Alabama, which had just beaten Georgia, lost to Vanderbilt. Tennessee, which had looked mostly invincible to start the season, lost to Arkansas. James Madison, the best-looking of the unbeaten mid-majors, fell to Louisiana-Monroe. Missouri no-showed in College Station, Texas. Miami trailed by 25. Hell, Ohio State led Iowa by only 7 at halftime.
Each week in this space we throw an unbeatens party, and for a while on Saturday it looked like everyone wanted to leave early. Ohio State finally hit the accelerator, and Miami charged back to win late in Berkeley, but our roster of unbeaten FBS teams plummeted from 19 to 12 in a single week. And now, each of the nine remaining power-conference teams on the list faces a major test in the next two weeks. We could lose Texas when Georgia comes to town in Week 8. We will lose either Ohio State or Oregon this coming Saturday. The party's thinning out, and it's not even mid-October yet.
For each of our 12 remaining teams, let's look at their midseason MVP, the player most responsible for their presence on this list. And for those actually interested in hanging out at the party a bit longer, let's look at the most important players for achieving that goal.
1. Texas Longhorns (5-0)
Last week's ranking: first
SP+ and FPI rankings: first and first
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 105th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 24.0%
What the Longhorns did in Week 6: The Horns were off Saturday, and with everything else that was happening in the SEC, that was a very good thing.
Midseason MVP: S Andrew Mukuba. You could make a case for putting quarterback Arch Manning here -- most teams would suffer while losing their starting quarterback for most of three games, but Manning assured no drop-off whatsoever while Quinn Ewers was out. But instead we're going to give a nod to the defense. The Horns haven't faced a top-60 offense (and have faced just one top-70 team) per SP+, but the numbers still leap off the page: They're first in points allowed per possession, second in yards allowed per play, eighth in three-and-out rate and, perhaps most noteworthy, first in yards allowed per dropback.
The competition will ramp up soon enough, but the secondary has been virtually note perfect. Mukuba, a Clemson transfer, has come up particularly big, picking off one pass (at Michigan), breaking up three more and allowing just 6-for-12 passing for 39 yards as primary coverage guy. This is a pretty new secondary -- three starting DBs left, and Mukuba and former backups Malik Muhammad and Jaylon Guilbeau have had to step in -- and it's absolutely shining.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: QB Quinn Ewers. Obviously. Ewers should return to action against Oklahoma -- a team he has torched twice in burnt orange -- this weekend, and assuming things go according to plan, it'll be time to face off against Carson Beck and Georgia the week after. In fact, six of the Longhorns' last seven opponents rank in the SP+ top 30. They haven't needed Ewers yet, but they will.
Next test (next game with SP+ win probability at 75% or lower): Week 8 vs. Georgia
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)
Last week's ranking: fourth
SP+ and FPI rankings: second and second
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 104th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 21.0%
What the Buckeyes did in Week 6: def. Iowa 35-7. The Buckeyes forced three consecutive turnovers in the second half, got three touchdown catches from Emeka Egbuka (plus the customary one-hander from Jeremiah Smith) and cruised after a bumpy start.
Midseason MVP: DE Jack Sawyer. As with basically every team on this list, the harder work is yet to come: Five of the next seven opponents are in the SP+ top 30. But the Buckeyes' defensive stats are nearly perfect. They're tied with Texas for first in points allowed per possession, and they've controlled both the number and the magnitude of an opponent's successful plays.
At the heart of this unit is a defensive front that has been as dominant as expected. Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau and Ty Hamilton have all been fantastic, but Sawyer has been just about the best pass rusher in the country. He entered the Iowa game with 15 pass pressures and a 25.8% pressure rate (anything over about 15% is great), and he had 1.5 sacks against the Hawkeyes.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: QB Will Howard. I'm going to try not to pick the QB as the most important player for every one of these teams -- though it would be pretty justifiable to do so -- but it's impossible to pick anyone else for Ohio State. Kyle McCord finished 2023 seventh in Total QBR, and it wasn't good enough to clear the bar the Buckeyes set. Howard transferred in and has been perfectly fine, but he's 11th in Total QBR. Can he raise his game the way this team expects in upcoming road trips to Oregon and Penn State?
Next test: Week 7 at Oregon
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
Last week's ranking: fifth
SP+ and FPI rankings: sixth and ninth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 93rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 13.6%
What the Nittany Lions did in Week 6: def. UCLA 27-11. In a particularly slow-tempo game, the Nittany Lions punted on their first two possessions but scored on five of their next six and didn't give up a touchdown until the final minute of the game.
Midseason MVP: QB Drew Allar. Wherever you set the bar for improvement in 2024, Allar is clearing it. He produced a 60% completion rate and averaged 11.3 yards per completion and 6.4 yards per dropback last season; he's at 71%, 15.1 and 9.6, respectively, this fall. He's fifth in Total QBR, ahead of some of the current Heisman betting favorites, and he has carved out an excellent partnership with both offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and tight end Tyler Warren (23 catches, 289 yards, 3 TDs).
Allar has been awesome, and in terms of points scored and allowed per drive, PSU's offense ranks almost as highly (13th) as its forever-awesome defense does (ninth).
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: WR Harrison Wallace III. Allar has Warren, and he should continue to have a solid run game to lean on, even though Kaytron Allen had a merely decent game against UCLA (and Nicholas Singleton was out with injury). But he's going to have some huge third-down pass attempts in his future if the Nittany Lions continue to threaten for spots in both the Big Ten championship game and College Football Playoff. And on third downs thus far, Wallace, his most frequent third-down target, has caught three of six balls for 16 yards. Wallace has been good overall, with 230 receiving yards and two scores, but he needs to provide more danger in key situations.
Next test: Week 7 at USC
4. Miami Hurricanes (6-0)
Last week's ranking: sixth
SP+ and FPI rankings: ninth and 10th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 73rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 27.4%
What the Hurricanes did in Week 6: def. Cal 39-38. For the second straight week, the Hurricanes trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter -- this time by 20 points with 11 minutes left -- but Cam Ward & Co. scored TDs on their last four drives, the last one coming with 25 seconds left to win.
Midseason MVP: QB Cam Ward. Could it be anyone else? Ward is third nationally in Total QBR and first in passing yards and touchdowns. Miami hasn't ranked higher than 24th in offensive SP+ since 2009 but currently ranks fourth, leading the nation in both yards per play (8.2) and percentage of plays gaining 20-plus yards (12.3%). Projected over 14 games, Ward is on pace for 5,100 passing yards and 47 touchdowns; those are Heisman numbers, especially as long as the Hurricanes remain in the CFP and ACC title hunts.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: LB Francisco Mauigoa. That the Hurricanes scored 38 and 39 points, respectively, in the past two weeks but almost lost both games certainly hints at why they almost lost. Against Virginia Tech and Cal offenses that hadn't been particularly explosive this season, the Hurricanes allowed 20-plus yards on 11.3% of snaps, 124th nationally in that time period. They're missing tackles, and they're giving up big run plays and huge pass plays; they're playing a bit too recklessly, in other words, and that starts with their best playmaker. Mauigoa leads the team in both tackles (32) and havoc plays* (10), but he also has missed on 22% of his tackle attempts, far too many for an inside linebacker. Both Mauigoa and Miami must clean things up quickly to remain unbeaten.
(* Havoc plays: tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups and forced fumbles)
Next test: Week 8 at Louisville
5. Oregon Ducks (5-0)
Last week's ranking: seventh
SP+ and FPI rankings: seventh and eighth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 96th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 15.2%
What the Ducks did in Week 6: def. Michigan State 31-10. Two early red zone interceptions from Dillon Gabriel kept things closer than expected for a while -- and, like Penn State-UCLA, this game was at a turtle's pace (welcome to the Big Ten, I guess) -- but the Ducks were never in danger.
Midseason MVP: DE Jordan Burch. Through five games, the Oregon offense has underachieved versus SP+ projections four times, but the defense has allowed more than 14 points just once. The pass defense has been just about perfect, starting with the pass rushers up front. Burch, Derrick Harmon and Matayo Uiagalelei have combined for 34 pressures and 11.5 sacks, with Burch leading the way at 15 and five. Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi lines him up everywhere -- he gets snaps at tackle, end and standup OLB -- and he makes plays everywhere.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: WR Tez Johnson. Even with Friday night's picks, Gabriel has mostly done what we expect from him: He's completing 78% of his (mostly short) passes, and he's mostly avoiding mistakes. The Ducks are as efficient as you could hope, but they aren't making many big plays.
Wideouts Traeshon Holden and Terrance Ferguson have combined for nine catches of 20-plus yards, but No. 1 target Johnson has yet to get rolling. He has caught 43 passes, but 20 have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, he's averaging only 9.2 yards per catch, and his drop rate (7.5%) is higher than it should be. Johnson proved last year that he has another gear, but he needs to show it, starting Saturday against Ohio State.
Next test: Week 7 vs. Ohio State
6. Indiana Hoosiers (6-0)
Last week's ranking: ninth
SP+ and FPI rankings: 17th and 14th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 112th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.5%
What the Hoosiers did in Week 6: def. Northwestern 41-24. Leading by 7 after three quarters, the Hoosiers scored twice in the first four minutes of the fourth, then put things away with Kurtis Rourke's third TD pass of the day.
Midseason MVP: QB Kurtis Rourke. We knew Rourke's ceiling was pretty high after what he produced at Ohio in 2022 -- 3,256 passing yards, 25 TDs, 4 interceptions -- but you never know how a skill set will translate when jumping to a higher level. Rourke's has translated as well as you'll ever see. He's second in Total QBR, he has completed 74% of his passes at 14.9 yards per completion, and he has Indiana (!) at 6-0 (!!) for the first time since 1967 (!!!).
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: CB D'Angelo Ponds. Indiana went a combined 9-27 from 2021 to 2023, and now SP+ gives the Hoosiers an 89% chance of finishing 9-3 or better this season. Curt Cignetti and his merry band of transfers are pulling off a miracle, but if IU is to remain in the CFP race -- and anyone who hasn't yet trailed in a game is in the CFP race -- the pass defense must hold up.
Indiana ranks eighth in yards allowed per dropback because of solid big-play prevention and a good pressure-without-blitzes pass rush. But despite having played only one team with an offensive SP+ ranking higher than 93rd (Maryland is 61st), the Hoosiers rank just 71st in completion rate allowed. At the least, Washington and (obviously) Ohio State will severely test this secondary -- especially Ponds, its most frequently targeted DB thus far -- and we don't know for sure that it will pass those tests.
Next test: Week 8 vs. Nebraska
7. Iowa State Cyclones (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 10th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 21st and 19th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 89th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.1%
What the Cyclones did in Week 6: def. Baylor 43-21. The Cyclones trailed 14-3 early in the second quarter, then laid the hammer down with big plays. Rocco Becht produced 277 passing yards with just 16 completions, and Jaylon Jackson and Carson Hansen combined for 204 rushing yards in 30 carries.
Midseason MVP: CB Jontez Williams. Jon Heacock's defense, as always, remains the star in Ames. ISU ranks fifth in points allowed per drive, combining a mediocre run defense with just about the best pass defense in the sport. The Cyclones almost never blitz but still rank fifth in yards allowed per dropback, nailing both efficiency and explosiveness.
Williams has been particularly dominant. The sophomore ranks first on the team in havoc plays (seven), and heading into Saturday he had allowed just 2-for-12 passing for 12 yards and a 0.1 QBR. His third-quarter interception against Baylor basically set up the game's knockout blow.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: RB Jaylon Jackson. This could be any of the Cyclones' three RBs (Jackson, Hansen or Abu Sama III), really. Iowa State plays like a Big Ten team -- slow pace, lots of rushing on standard downs -- but the run game itself has been hit-or-miss. The Cyclones are 93rd in rushing success rate and 77th in yards per successful rush, and while the passing game has bailed them out (and the run game indeed came up big against Baylor), that's a dangerous recipe against good teams. ISU has beaten only one team ranked higher than 60th in SP+, and each of the next seven opponents clears that bar. As things get tougher, the rushing identity the Cyclones clearly crave must produce.
Next test: Week 7 at West Virginia
8. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 12th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 32nd and 32nd
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 81st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Panthers did in Week 6: def. North Carolina 34-24. With the game tied at 24-24 heading into the fourth quarter, Pitt did what Pitt does: take control late. A field goal and a seven-minute touchdown drive allowed the Panthers to pull away.
Midseason MVP: QB Eli Holstein. Pitt has played three SP+ top-50 opponents -- granted, they were all between 37th and 50th -- and has won all three games by a combined 15 points. That doesn't automatically scream "ELITE!", nor does Holstein's overall stat line. But while he's only 56th in Total QBR, he has been virtually perfect in the fourth quarter: 22-for-29 for 362 yards and two touchdowns, plus 87 non-sack rushing yards and another score. The Panthers have already won three tight games, and SP+ projects all of their last seven games within 8.5 points. The close-game drama has just begun, but that's just more opportunities for Holstein to create his legend, right?
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: CB Ryland Gandy. Pitt's defense has already played a couple of top-30 offenses (Cincinnati and West Virginia), but the fact that the Panthers rank 75th in points allowed per drive is still a major concern. Their run defense is strong, but they're suffering a lot of breakdowns on pass plays; they blitz all the time but rank just 58th in sack rate, and the secondary has suffered quite a few big gashes. The risk-reward ratio is off, and it's putting too much pressure on Gandy and the back line. Gandy had allowed four completions of 20-plus yards heading into Saturday's game, and there are plenty of good offenses (Clemson, Louisville, among others) still to come on the schedule.
Next test: Week 7 vs. California
9. BYU Cougars (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 11th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 35th and 38th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 43rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.6%
What the Cougars did in Week 6: The Cougars were off after their Week 5 win at Baylor. With two straight home games coming up, they'll go nearly a month between road trips.
Midseason MVP: NB Jakob Robinson. After years of regression, the BYU defense has returned in full force. The Cougars are 16th in points allowed per drive, thanks mainly to an awesome and aggressive pass defense. Robinson has been the most awesome and aggressive of them all: He's first on the team in havoc plays (nine) and passes defended (four), and he also has made three tackles for loss and two run stops while alternating between the cornerback and slot corner positions. Second-year defensive coordinator Jay Hill has exactly what he needs, and it starts with this fifth-year senior.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: QB Jake Retzlaff. Even with the defense handing the offense quite a few short fields, the Cougars still rank just 72nd in points per drive. The passing game is producing plenty of big plays through Chase Roberts and the all-or-nothing Darius Lassiter, but with a dismal run game, Retzlaff is having to take on a considerable load. Not including sacks, he has nearly twice as many rushing yards (195) as any BYU running back, and since the Cougars rank 87th in success rate on standard downs (first downs, second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more), he's having to make a lot of plays on second- or third-and-long. The schedule could ease up a bit -- the Cougars have played three top-50 defenses (per SP+) but have only one left on the schedule -- but Retzlaff will have to keep coming up big in occasionally tricky situations.
Next test: Week 7 vs. Arizona
10. Army Black Knights (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 18th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 69th and 59th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 134th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.3%
What the Black Knights did in Week 6: def. Tulsa 49-7. The Black Knights made it six wins by an average score of 39-10 with this easy cruise. It was 7-7 after one quarter, but short Bryson Daily scores and long Kanye Udoh scores turned it into a laugher.
Kanye Udoh takes off again for a 63-yard Army TD
Midseason MVP: QB Bryson Daily. Both Army and Navy have tweaked their respective option attacks, and the Black Knights' version is calibrated perfectly: They're first in points per drive (4.3), second in success rate (58.0%), first in avoiding plays that gain zero or fewer yards (12.5%), third in red zone touchdown rate (90.0%) and first in fewest turnovers (one). With that set of stats, you have to give massive credit to the guy running the show. Projected over 14 games, Daily is on pace for 1,600 non-sack rushing yards, 1,000 passing yards and 40-something total touchdowns. The senior is 13th in Total QBR, and Army's offense is barely stoppable.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: CB Jaydan Mayes. The Army defense faces the fewest drives in the country because of the ball-control offense, and it has been good at forcing mistakes from impatient opponents. But the Black Knights are extremely bend-don't-break against the pass, and with North Texas and Notre Dame on the horizon, someone in the secondary is probably going to have to make some big plays. Mayes, a sophomore from Fairfield, Ohio, seems the most likely to do so. He leads the team with two picks and a breakup, and he had allowed a 37.3 QBR heading into Saturday's game.
Next test: Week 11 at North Texas
11. Navy Midshipmen (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 17th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 70th and 69th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 131st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9%
What the Midshipmen did in Week 6: def. Air Force 34-7.
Midseason MVP: QB Blake Horvath. Navy's offensive averages aren't quite as perfect as Army's -- the Midshipmen are fourth in points per drive, thanks primarily to a smattering of three-and-outs here and there -- but the next time they fail to score a touchdown in the red zone will be the first this season. Once they get moving, they don't stop. As strong as Daily's numbers are, Horvath is in a special rhythm: He remains first in Total QBR, and projected over 14 games he's on pace for 2,100 passing yards, 1,600 non-sack rushing yards and 47 total touchdowns. Against an Air Force team that had limited them to 6.5 points per game over the past four seasons, the Midshipmen rolled up 463 yards and 34 points Saturday. And while both Army and Navy get opportunities to take down Notre Dame this season, Horvath and Navy get the first chance, which might come in handy.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: LB Colin Ramos. Navy's defensive averages aren't as good as Army's, primarily because of a 56-44 track meet win over Memphis a few weeks ago. The Midshipmen are excellent once opponents are behind schedule (13th in passing downs success rate), but they can't force anyone off-schedule (107th in standard downs success rate) and could use a bit more disruption overall. That's most likely to come from Ramos, a senior from New Jersey who has lined up everywhere from outside linebacker to safety and leads the team in tackles for loss (4.5) and tackles against both run (27) and pass (18).
Next test: Week 9 vs. Notre Dame
12. Liberty Flames (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 19th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 64th and 96th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 133rd
Odds of reaching 11-0, per SP+: 30.9%
What the Flames did in Week 6: The Flames were off, which, combined with Week 5's canceled game with Appalachian State, means they'll have gone 17 days without playing when they take the field against Florida International on Tuesday night.
Midseason MVP: OLB TJ Bush Jr. Liberty has faced just one team with a defensive SP+ ranking higher than 122nd and none with an offensive SP+ ranking higher than 112th. But the Flames' defense, an albatross at times last season, has still hinted at progress, ranking 19th in passing success rate allowed, 10th in pressure rate and 20th in havoc rate. Bush has been at the center of that: He leads the team in sacks (4.5), pressures (15) and overall havoc plays (9). Considering there isn't a single top-80 offense on Liberty's schedule, we can probably assume Bush & Co. will continue to make a solid number of stops.
Most important player for remaining unbeaten: QB Kaidon Salter. The Flames once again have just about the weakest schedule in the country -- Army's and Navy's have been just as weak, but they both have harder games on the horizon (including, perhaps, two against each other), and Liberty won't play a team ranked higher than 88th in SP+ all season.
That probably eliminates the Flames from playoff contention, but their main hope might come from a run of absolute blowouts. That will require Salter to shift into another gear. He has been fine so far -- 237 passing yards per game at 8.2 yards per dropback, plus 155 non-sack rushing yards -- but he flashed higher upside last season. The Flames are averaging 33.5 points per game, but it's time to start scoring 50-plus.
Next test: Week 14 at Sam Houston