its borders and landed a big fish in Riley, who had a 55-10 record and four playoff appearances at Oklahoma. But Riley hasn't lifted USC to the CFP and is just 15-11 in his past two seasons. USC's bizarre 2024 season included two wins against SEC opponents in Las Vegas but a 1-4 mark in Big Ten road games.
A December transfer portal exodus, which included dynamic receiver/returner Zachariah Branch, once again raised questions about Riley's personnel strategy. Year 4 will be significant as USC misses Ohio State and Penn State on the schedule but must travel to Notre Dame and Oregon.
Athletic director Jen Cohen didn't hire Riley, and industry sources have pointed to some tension around the program. Riley still has seven years left on a megadeal with a 2025 buyout believed to be around $80 million, prohibitive for just about any program.
Brian Kelly, LSU Tigers
Kelly left a program where he was able to make the CFP but not advance for a place that, despite frequent chaos, always has the potential to win it all. Each of LSU's three coaches before Kelly -- Ed Orgeron, Les Miles and Nick Saban -- all won national championships and did so by his fourth season in Baton Rouge. Kelly won an SEC West Division title in his first year with the Tigers and coached Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels in 2023, but an 8-4 regular season this fall that included three straight double-digit losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida stirred some discontent.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will be back in 2025 and LSU made some significant portal upgrades at wide receiver and defensive line. Kelly's contract puts him in a good spot -- the deal runs through 2031 and has a buyout around $52 million in 2025 -- as does the fact athletic director Scott Woodward hired him. But LSU coaches are judged by national championships and Kelly must show he's getting closer to winning one.
Progress needed
Brent Brennan, Arizona Wildcats
The sting of coach Jedd Fisch's departure to Washington quickly wore off as Brennan, a Dick Tomey disciple who had targeted the Arizona job for years, arrived and inherited key pieces from a 10-win team. Brennan's first season, however, couldn't have gone much worse, as Arizona went 4-8 and dropped seven of its final eight games. Despite returning stars Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona finished 115th nationally in scoring. There was even some buzz going into a mid-November game against Houston that Brennan would be fired if the Wildcats lost (they didn't). Athletic director Desiree Reed-Francois didn't hire Brennan and hasn't hesitated to make changes in the past. His buyout would be $7.5 million in 2025.
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati Bearcats
Satterfield's move from Louisville to Cincinnati got him away from a downtrending situation, cleared the way for Louisville to bring home Jeff Brohm and gave Satterfield a fresh start with a program entering the Big 12. Satterfield, though, is just 8-16 in two years and 4-14 in Big 12 play.
Another poor season should trigger a change at a program that made the four-team CFP in 2021, averaged 10.6 wins from 2018 to 2022 and and hasn't posted three consecutive losing records since 1992. Athletic director John Cunningham hired Satterfield, whose contract runs through 2028, and will be patient with him. But Cincinnati has made significant investments in football after Luke Fickell's run and needs to see results.
Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State Bulldogs
To be clear, Lebby absolutely deserves more than two years in Starkville, and Mississippi State can't afford another quick coaching change. The program enjoyed historic consistency under Dan Mullen, but Lebby is the team's fourth coach since 2019. He should get every opportunity to get things right, especially because athletic director Zac Selmon hired him. But after going 2-10 in Year 1 and 0-8 in the SEC, Mississippi State's first winless conference season since 2002, some improvement is needed for 2025.
The Bulldogs were competitive against Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss, and, next season, won't play outside Mississippi until October. Lebby can't have a repeat of this fall.
Can't backslide
Sam Pittman, Arkansas Razorbacks
Pittman was among a small group of Power 4 coaches who entered the 2024 season on the hot seat but removed themselves. Arkansas recorded a signature win against Tennessee and navigated a tough schedule to go 7-6, which triggered a one-year rollover for Pittman's contract.
Pittman is just 30-31 and 14-28 in SEC play, and might need to match or exceed his 2024 output to secure his spot for 2025. He's well liked and Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek hired him, but the school also has higher aspirations and would have a very strong candidate pool if its job came open.
Billy Napier, Florida Gators
Votes of confidence are often bad signs for coaches, but Napier validated his with how Florida finished a season that some thought would be his last in Gainesville. Napier navigated a brutal schedule, ending with wins against LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and Tulane in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl.
Napier has a promising young quarterback in DJ Lagway and an improving roster that includes a top-10 recruiting class, but his record is just 19-19 at Florida, a program still seeking its first CFP appearance. The 2025 schedule doesn't let up much, and Napier must build on what he just did.
Brent Pry, Virginia Tech Hokies
The hot-seat talk bubbled up around Pry in November, and if the Commonwealth Cup had gone differently, Virginia Tech could have had a decision to make after a disappointing fall. Pry's second consecutive 6-6 regular season got him to a bowl game, but he will enter Year 4 with a new defensive coordinator and a staff that will include former longtime Hokies DC Bud Foster as an advisor/analyst.
Pry is halfway through his contract and Virginia Tech isn't in the best position to eat a seven-figure buyout. Virginia Tech should be more competitive in a very winnable ACC, especially with quarterback Kyron Drones back. The Hokies have eclipsed seven wins just once since 2017.
Justin Wilcox, California Golden Bears
The questions at Cal are always more about investment/interest than expectations. Perhaps bowl eligibility, which Wilcox achieved the past two seasons and four times in his tenure, is good enough at a place that will never be cutthroat about results. Cal undoubtedly missed an opportunity in 2024, dropping seven games with a team that featured strong talent on both sides of the ball.
The Bears lost five games by eight points or fewer, continuing a problematic trend under Wilcox, who is 6-19 in one-score games since 2020, and 42-50 overall. Wilcox is signed through 2027 and should be safe as long as he keeps hitting the six-win mark.
Retirement watch
Kyle Whittingham, Utah Utes
Whittingham took nine days from the end of the season to announce his return, Michael Jordan style, for a 21st season as Utes coach. If 2024 had gone as planned -- Utah was picked to win the Big 12 in its first season in the league -- perhaps Whittingham would have retired in style. He has said he didn't want to coach past 65, and celebrated his milestone birthday in November.
The goal now is to get the program back on track with a new offensive coordinator in Jason Beck. If Utah rebounds, expect Whittingham to hand off the program to Morgan Scalley, the Utes' defensive coordinator, in 2026.
Kirk Ferentz, Iowa Hawkeyes
Ferentz turns 70 weeks before the 2025 season, which will mark his 27th as Iowa's coach, the longest tenure in the FBS. He has won at least 61.5% of his games in every season since 2014, and has had only one losing regular season since 2001. But Iowa didn't meet expectations this fall with a veteran roster, and though the offense improved, the team must find its way in a tougher Big Ten.
Ferentz is under contract through the 2029 season. He should make the call on when he steps aside but will show up in this category every year until he does.
Group Of 5
Kenni Burns, Kent State Golden Flashes
Burns is 1-23 with the Golden Flashes and still searching for his first win against an FBS opponent. Kent State was the nation's only winless team in 2024. Although Burns has one of the nation's toughest jobs and works for an athletic director (Randale Richmond) who hired him, he needs to show some on-field progress in Year 3.
Trent Dilfer, UAB Blazers
The Dilfer experiment hasn't worked so far in Birmingham as the former NFL quarterback-turned-coach is 7-17 in two years (6-11 in AAC play). Dilfer's decision to bring his grandson to the interview table after a loss, while remarking, "It's not like this is freakin' Alabama," didn't sit well for many at UAB. Athletic director Mark Ingram, who hired Dilfer, remains supportive, but for how much longer without better results?
Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Athletic director Ryan Ivey retained Cumbie for a fourth season, pointing to progress on defense and in other areas. Cumbie brought in veteran offensive assistant Tony Franklin to oversee a unit that averaged 20.9 points per game and slipped to 113th in rushing offense. At 11-26, Cumbie needs bowl eligibility and possibly more to ensure a return in 2026.