In the new era of a 12-team College Football Playoff, the 13-member selection committee on Tuesday night showed that dominant play can help overcome a weak schedule (hello, Indiana) and that two-loss Alabama is still in contention -- albeit with very little margin for error.
Ohio State's statement win at Penn State on Saturday catapulted the Buckeyes to No. 2 behind Oregon, a team it could meet again in the Big Ten title game -- unless the Hoosiers have something to say about it.
Below are the top five lessons learned from the first ranking, followed by eight teams outside the top 12 that could play their way in, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.
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What we learned
Byes | First-round matchups
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5
What we learned
1. The SEC and Big Ten own the bulk of the bracket
The SEC and Big Ten have established themselves as the biggest and wealthiest conferences in the country, and the first CFP ranking reaffirmed they are also the deepest when it comes to playoff contenders. With four Big Ten teams (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana) and four SEC teams (Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Alabama), those leagues combined for eight of the top 12 spots. Ohio State and Indiana still have to play each other, as do Georgia and Tennessee, but they will also be losing to a top-10 team. That will help them on Selection Day.
2. Two-loss Alabama spells trouble for the ACC and Big 12's second-best teams
The fact that Alabama is ranked ahead of Iowa State, Kansas State and Colorado is not a good sign for the loser of the Big 12 championship game. Two-loss Texas A&M and LSU also are ranked ahead of the Big 12's second-tier teams, which indicates the Big 12's champion is trending to be its lone representative. The same can be said for the ACC runner-up, but the ACC is in a slightly better position because SMU is right on the bubble at No. 13. That indicates that if Alabama were to lose Saturday to LSU, SMU will still be lurking -- though probably behind two-loss LSU. If SMU runs the table but loses in the ACC championship game, it could be a debate in the committee meeting room, depending on what happens elsewhere with the conference runners-up. But the fact that two-loss SEC teams already have an edge should be concerning to those leagues.
3. Boise State is the clear Group of 5 leader
Because Boise State is ranked No. 12, if that continues through Selection Day, the Broncos would earn the same seed and wouldn't have to displace the committee's 12th-ranked team to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. With Army all the way down at No. 25 -- almost certainly because of its poor schedule strength -- there is a huge gap between the Broncos and the next Group of 5 leader. That could change, though, as the American Athletic Conference gets deeper into the heart of conference play. Two-loss Tulane is still lurking in the AAC, and UNLV -- or Colorado State -- could still win the Mountain West.
4. The state of Indiana is on solid ground
Both No. 8 Indiana and No. 10 Notre Dame were ranked in the top 10, even though there are holes in their respective résumés. The undefeated Hoosiers are having a historic season and are in position to make a run at the Big Ten championship following Saturday's win against Michigan State. But they are ranked No. 103 in strength of schedule. Notre Dame has overcome its home loss to four-loss NIU, but the Fighting Irish don't have much, if any, margin for error.
5. Can No. 20 Colorado really make the playoff?
If Colorado runs the table and Iowa State loses -- which is possible, considering the Cyclones will play K-State in their regular-season finale -- the Buffaloes would face BYU in the Big 12 championship game. If Colorado wins the league, it's in the playoff. That's one of the biggest differences about the 12-team field: The pool of contenders runs as deep as the teams that can still win their conference, and Colorado fits the bill. According to ESPN Analytics, Colorado is favored in each of its remaining games by at least 50%. Colorado and Iowa State are also neck and neck to earn a spot in the Big 12 title game, with the Buffalos at 36.5% and Iowa State at 36.4%.
12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on the CFP top 25.
No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks: Oregon sits at No. 1 of the committee's first rankings after a double-digit road win versus Michigan. The Ducks are here as the projected Big Ten champion. The Ducks could play Ohio State again in the Big Ten championship game (unless Indiana has something to say about it). This could change; but for now, Oregon's head-to-head win should keep it ahead of Ohio State. According to ESPN Analytics, Oregon still has the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (22.1%).
No. 2 seed Georgia Bulldogs: Georgia earns this spot as the projected SEC champion -- even though it had its hands full Saturday against a feisty Florida team playing with its backup quarterback. The Bulldogs' win at Texas on Oct. 19 is still one of the best in the country, and the close loss at Alabama won't hurt Georgia in the committee meeting room. The season-opening victory against Clemson is also good, even though the Tigers just lost to Louisville. Georgia is No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, which means the average playoff team would have just an 11.3% chance of achieving a 7-1 record against the same opponents.
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes earn this seed as the ACC champion and the committee's third-highest-ranked conference champion. Miami currently has the second-best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (21.9%) behind Oregon. With Clemson's loss, though, Miami is now on track to face SMU in the ACC championship game. The Canes still have the best chance (62.2%) to win the ACC -- well above SMU (32.8%) and Clemson (2.3%).
No. 4 seed BYU Cougars: The Cougars earned this spot as the projected Big 12 champion and the committee's fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. BYU had a bye heading into the first rankings, but its best win was Sept. 6 at SMU, which is now in the bubble watch and has a chance to win the ACC. The committee also will like the Cougars' Sept. 21 victory over Kansas State, even though the Wildcats lost a second game Saturday.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Winner plays: No. 4 BYU
No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers
Winner plays: No. 1 Oregon
No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 6 Texas Longhorns
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 2 Georgia
Last two in
No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)
Why they should be worried: Saturday's game against LSU is as close to an elimination game as it gets. There are still 23 teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing the season with two or fewer losses (including Alabama), which is why a three-loss team appears to be a long shot -- at least for now.
ESPN Analytics says: If Alabama loses to LSU, its chances to reach the playoff will drop to 14%.
No. 12 Boise State Broncos (7-1)
Why they should be worried: As long as Boise State is one of the five highest-ranked conference champions on Selection Day, the Broncos will be in the playoff, but they still have to actually reach that goal. If they don't, it could open the door for Army, which is the only other Group of 5 team ranked this week.
ESPN Analytics says: Boise State has the best chance to reach the playoff of any Group of 5 team (69.7%).
First four out
SMU Mustangs (8-1)
Best win: Nov. 2 vs. Pitt, 48-25
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Virginia
If SMU wins the ACC, it's in, which is why the Mustangs are listed here as the first team out. They should run the table and face Miami in the ACC title game. If they lose, though, it's highly unlikely they will earn a spot in the playoff as a two-loss ACC runner-up. There will be better teams with better résumés, even with two losses.
Texas A&M Aggies (7-2)
Best win: Oct. 26 vs. LSU, 38-23
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Texas
If the Aggies run the table and beat rival Texas, they could have a case as a two-loss team, depending on what happens elsewhere. They'd also have a head-to-head win against the Longhorns with an identical two-loss record that could be the difference in an at-large spot. But there is the head-to-head loss against Notre Dame to consider.
LSU Tigers (6-2)
Best win: Oct. 12 vs. Ole Miss, 29-26 (OT)
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama
If LSU loses Saturday, its chances to reach the CFP will drop to 10%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Although LSU has earned some good wins, it would be tough for the committee to justify a three-loss team that might have only one ranked win and has a defeat to five-loss USC.
Ole Miss Rebels (7-2)
Best win: Oct. 5 at South Carolina, 27-3
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia
Ole Miss would almost certainly be eliminated with a loss to Georgia because the committee would have issues with a schedule that includes a perplexing home loss to Kentucky and wins against Middle Tennessee (3-6), Wake Forest (4-4), Georgia Southern (6-3) and FCS team Furman (2-6).
Next four out
Iowa State Cyclones (7-1)
Best win: Sept. 7 at Iowa, 20-19
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Kansas State
According to ESPN Analytics, Iowa State still has the second-best chance to win the Big 12 behind BYU (21.9%), but it's in a neck-and-neck race with Colorado to actually get into the league title game. If Iowa State doesn't win the Big 12, it's going to be a long-shot two-loss team, as its résumé is lacking a statement win.
Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1)
Best win: Oct. 24 vs. Syracuse, 41-13
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 vs. Clemson
According to ESPN Analytics, Pitt has less than a 50% chance to beat both Clemson and Louisville.
Kansas State Wildcats (7-2)
Best win: Oct. 12 at Colorado, 31-28
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Iowa State
As a two-loss team, K-State's best chance to reach the CFP is by winning the Big 12, and ESPN Analytics gives the Wildcats a 13% chance to do that, behind BYU, Iowa State and Colorado.
Colorado Buffaloes (6-2)
Best win: Oct. 19 at Arizona, 34-7
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Texas Tech
Colorado is here because it can win the Big 12, but it still needs to win out and get some help for that to happen. According to ESPN Research, if Colorado and Iowa State each win out and tie for second, Colorado needs Texas Tech to finish ahead of Kansas State in the standings, based on the Big 12's tiebreaker rule.
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (7-1), Mountain West
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24
Why they're here: The Broncos have the best combination of eye test and résumé, which is why they have separated from this pack and have been included in the projected top-12 rankings. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Boise State has a 71% chance to make the playoff.
2. Army Black Knights (8-0), American Athletic
Best win: Oct. 19 vs. East Carolina, 45-28
Why they're here: Army ranks No. 132 in opponents' winning percentage (.333), which means it probably has to finish undefeated, win the AAC and hope that Boise State stumbles to have any legitimate shot at the playoff.
3. Tulane Green Wave (7-2), American Athletic
Best win: Sept. 21 at Louisiana, 41-33
Why they're here: The Green Wave's two losses were to nonconference opponents Oklahoma and K-State, so they can win the AAC and have a shot if Boise State loses. The 41-33 triumph at Louisiana is also a critical head-to-head win, as the Sun Belt Conference's Ragin' Cajuns are now listed below.
4. UNLV Rebels (6-2), Mountain West
Best win: Oct. 19 at Oregon State, 33-25
Why they're here: The Rebels lost on a Friday night to Syracuse (in overtime) and again on a Friday night to Boise State three weeks later. It's still possible UNLV will play Boise State in the conference championship game, which would give the Rebels a much-needed statement win to go with a league title. But Colorado State also could play its way into the Mountain West conference championship game. UNLV currently has a 52.5% chance to reach the title game, followed by Colorado State at 43.6%.
5. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (7-1), Sun Belt
Best win: Sept. 28 at Wake Forest, 41-38
Why they're here: The Ragin' Cajuns are leading the Sun Belt race, and with only one loss, they're at least in consideration. The problem is the head-to-head loss to Tulane, but that's only one tiebreaker, and the committee might not lean on it because Louisiana has a better record. Still, Louisiana needs some help to be taken more seriously in the conversation.