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College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 14

After losing to Syracuse, Damien Martinez and his teammates are left to wonder if they'll hear Miami called when the playoff pairings are announced. Rich Barnes/Imagn Images

One of the wildest college football regular seasons came to a close Thanksgiving weekend, giving us another plateful of upsets, ranging from mild (South Carolina over Clemson) to spicy (Syracuse over Miami) to flaming-hot (Michigan over Ohio State).

That leaves just the conference championship games left to settle who plays where and when in the College Football Playoff and the rest of the bowl games -- and there's still plenty to be settled. Other than the 18 teams playing for their league title, everyone else's résumé is complete.

So how did the latest results impact the CFP and bowl matchups?

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day (Dec. 8).

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 -- ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 12 Alabama at No. 5 Notre Dame

Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Texas

Bonagura: No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Ohio State

Bonagura: No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Penn State

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: For Ohio State, the loss to Michigan was frustrating for all the obvious reasons, but I'm not convinced it will have a significant impact on the Buckeyes' seeding. We'll find out soon enough, of course, but this is still a team that deserves to be ahead of Penn State and Indiana based on head-to-head wins (assuming Penn State loses to Oregon in the Big Ten championship game), and that doesn't leave much room to fall. In a strange way, it could end up being beneficial as now the Buckeyes won't be subject to injury risks in the Big Ten title game and they get a chance to reset. The final at-large spot is setting up as a circular debate, but after Florida State got left out of the playoff last year at 13-0, there won't be any sympathy for the teams that feel aggrieved.

Schlabach: A wild Rivalry Week shook up my bracket again after Ohio State and Miami fell. I'm projecting Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), SMU (ACC) and Boise State (Mountain West) as the top four seeds. I'm not sure Georgia will beat Texas for a second time in Saturday's SEC championship game (or a third time if they meet again in the CFP), but I can't ignore the Bulldogs' 30-15 victory Oct. 19 in Austin. The Bulldogs manhandled the Longhorns at the line of scrimmage, kind of the way Texas did against Texas A&M in its 17-7 victory Saturday night.

I'm projecting Arizona State to win the Big 12. The Sun Devils are my No. 11 seed, one spot ahead of Alabama. I'm not convinced the Crimson Tide will make the selection committee's final bracket, but I don't think it will ignore the Tide's head-to-head win over South Carolina, either. The Gamecocks are playing very good football right now, winning six games in a row, but the CFP selection committee likes to follow its protocols, and head-to-head results is one of its big ones. I also considered Miami for the No. 12 spot, but I think the Hurricanes' résumé is lacking compared to Alabama's.


CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 Boise State
Schlabach: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 Boise State

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 SMU
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 SMU

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: We've gone through this exercise every week since the preseason, and every week I shake my head at the obvious flaw in this format. Giving safe passage to four conference champions to the quarterfinals is reasonable -- I would even say it's healthy for the sport overall -- it just doesn't make any sense to give the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds to those teams. When it's possible the consensus opinion is that the No. 3 seed is the seventh-best team and the No. 4 seed is the eight-best team in the quarterfinal round, it makes a mockery of the concept that there are seedings at all. Reseeding this round is such an easy fix to ensure the competitive integrity of the playoff.

Schlabach: I agree with Kyle's argument again, but with a little less vigor after the results of the past two weeks. Oregon is the only unbeaten team left in the FBS, but it wouldn't stun me to see the Ducks fall to Penn State in Saturday's Big Ten championship game. It's not that I trust Nittany Lions coach James Franklin to produce a big victory, it's that I just don't think there's a dominant team like we've seen in the past. That's going to make for a very fun 12-team playoff. I have the four higher-seeded teams -- No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 6 Texas, No. 7 Ohio State and No. 8 Penn State -- advancing out of the first-round games. I have the Nittany Lions falling a few spots in my rankings because I'm projecting they'll lose to Oregon in the Big Ten title game. The same goes with Texas against Georgia in the SEC championship game.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 2 Georgia

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Oregon

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: I can't imagine anyone can be confident in filling out these playoff brackets right now. Every team in the mix -- even top-ranked Oregon, with a 16-13 win against Wisconsin a few weeks ago -- has shown some vulnerability over the past month. It all adds up to what might be the most anticipated postseason in college football history. As much as the sport's power brokers pretended the four-team format was an actual playoff, common sense told a different story. This year, that changes.

Schlabach: I'm sticking to my preseason prediction of Georgia vs. Oregon in the CFP National Championship. I have the Ducks taking down Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl, and the Bulldogs sneaking by Texas (again) in the Orange Bowl. Georgia was hitting its stride before struggling to put away Georgia Tech 44-42 in eight overtimes Friday night. With a few weeks to recover and rest, I think the Bulldogs might be ready for a CFP run. Now that Nick Saban is working for ESPN, no one in the sport has been better at getting his team ready for the postseason in recent years than Kirby Smart. Notre Dame will benefit from any easier path as the No. 5 seed.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Arkansas State

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: California vs. UNLV
Schlabach: California vs. UNLV

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. NC State
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. NC State

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. UConn
Schlabach: UTSA vs. South Alabama

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Ohio

Thursday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Ohio vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. UConn

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Texas Tech

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Liberty vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Memphis vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Arkansas

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. Florida
Schlabach: TCU vs. Oklahoma

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Washington State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Missouri vs. USC
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. USC

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Virginia Tech

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Minnesota

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Colorado State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Miami vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Boston College vs. Army
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: BYU vs. Colorado
Schlabach: BYU vs. Colorado

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Louisiana

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Missouri

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Washington

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Illinois vs. South Carolina

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Baylor vs. LSU

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Duke vs. LSU
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Florida

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Tulane

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Duke vs. Nebraska

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Bowling Green