With three weeks left in college football's regular season, before the most eventful and consequential Championship Week the sport has seen, there are still 29 teams with at least a 3% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Twenty of those teams are at 14% or higher, and only five are at 80% or higher.
The race for the 12 spots in the first year of the expanded playoff remains messy and delightful, and Saturday's action only enhanced that. Miami's ACC title odds took a major hit (and SMU's got a boost) with the Hurricanes' upset loss at Georgia Tech. Ole Miss' top-five breakthrough win over Georgia shook up the SEC race and gave the Rebels a potentially major boost in the CFP race. Alabama's 42-13 romp at LSU eliminated the Tigers from the playoff hunt and reminded everyone that the Crimson Tide's ceiling remains ridiculously high. And BYU staved off the Big 12 chaos demons with a controversial last-second comeback win over rival Utah (while Colorado continued to look very much like a Big 12 contender itself).
It was a heck of a Saturday (aren't they all in the fall?), but when we're talking about the CFP race, and we talk about all the teams that could make the field, we're not talking about who's likely to actually win the title. Even with a large playoff that will inevitably feature random and surprising results, seven teams -- Texas (17.2%), Ohio State (16.9%), Alabama (15.5%), Oregon (7.8%), Notre Dame (7.6%), Georgia (6.9%) and Penn State (5.1%) -- combine to have a 77% chance to win the title, per the Predictor. Add in three more (Ole Miss 4.9%, Tennessee 4.6% and Indiana 4.1%), and we're past 90%.
While we wait to see who can claim a spot in the field, let's take the time to look at who might actually win it all if they get there. More specifically, let's talk about the 25 people, games and units that are most likely to have a say in who takes the national title.
Jump to a section:
Two huge games | Five potential upsets
Five key units
Three spoilers | Three 50-50s
Seven QBs | Week 11 surprises
Heisman of week | 10 favorite games
Two huge games
From the list of 10 title favorites above, we still get two head-to-head matchups in the next two weeks before likely getting a couple of more in the Big Ten and SEC championship games.
25. Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16). I'm really curious how far the CFP committee drops Georgia this week following the Bulldogs' loss to Ole Miss. The committee tends to use head-to-head results as tiebreakers if two teams that played each other are anywhere close in the rankings, and if Georgia, which was third last week, were to fall to the No. 8-11 range, that would put the Dawgs close to both Bama and Ole Miss, the two teams that beat them. That might drop Georgia even further, far enough that a loss to Tennessee might knock the Dawgs out of serious playoff consideration altogether.
24. Indiana at Ohio State (Nov. 23). Georgia and Tennessee have combined for three losses; Ohio State and Indiana only have one between them, so this one doesn't have quite the same make-or-break feel. But with everything Indiana has accomplished this season -- Saturday's 20-15 conquest of Michigan clinched the Hoosiers' first 10-win season -- this game is almost more interesting than Vols-Dawgs for the simple uniqueness of the story. SP+ gives Indiana only a 22% chance of winning this one, but the Hoosiers have defied odds by spectacular margins all season.
Five potential upsets
Outside of the two big games above, the 10 favorites are mostly home-free when it comes to major challenges until Championship Week. But there are still five games that either (a) have a projected win probability of 82% or lower or (b) just seem intriguing to me.
23. Notre Dame vs. Army (Nov. 23). Army quarterback Bryson Daily returned from injury against North Texas on Saturday, and while he didn't do much throwing, he rushed for 163 yards and the game's only two touchdowns in a 14-3 win. The Army defense, meanwhile, held a prolific UNT offense to 283 yards. Daily will have to be at his sharpest for Army to upset a smoking-hot Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium, but the Black Knights are still a nightmare to prepare for (even though the Irish have already faced Navy this season).
22. Penn State at Minnesota (Nov. 23). Minnesota has overachieved against SP+ projections by double digits on three occasions this season, and they were all at home. The Gophers suffered a terribly frustrating loss to Rutgers on Saturday, but they still play stingy defense, particularly on third-and-long (which, as we'll discuss in a moment, is an occasional issue for Penn State), and Huntington Bank Stadium can be a tricky place to play -- just ask the Nittany Lions, who are 0-2 there all-time.
21. Notre Dame at USC (Nov. 30). USC has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 11.8 points per game. The Trojans' road form has held them back, but they have athleticism and an apparent home-field advantage. Notre Dame hasn't dropped any hint that it is interested in slipping up again -- the Irish's past four wins have had an average score of 46-9 -- but if their form drops at all, they do have some potential traps to avoid here.
20. Tennessee at Vanderbilt (Nov. 30). The tank appeared empty for banged-up Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia on Saturday; the Commodores could manage only 274 total yards and 4.6 yards per play in a meek 28-7 loss to South Carolina. But if they regain their footing while on bye in Week 12, they'll try to put together one last big home stand. If they can beat Bama and nearly beat Texas, they can scare the hell out of the in-state Volunteers too.
19. Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30). Texas A&M is still harboring playoff hopes of its own, even if Week 10's demoralizing loss at South Carolina knocked the Aggies back a bit. The Aggies will be projected favorites against New Mexico State and Auburn and could be facing win-and-you're-in stakes when Texas comes to town. The Longhorns looked fantastic Saturday, albeit against a massively banged-up Florida team, and they might still need this one to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Big stakes for the return of a big rivalry.
Five units that could ruin everything
Texas has the highest national title odds at this point, even if the Longhorns have about a 1 in 6 chance, according to the Predictor. The major reason they lead the way? They seem to have the fewest standout weaknesses. A few of the other major contenders don't appear to be quite so lucky.
18-16: Alabama's, Ohio State's and Penn State's third-and-long offenses. True, almost no one is actually good on third-and-long.
The national conversion rate for third-and-7 or more is just 25.4%, and only two teams (Kansas and Miami) are currently converting more than 40%. But for teams that have so much to offer in terms of talent, athleticism and track records -- and that's just at the receiver position -- Ohio State and Alabama are both surprisingly poor in these situations. The Buckeyes have converted just 27.0% of their third-and-longs (54th) and 9.1% of their third-and-very-longs (11 or more yards to go). Bama is at 20.9% (100th) and 5.6% (127th), respectively. And that's after the Crimson Tide showed some third-and-long brilliance against LSU, going 4-for-5 on third-and-8 or third-and-9. While they're untouchable when they're hitting those marks, just one game earlier they went 0-for-6 on third-and-long against Missouri. (In its biggest game of the season, Ohio State was 2-for-7 on third-and-long against Oregon.)
Penn State is in a slightly different boat. The Nittany Lions are decent in third-and-long situations -- 28.9% conversion rate, 35th nationally -- but in 11 third-and-very-long attempts this season, they've converted just one (9.1%), a 26-yard pass from Drew Allar to Liam Clifford against UCLA. In one such attempt against Ohio State, Allar was sacked by JT Tuimoloau and Kenyatta Jackson Jr. You're probably going to fall behind the chains in big games; the best teams tend to catch back up.
15. Oregon's run defense. By national standards, Oregon's run defense is perfectly solid. The Ducks rank 32nd in rushing success rate allowed and 47th in yards per carry (no sacks). But among the 10 primary title contenders, teams are more likely to run the ball well on Oregon than on anyone else.
EPA is one of the core components of the FPI, combining elements of both efficiency and explosiveness. And while Oregon's pass defense is about as good as anyone's, the run defense has suffered just enough glitches to rank last among serious contenders in EPA allowed per rush.
14. Georgia's passing game. Georgia scored 30 points on Texas despite three Carson Beck interceptions and scored 34 on both Alabama and Clemson. But the Dawgs were held under 14 for the second time this season in Saturday's 28-10 loss to Ole Miss. They generated almost no explosiveness whatsoever, gaining more than 20 yards just once and generating just a 33.3% passing success rate, second lowest of the season. They're down to 45th in points per drive (2.55), and after ranking seventh in QBR last season, Beck is currently 30th.
Three spoilers
Be it because they're maddening to face or because they could be the best player in any game they play, here are three guys who could either upend the race for a CFP spot or, in the case of a certain blue-clad Bronco, simply be the best player on the field against a major team in the first round of the CFP.
13. Bryson Daily, Army. Army's option offense went to a new place with Daily, only for him to get hurt midseason. After averaging more than 40 points through seven games, the Black Knights have scored just 34 combined in their last two games, the first against Air Force without Daily and the second upon Daily's return. The Black Knights are still unbeaten, and if their QB is 100% in two weeks, they could give Notre Dame trouble. They could also massively frustrate someone in the first round of the CFP if they get there. But that's only if Daily is 100 percent.
12. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State. Jeanty was the best player on the field when the Broncos nearly toppled Oregon in Week 2. He has topped 180 yards from scrimmage seven times in nine games, and he went for 221 and three scores in Boise State's 28-21 win over Nevada on Saturday. If the Broncos get to the CFP, and especially if they end up playing the No. 5 seed in the first round, they will face an obvious talent gap overall. But they might have the best player on the field. That can make one hell of a difference.
11. Marcel Reed (or Conner Weigman), Texas A&M. When properly dialed in, A&M is a physical and very frustrating team to play. And with Reed and Weigman, they can give opponents very different looks to prepare for on offense. Weigman helmed a precise passing attack in a blowout of Missouri, and when Weigman struggled against LSU, the run-first Reed subbed in and dominated. The Aggies are inconsistent, but they could give Texas hell. And if they do it to Texas, they might earn the right to do the same to a first-round playoff opponent.
Three 50-50s (potential contenders, potential spoilers)
These three guys are the pilots for lower-level title favorites, and two of them get a shot at another favorite soon enough. (The other might in a first-round playoff game.)
10. Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee. After a dire midseason funk, the former five-star prospect torched Mississippi State for 174 yards on just eight completions before leaving the game as a precaution with an unspecified injury. Coach Josh Heupel said Iamaleava should be able to play against Georgia, and if he performs even reasonably well against the Dawgs and gets the typical elite defensive play from the Vols' D, we could see an upset. (And if we do, both the SEC championship and a CFP run are on the board for Tennessee.)
9. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss. Ole Miss -- even with its big win over Georgia -- likely would miss out on a playoff spot with a third loss. The Rebels will be heavily favored against both Florida and Mississippi State to finish the season, though, and as their receiving corps gets healthy, Dart and this offense could become a favorite's absolute nightmare in the first round or quarterfinals of the CFP.
8. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana. Things got a little mucky for Indiana on Saturday: The Hoosiers strolled out to a 17-3 lead with a pair of Rourke touchdown passes, but they took their foot off the gas and scored only three second-half points. Rourke went just 3-for-10 for 16 yards with three sacks in the second half; needless to say, that Rourke had best not make the trip to Columbus. The Hoosiers need the one who ranks second nationally in QBR.
Seven starting quarterbacks
It's boring to talk about how important the quarterback position is, but ... the quarterback position is ridiculously important! Maybe only "college softball ace" can compare in importance in team sports. So here are the seven starters for the seven teams with at least a 5% title chance, listed in order from worst QBR rating to best.
7. Quinn Ewers, Texas. Ewers' first three games after returning from an oblique injury were not great. Against Oklahoma, Georgia and Vanderbilt, he never topped even 6.5 yards per dropback, and he threw four interceptions with 10 sacks. Against Florida on Saturday, however, he was 19-for-27 for 333 yards, 5 scores, 1 sack and 9 completions of 20-plus yards. And he spread the ball around to a number of exciting receivers, too. The Horns overwhelmed the Gators with pure options, and Ewers was as good as he has been all year. If that continues, UT is the title favorite.
6. Carson Beck, Georgia. As mentioned above, Beck is slowly sinking into mediocrity this season. He ranks 111th nationally in interception rate -- despite throwing more than 31% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage -- and he's not escaping pressure particularly well. Georgia's ceiling may still be higher than everyone else's, but we've seen it for only about four of 18 halves this season. Now their backs are against the wall.
5. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame. In Leonard's first two starts for Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish averaged just 18.5 points and lost to Northern Illinois. In the seven games since, they've averaged 44 points per game. Starting with Week 3, Leonard ranks seventh in QBR, combining minimal risk (one interception and only six sacks in that span) with great mobility (562 non-sack rushing yards, seventh nationally). The Irish don't produce a lot of big plays, but they're physical and relentless. They may have a couple of tricky games remaining, but they've given us no reason to doubt them since NIU left town.
4. Drew Allar, Penn State. He couldn't quite make the plays he needed as Penn State suffered its eighth consecutive loss to Ohio State, but Allar and the Nittany Lions responded beautifully to the loss, pummeling Washington 35-6. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown and guided four straight touchdown drives to start the game. He's up to 11th in QBR, eighth in yards per dropback and fourth in success rate, and PSU is in pretty good shape for a first-round home game.
3. Will Howard, Ohio State. Last year, Ohio State's Kyle McCord was eighth in QBR but made some mistakes in a frustrating loss to Michigan. This year, Howard is seventh in QBR but made some mistakes in a frustrating loss to Oregon. But that's pretty mean spin. Howard has been excellent since the loss -- he was 21-for-26 for 260 yards and three TDs in a blowout of Purdue on Saturday -- and he'll get more chances to differentiate himself both against Indiana and in the CFP.
2. Jalen Milroe, Alabama. A lot of Alabama's third-and-long failures have come from Milroe's extremely well-defined skill set; he's going to trust his athleticism completely, making lots of huge plays and taking loads of sacks in the process. But Saturday's blowout of LSU was a reminder of what he can do when a defense can't keep him contained. (See the Heisman section below.) Can he play well and win three or four straight playoff games? I'm not sure. But his upside is still stratospheric.
1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon. From a Heisman perspective, Gabriel didn't really take advantage of Cam Ward's Saturday slip-up, completing 23 of 34 passes for just 183 yards against Maryland while alternating between touchdowns and three-and-outs. It was his least effective performance since the first two weeks of the season.
Oregon's receiving corps is very banged up at the moment, and hey, his team didn't need any more from him -- the Ducks eased into halftime up 21-10 and cruised 39-18. Also, he's still first nationally in completion rate (74.1%), third in QBR (86.7) and ninth in success rate (50.7%). His timely scrambles are devastating, and no contender has a signal-caller this battle tested. Assuming the Ducks' pass catchers are healthy in December, Oregon still seems to be trending beautifully in 2024.
The five most surprising results
Here are the five results that were furthest away from their respective SP+ projections. Call them either surprises or bad projections, I guess.
East Carolina 49, Florida Atlantic 14 (projection: ECU by 9.0). ECU's offense has erupted over the past three games, first scoring far more than projected against Army, then, after firing coach Mike Houston, hanging a combined 105 points with 1,075 yards against Temple and FAU. The Pirates are now 5-4 and will be favored to reach bowl eligibility at Tulsa. I'd say interim coach Blake Harrell gets an A-plus thus far.
No. 11 Alabama 42, No. 15 LSU 13 (projection: Bama by 5.6). Alabama's playoff margin for error vanished when the Tide suffered a second loss against Tennessee in Week 8. Since then, they've beaten two ranked teams (Mizzou and LSU) by a combined 76-13. They'll need some help to reach the SEC championship game, but this version of Alabama is a threat to win four straight games and take the national title.
Georgia Tech 28, No. 4 Miami 23 (projection: Miami by 17.4). It was pretty clear that Miami's defense was the fatal flaw that would eventually hold it back. But I still expected the Hurricanes to handle Tech and not give up three touchdown drives of more than 60 yards (including a 17-play drive that ate up 10:45 in the first half). Even with quarterback Haynes King openly hobbling and splitting time with freshman Aaron Philo, the Yellow Jackets found all the answers and pulled a major upset.
Ohio 41, Kent State 0 (projection: Ohio by 19.3). Ohio's last two games are the two best the Bobcats have played all season. Meanwhile, Kent State's odds of finishing 0-12 are now over 50%, per SP+. It'll probably come down to the Golden Flashes' home game against Akron in a week and a half.
Air Force 36, Fresno State 28 (projection: Fresno State by 13.2). Fresno State blew a lead and lost to Hawai'i last week, then did something similar late Saturday: The Bulldogs led 21-20 late in the third quarter, but they committed one turnover and two turnovers on downs, and Air Force went on a 16-0 run to steal the game.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week's Heisman top 10:
1. Jalen Milroe, Alabama (12-for-18 passing for 109 yards, plus 185 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns against LSU).
2. Quinn Ewers, Texas (19-for-27 passing for 333 yards and 5 touchdowns against Florida).
3. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (34 carries for 209 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 12 receiving yards against Nevada).
4. Katin Houser, East Carolina (17-for-22 passing for 343 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 60 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against FAU).
5. Travis Hunter, Colorado (nine catches for 99 yards and a touchdown, plus the requisite defensive duties against Texas Tech).
6. Jihaad Campbell, Alabama (12 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a pass breakup against LSU).
7. Kye Robichaux, Boston College (28 carries for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns against Syracuse).
8. Abdul Carter, Penn State (6 tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 sacks and a forced fumble against Washington).
9. Jared Ivey, Ole Miss (7 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 2 pass breakups against Georgia).
10. Skyler Locklear, UTEP (28-for-33 passing for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 30 rushing yards against Kennesaw State).
No. 1 was pretty obvious this week.
NOT ONE, NOT TWO, NOT THREE BUT FOUR RUSHING TDS FOR JALEN MILROE 😱
— ESPN (@espn) November 10, 2024
ABSOLUTELY TERRORIZING THE LSU DEFENSE 😳 pic.twitter.com/XuXOsCkLLC
LSU did a pretty good job of reining in Bama's running backs and didn't allow a completion of more than 20 yards. But none of it mattered because they couldn't do a single thing to throw Milroe off course. Neither could Florida against Quinn Ewers and Texas. And outside of the quarterback position, Jeanty was the only skill player to top 200 yards from scrimmage, scoring some worthwhile points because of it.
The hardest player to judge this week? Hunter. You don't typically land on this list with just 99 receiving yards, and while he played on defense, he didn't record any stats. But his presence in Colorado's win over Texas Tech was undeniable, and it would have felt awfully strange to not include him.
Honorable mention:
• Clev Lubin, Coastal Carolina (9 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 3 sacks and a forced fumble against Appalachian State).
• Fernando Mendoza, Cal (40-for-56 passing for 385 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 66 non-sack rushing yards against Wake Forest).
• Rylie Mills, Notre Dame (five tackles and three sacks against Florida State).
• Raheim Sanders, South Carolina (15 carries for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 52 receiving yards and a touchdown against Vanderbilt).
• Tre Stewart, Jacksonville State (34 carries for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 15 receiving yards against Louisiana Tech).
• Cam Ward, Miami (25-for-39 passing for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns against Georgia Tech).
Through 11 weeks, here are your points leaders:
1T. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (49)
1T. Cam Ward, Miami (49)
3. Travis Hunter, Colorado (32)
4. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (29)
5. Jalen Milroe, Alabama (28)
6. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (24)
7. Cam Skattebo, Arizona State (20)
8T. Miller Moss, USC (15)
8T. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (15)
10T. Quinn Ewers, Texas (14)
10T. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana (14)
The top four in the horse race and top four in the betting odds are the same four names, but they're in a completely different order. Per ESPN BET, Hunter is now the favorite with +125 odds, while Gabriel (+275) is second, Jeanty (+400) is third and Ward (+850) is fourth. That is a massive overreaction to Miami's loss -- Ward was still rock-solid -- but it does tell us that the Hunter buzz is growing quickly. My vote would still go to either Jeanty or Ward, though.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. No. 9 BYU 22, Utah 21. A rivalry game that nearly upended the Big 12 title race and featured a frantic late field goal drive and a particularly angry athletic director? An easy No. 1.
BYU scored only once on its first six drives against a stellar Utah defense (the Cougars' lone touchdown before the fourth quarter came on a kickoff return), and a burst of offensive competence from the Utes gave them a 21-10 halftime lead. But it was 21-19 when a controversial defensive holding penalty gave BYU extra life on the final drive of the game, and Will Ferrin's 44-yard field goal with three seconds left kept the Cougars' unbeaten record intact.
2-3. Jacksonville State 44, Louisiana Tech 37 (OT) and UTEP 43, Kennesaw State 35 (2OT). Conference USA might not be the best conference in the Group of 5, but it's making its case as the most dramatic. After some wild upsets and plot twists in recent weeks, we got a pair of overtime thrillers Saturday.
Spurred by a win over Liberty, Jax State charged to an early 21-7 lead against Louisiana Tech, but the Bulldogs' iffy offense came alive, and Tech went on a 23-0 run to take a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. But then things got weird. Down 37-31 on the final play of regulation, JSU completed a shockingly easy Hail Mary ... and then missed the game-winning PAT!
Jacksonville State tied the game against Louisiana Tech after this Hail Mary 😳
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 10, 2024
They missed the extra point for the win in regulation, but would go on to win in OT 🔥 pic.twitter.com/m1IwMrJ5KO
After all that, the game went to OT, where the Gamecocks gathered themselves, scored in three plays and forced a four-and-out to win it anyway.
Comparatively speaking, things were downright orderly in El Paso. UTEP took three different leads but couldn't hold on to any of them, and Davis Bryson's 14-yard touchdown tied the game at 28 with 2:43 remaining. UTEP got two looks at a potential game-winning field goal, but Buzz Flabiano missed from 55 yards, and after a KSU personal foul, he missed from 40 too. But like Jacksonville State, the Miners rebounded from disappointment. Skyler Locklear and Kenny Odom connected for TDs in both the first and second overtime possessions, and KSU could score only once.
4. Georgia Tech 28, No. 4 Miami 23. We've gotten so used to Miami coming back and coming through late that it was downright jarring to see the Hurricanes fail when they got the ball back with two minutes left. A hell of a performance from the banged-up Yellow Jackets.
5. FCS: Southern Illinois 37, Youngstown State 33. It's been a disappointing season for SIU. The Salukis were 11th in the preseason FCS poll, but they were 2-7 and down 28-0 late in the first half against YSU on Saturday. It was 30-12 at halftime and 33-18 heading into the fourth quarter, but Jake Curry threw two touchdown passes -- one to Colton Hoag, one to Bradley Clark -- in the final three minutes to cap a mad comeback win and, for a moment at least, save the season.
6. No. 24 Missouri 30, Oklahoma 23. What does the win probability chart look like when a low-grade slog of a game features two touchdowns in the first 56 minutes and four, including two fumble return scores, in the final four minutes? This:
This game went from completely forgettable to the SEC's best of the weekend in a heartbeat.
7-8. Division III: No. 2 Cortland 29, Brockport 28 and No. 3 Mount Union 28, No. 23 Marietta 21. Top-five teams aren't tested very much in D3, but two big names -- defending national champ Cortland and forever-contender Mount Union -- had to go down to the wire to remain unbeaten Saturday. Brockport used a blocked punt score and three touchdown passes from Ben Gocella to take a 28-20 lead in the fourth quarter, and when Cortland scored with 11:08 left, the Red Dragons missed the 2-point conversion. They still trailed 28-26 into the final minute, but a fourth-down conversion set up Mike Baloga's 38-yard game winner with 27 seconds left. And after a 57-yard kick return set up Brockport up at the Cortland 33 in the closing seconds, Nazair Jean-Lubin's interception sealed the deal for the champs.
One state over in Ohio, unbeaten Marietta gave Mount Union a major test at Kehres Stadium, clinging to a 21-14 lead with five minutes left before Tyler Echeverry's 51-yard run tied the game, and backup quarterback TJ Deshields found Tyrell Sanders for a 27-yard score with 32 seconds left.
9. UConn 31, UAB 23. UConn has a chance at its first 10-win FBS season -- the Huskies will have to win out, then win their bowl -- but those chances looked about dead when UAB surged to a 20-3 halftime lead. It was 23-10 with less than nine minutes left, but UConn scored a TD, recovered a fumble, scored again to take the lead, then put the game away with a 48-yard Cam Edwards run with 2:39 left. A resounding comeback.
10. FCS: Elon 40, No. 21 William & Mary 36. After three lead changes in nine minutes, Elon salvaged the game and knocked W&M to 6-4 for the season by prompting a fourth lead change with just four seconds left. Hello, Onuma Dieke.
MATTHEW DOWNING TO ONUMA DIEKE! TOUCHDOWN! #AED #PhoenixRising pic.twitter.com/hxYXd7OaSu
— Elon Football (@ElonFootball) November 9, 2024
Honorable mention:
Arizona State 35, UCF 31
Boston College 37, Syracuse 31
NAIA: No. 15 Baker 20, No. 8 MidAmerica Nazarene 14
NAIA: No. 12 Georgetown (Ky.) 24, No. 24 Campbellsville 17
FCS: Southern 25, Bethune-Cookman 23 (5OT)
UCLA 20, Iowa 17
The midweek playlist
Tuesday: Western Michigan at Bowling Green (7 p.m., ESPN2). There are four 4-1 teams tied atop the MAC standings, with two more hanging around at 3-2. This title race is in no way settled, but this matchup of 4-1 teams could clarify things a good amount.