The end of October is a fitting time for the speculation of the college coaching carousel to meet reality.
All summer, we hear about jobs that are expected to open. Some years, they fall quickly. Think Nebraska in early September 2022. Some years, the expected never becomes reality, as Jim Harbaugh was the face of college football's hot seat in 2021 after Michigan reengineered his contract to make it easier to fire him. Then, of course, Michigan rattled off three straight Big Ten titles and one national championship.
Usually by the end of October, there's some clarity on which way schools will go. For administrators, they spend months quietly preparing for moves they hope they don't need to make. For the multimillion-dollar industry that has evolved around the coaching job market, the jockeying for clients and searches has been happening for months.
So how did summer projections meet fall realities? We explore the hot jobs here and how things could shake out in the Group of 5, which projects to be more active than the power leagues.
In Part 1 of midseason carousel watch, we looked at how some market forces could portend a quieter year. That lines up with the jobs that were the speculative focus this year.
Baylor
An exit for Dave Aranda still looms as a possibility, but there's a burgeoning optimism for his return in 2025 after a 59-35 blowout win over Texas Tech and a sound double-digit win over Oklahoma State last week. Baylor (4-4, 2-3) also has three losses in league play to schools that are 13-1 in the Big 12.
The cost for firing Aranda isn't insignificant, as sources told ESPN it would be nearly $17 million. That comes at a time when Baylor, like all schools, is maneuvering itself to be competitive with revenue sharing that's expected to happen in 2025.
Aranda is now 13-20 since guiding what some consider the best season in Baylor history -- winning the Big 12 and Sugar Bowl in 2021. Aranda has a bit of the program-building sensibilities of Virginia basketball coach Tony Bennett, which has led to a deliberate adaptation to the realities of modern college football.
Baylor has a revamped staff and is up to No. 32 in the current ESPN recruiting class rankings after finishing No. 72 last year. Can Aranda finish with a flourish? There's no game remaining -- TCU, at West Virginia, at Houston and Kansas -- that would be considered a sure-fire win or loss. Baylor should be favored in three of the four games.
The other cause for optimism is that Baylor appears to have found an answer at quarterback in redshirt junior Sawyer Robertson, a Lubbock native who has meshed well with new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital. Robertson has one more year of eligibility, which moving forward would give Baylor an offensive identity it has lacked in recent years.
If this is a close decision, remember that Baylor administrators and athletic officials value Aranda tremendously as a person. He has been an asset to the institution at large.
Florida
Things have improved at Florida since the blowout home losses to Texas A&M and Miami. This could be a completely different conversation if they'd found a way to win in overtime at Tennessee, but Billy Napier's future remains squarely in flux.
Florida (4-3) isn't terrible, but they aren't terribly close to the program's biggest goals -- winning the SEC and competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff -- as Napier's three losses are all to playoff contenders.
Napier's best victories are arguably home wins over Utah in 2022 and Tennessee last season, and he needs to prove he can beat top teams. Those opportunities loom.
The expectation remains a change is coming in Gainesville, but there's still an opportunity for Napier to finish with a flourish and reverse that notion. That starts with a game against No. 2 Georgia this weekend.
It's a credit to Napier the team has stayed locked in amid the noise, and the potential for quarterback DJ Lagway to show glimpses of what the program could be offer some seeds of hope.
Florida still finishes with one of the sport's most brutal stretch this season: No. 2 Georgia (neutral site), at No. 6 Texas, No. 16 LSU and No. 19 Ole Miss. That stretch is a pinch more manageable than it looked on paper this summer, as the season-ending trip to Florida State at the end of November seems much easier.
The Florida coaching wish list is also fraught with potential College Football Playoff complications in terms of timing. Lane Kiffin still has an outside chance to guide Ole Miss there, James Franklin has Penn State on a playoff run and other potential candidates such as Matt Campbell at Iowa State and Chris Klieman at Kansas State are in the conversation.
The buyout would be nearly $26.7 million at the end of the regular season, which would be the second largest in college football history. Florida can do it, but it's significant.
Arkansas
The Bobby Petrino offensive coordinator experiment has worked for coach Sam Pittman, who brought in the veteran playcaller to move the ball and improve the program. That has happened, and there has been little drama otherwise in Petrino's awkward homecoming.
Arkansas is 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the SEC, and it claims wins over Tennessee and at Auburn. The speculation around Pittman has quieted, as has the chatter about the strangest buyout in college football.
If fired, Pittman is owed more than $12 million if he's above .500 since 2021. That number drops to a little more than $8 million if his record is below .500. He's now 25-21, which makes him secure this year from a higher buyout perspective.
Arkansas has one game left on the schedule in which it's heavily favored, a home game against Louisiana Tech. That means a return next year is close to guaranteed for Pittman, who needs only one win in the last four games for his team to be bowl eligible.
Pittman was adamant this summer that the program was in a much better place than when he took it over. That has played out this season.
Utah
There was no heat on Kyle Whittingham's seat heading into the season. But an offseason formalization of defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley as the coach-in-waiting put the Utah job in the conversation.
The Utes are 1-4 in Big 12 play, a stunning downturn for the preseason favorites. Another injury-plagued season for quarterback Cam Rising undercut much of Utah's grand ambitions.
Will Whittingham sputter off into retirement? Or will he want to write a final chapter that's more reflective of his Hall of Fame career. Someone is going to have to hire a new offensive coordinator, as Andy Ludwig's unceremonious departure leaves a question of the program's offensive identity moving forward.
OPEN JOBS
East Carolina: The Pirates job is one of five in the Group of 5 that is either open or with an interim, three of which have come from firings since the season started. Of those, this is the best one. ECU has a strong fan base, decent resources and is positioned to potentially win the American Athletic Conference, which would mean a College Football Playoff bid in most years. Look for this to be the top Group of 5 job that could lure a strong sitting head coach. Athletic director Jon Gilbert has the experience and time at places such as Alabama and Tennessee to fish from a wide pond.
Rice: Since Rice won the Conference USA championship in 2013, it has had only one winning season. The job is even tougher in the AAC, and the challenge for athletic director Tommy McClelland will be to find a formula that makes Rice competitive in its new league. Head coaching experience and refined methodology on offense will be a premium. Rice football has strong presidential support and big ambitions, and the search will be an interesting test of what that can bring to the school.
Southern Miss: There's a strong tradition, proud fan base and good financial resources, as the school has won five league titles and there's a desire to win the Sun Belt. Expect athletic director Jeremy McClain to conduct a wide search, as there will be interest from all walks of football -- hot coordinators, super recruiters, sitting head coaches and retreads.
Utah State: Interim coach Nate Dreiling has been snakebit. New quarterback Spencer Petras has battled injuries all year, which made for a tough start. Star receiver Jalen Royals, one of the top Group of 5 NFL prospects, is out for the season. At 2-6, Dreiling is unlikely to be retained full time, barring a stirring finish. Athletic director Diana Sabau has experience in the Big Ten to lean on in a search.
Fresno State: Tim Skipper is a former star linebacker, two-time captain and a longtime valued assistant coach in the program. As interim coach, he has Fresno State 5-3 on the season and 3-1 in conference play. That's a strong audition for the job, including trailing Michigan by six points with 10 minutes remaining in the opener. A decision will be made by new athletic director Garrett Klassy, who arrived in June. There's momentum to keep Skipper, and he can cement that notion with a strong finish.
ALL EYES ON...
AAC
UAB: The Blazers are on a six-game losing streak, but the reality for UAB potentially moving on from Trent Dilfer is that he's only in his second year and the buyout would be nearly $4 million. That's a big tab for an AAC school, and Dilfer is expected to get more time.
Temple: Stan Drayton is looking at his third straight losing season, sitting at 2-6 (8-24 overall). Drayton is on his first contract, but the buyout isn't prohibitive. That makes a potential exit possible but not inevitable. The Owls did beat Tulsa soundly for an AAC win and played well in a game they gave away to UConn at the goal line.
Tulsa: A new athletic director and a 1-3 league record in league play aren't a great combination for Kevin Wilson, who is 3-5 this season. He is coming off one of the season's most miraculous wins over UTSA last week. (Tulsa trailed 35-7 at halftime.) Two years isn't much time, but there's pressure to show signs of progress for Tulsa in league play.
CONFERENCE USA
Louisiana Tech: Improvement was needed after Sonny Cumbie's back-to-back 3-9 seasons. Louisiana Tech is 3-5, with the five losses by a combined 29 points. The buyout is $1.4 million, which is a big dent for a Conference USA school. A strong finish could preserve Cumbie's job, as he's well-liked in the community and by the administration.
Kennesaw State: Transition from the FCS to FBS hasn't been easy for the Owls, as they are 1-7 and 1-3 in league play. (The lone win was a stunning upset of Liberty.) Brian Bohannon started the program from scratch and was a wildly successful FCS coach, as he entered this season 71-30 overall and 30-12 in league play.
MAC
Kent State: At 0-8 overall and 0-4 in MAC play, it's reasonable to speculate about the future of Kenni Burns. But the general expectation at Kent is that he'll be back for a third season. Kent still plays the country's most brutal nonconference schedule, as it faced Pitt, Penn State and Tennessee this season.
Akron: There's similar support at Akron for Joe Moorhead, even though he's 2-6 this season and 6-26 overall in year three. The administration there realizes it needs to support Moorhead more to be successful, and is working toward that with a plan for increased NIL for football. (Akron's basketball NIL is considered sizable in the MAC.) There's some momentum with a big home upset over Eastern Michigan last week.
Ball State: There have been some embers of optimism the past three games for Ball State, with wins over Kent and Northern Illinois, and a strong performance in a 10-point loss at Vanderbilt. But Mike Neu's record is 40-61 over nine years and there's only one winning season on the books. A strong finish is needed here.
SUN BELT
Marshall: Charles Huff is 4-3 this season and 2-1 in the league, but he's also in the final year of his contract. It's hard to overstate how rare that is for a generally successful coach. Something has to give here, either an extension, a new job or a departure. His record sits at 26-20.
Appalachian State: Shawn Clark won five straight games last season to change the program's trajectory and reach the Sun Belt title game. He's just 1-3 in league play this season, and another strong finish would significantly help his cause. After Dec. 1, his buyout drops to $500,000 from $1 million.