College football Week 6 buzz: Which one-loss team is most likely to make the CFP?

The Week 6 slate is the appetizer before this season's first major feast of elite matchups arrives Oct. 12, but there will still be plenty to eat this weekend (we're all still pretty full from that Georgia-Alabama game anyway).

In Seattle, Michigan and Washington will meet with dramatically different rosters than the ones that played for a national championship Jan. 8. In College Station, Missouri takes its perfect record on the road for the first time to face an improving Texas A&M squad. In Columbus, Ohio State's star-studded offense faces its first major test in an Iowa defense that hasn't been quite as stifling this season but still allows only 13.8 points per game. There are other intriguing matchups, like SMU-Louisville, Ole Miss-South Carolina, Rutgers-Nebraska and UNLV aiming for its third win against a Power 4 opponent, as it hosts Syracuse on Friday night.

Also, "College GameDay" heads to Adam's hometown of Berkeley, California, for the very first time as Miami, fortunate to still be undefeated, enters the Calgorithm.

Beyond the games, interesting subplots are developing around paths to the expanded College Football Playoff, impact freshmen and down-the-road matchups.

As always, college football insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg have been talking to sources throughout the week to get their reactions to what unfolded, and the storylines to watch in Week 6.

Jump to a section:
Georgia-Alabama
One-loss CFP contenders
Hardest undefeated road
Top true freshman
Can Army or Navy reach the CFP?
Emptying the notebook

Is what Alabama did to Georgia repeatable (and should Bulldogs fans be worried)?

Rittenberg: Alabama's ability to generate big plays with quarterback Jalen Milroe has clearly remained through the coaching change and should continue the rest of the season. Georgia has to be concerned about facing the Tide again, but the Bulldogs should benefit from having seen the offensive scheme that Kalen DeBoer popularized at Washington before coming to Alabama. "The biggest thing was Georgia hadn't played the system that Alabama has before, either, so it took them a half to get adjusted to everything," an SEC defensive assistant told me. "Once they got adjusted and they kept their edges squared away, then it was then it was a game. Unfortunately, they were [already] behind by 30." If not for Ryan Williams' iconic touchdown, Georgia's in-game adjustments would have been the story coming out of Tuscaloosa.

The real answers about Georgia's defense will come between Oct. 19 and Nov. 16, when the Bulldogs face No. 2 Texas, No. 12 Ole Miss and No. 4 Tennessee -- three of the nation's top 11 scoring offenses (Tennessee is No. 1). Georgia's lone concern on defense entering the season was its inexperience at cornerback, which Alabama attacked last week, and Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee will surely do the same. "The front is a lot older, and played a ton of more snaps," a Georgia source said. "The back end now is the young guys."

Dinich: It's most certainly repeatable because Alabama is only going to keep getting better. Remember, DeBoer is The Guy After Nick Saban. They are in the midst of one of the most historic coaching changes the sport has seen.

"We'd love to have about eight preseason games to get acclimated as a program," DeBoer told me. "You don't get that option. You play who's on your schedule, and right now I feel good about where we're at. There's things we're doing now we can go to and just like any season things that will continue to develop and grow. Especially your first year. You evolve mentally, you evolve physically. Your schemes, the way we bring it all together. It revolves around your identity. We understand who we are, but the nuances that go along with that might change as the season goes on."

We're not even halfway through the season yet, and right now, Alabama has a 91.3% chance to reach the playoff --second only to Texas by a hair (92.1%). Georgia fans don't need to worry about a rematch with Bama yet --but they should be concerned about their team's Oct. 19 trip to Austin.

Which one-loss team at the end of September has the best path to the Playoff?

Dinich: Clemson. First, the Tigers have a manageable schedule the rest of the way. Their toughest remaining game is against Louisville, and they've got home field advantage Nov. 2. Second, they have a great shot to win the ACC if they can sustain this offensive improvement, and the five highest ranked conference champs are guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Let's add a third reason -- the loss to Georgia (even as lopsided as it was), was still a neutral-site loss to what should be a top-10 team. Even though the Tigers might not face multiple ranked opponents, the committee will still respect road wins at Virginia Tech and Pitt, plus a win against SEC rival South Carolina. ESPN Analytics gives Clemson at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games. If that comes to fruition, its path to the playoff likely runs through Miami in the ACC title game.

Rittenberg: Don't sleep on LSU. Brian Kelly's Tigers haven't started seasons well, but they typically improve and pull off a signature win or two. LSU's two toughest games -- Oct. 12 against Ole Miss and Nov. 9 against Alabama -- are both at home, and both following open weeks. The Tigers are still reeling a bit from losing their most talented defender, linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., to an ACL injury. But the defense is coming off of its best performance last week against South Alabama, holding an offense that had scored 135 points in its previous two games to only 10, while forcing three three-and-outs and six punts. The Tigers are also getting their run game going, although there's still room to improve there. "LSU is the team that's quietly getting better every week," an SEC assistant said. "They've just been quietly handling business." If LSU beats Ole Miss, beats or pushes Alabama and wins the rest of its games, it could have a good case for CFP selection. If the Tigers beat both the Rebels and Tide, they can likely afford another loss and still have the profile to earn an at-large berth.

Which undefeated contender at the end of September has the toughest path?

Rittenberg: Ohio State's season is about to truly start, as their level of competition will get much tougher in October and November. This week, the star-studded Buckeyes offense will have to earn its points and yards against Iowa, while not committing the turnovers that the Hawkeyes have feasted on for years. "We're going to get challenged in a lot of areas," coach Ryan Day said this week. Ohio State then travels to Oregon, which has ironed things out after an erratic start, allowing just three total points in the second halves of its past two games (Oregon State, UCLA). The Buckeyes face their traditional rivals Michigan (home) and Penn State (road) in the second half of the season, but they also get tougher-than-expected games against Nebraska and Indiana. Ohio State likely will be favored in every game, but those are a lot of tests for a team that hasn't really faced any so far.

Dinich: Miami. The Canes' path is tough not only because of back-to-back road trips to Cal and Louisville, but also because if they don't win the ACC, they might not have enough on their resume to get an at-large bid. The pressure is on, especially after a close, controversial home win against Virginia Tech. Saturday's game at Cal marks the first time Miami has to leave its home state -- and if they play like they did against the Hokies, an upset is possible. Then they have a bye week to recover from the trip out West before traveling to Louisville. If Miami runs the table but loses to Clemson in the ACC championship game, the Canes still have a great chance of getting in the playoff as an at-large team. If Miami loses at Cal, though, or has a bad loss and doesn't win the league, its schedule strength will be called into question on Selection Day.

Who's the top true freshman so far?

Rittenberg: Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams is doing things we just don't see so early in a college career, even at a position that fast-tracks talented young players. After Williams' mind-bending performance against Georgia, Crimson Tide wide receivers coach JaMarcus Shephard received a call from Atlanta Falcons wideout Rondale Moore, who Shephard coached at Purdue, asking whether Williams delivered the same goods in practice. "It reminded me that, 'Hey, if they don't do it in practice, they're not going to do it in games,'" Shephard told me. "We had our guys holding, grabbing, pulling, tugging, almost to the point where we almost had to slow some of our scout team guys down. And Ryan is still out there making the plays every rep at practice."

Shephard described Williams as "greedy," but in a good way, such as on his 75-yard game-winning touchdown against Georgia and on so many other explosive plays this season. "You preach it over and over as a coach, 'Hey, come back to the football,'" Shephard said. "That, to me, is the epitome of being a taker. You come back to the football, attack the football, don't just expect it just to fall into your hands. The first thing that's lost is he came back to that ball and just took it out of the air."

Dinich: Williams has been fantastic -- there's no arguing about his candidacy for the top spot -- but Ohio State freshman Jeremiah Smith has been equally impressive. If you haven't seen his one-handed catch against Michigan State, look it up. Dude has a magnet on his hand. He has made six contested catches this season and is snagging 80% of the balls thrown his way. How about this stat: 89.5% of his catches account for a first down or a touchdown. Ohio State receivers coach Brian Hartline of course lauded Smith's physical attributes, but what has really wowed him is "the amount of seriousness, the amount of focus, the amount of day-to-day expectations he has on himself."

"It's not pulling teeth," Hartline said. "This is what he wants to do. So probably his level of maturity at this stage is the most special."

And yet there's still room for improvement. Hartline said they've been focused on understanding why each play was successful.

"There's a lot of talented individuals that do things and they really have no idea why it was so good," he said. "So to have a master's, a PhD in why things work allows you to increase your likelihood of doing it right when it's needed."

Rittenberg: The amazing thing about Williams is that he still can get better, despite averaging 28.9 yards per catch with five touchdowns through his first four college games. At 6-foot and 175 pounds, Williams lacks the size that Smith has, and will surely face more physical play from opposing defenses to thwart his incredible big-play ability. "He's got to get a little bit more physical with his hands when trying to keep defenders off of him," Shephard said. "That's a huge point for him. Being that he's a more slender kid, he's got to use his hands more violently so that he can make sure that guys aren't able to grab and tug him and pull him off of his release patterns as well as his stems of his routes."

Could Army or Navy make the CFP?

Dinich: Yes, if either one wins the American Athletic Conference and finishes as one of the selection committee's five highest-ranked conference champions, they would earn a spot in the 12-team field. Army and Navy are now in the same conference. They do not play each other during the regular season, but they could play each other in back-to-back weeks -- first in the AAC championship game, and then on Dec. 14 in the traditional Army-Navy game. It's worth noting that the Dec. 14 game does not count towards the CFP committee's final ranking on Dec. 8. The CFP protocol states that "the committee will not consider the results of games played after selection day." (That also means that if App State and Liberty were to reschedule their game that was canceled because of weather, and if it was played after Selection Day, that result also would not count toward the final rankings.)

Navy coach Brian Newberry told me this week he's not thinking about the CFP, but the fact that the nation has taken notice that both Army and Navy are undefeated is "great recognition for the academies and our men and women in the military."

"The academy teams are unique," he said. "They're developmental programs. They're not dealing with the portal and NIL. I think it speaks to the character of the teams and how close the players are. There's a lot to be said for playing with guys that you love and you trust and have been together and teams that play for each other instead of maybe playing for something else."

Rittenberg: The CFP is a long way off, but Army has positioned itself for a very good initial season in the AAC by returning to its identity with the triple-option offense. Coach Jeff Monken veered from the scheme a few years ago and used the shotgun option in 2023, but after not getting the desired results, he has restored what makes Army so difficult to defend when the pieces are in place. The Black Knights lead the FBS in rushing average (371.3 yards per game), nearly 50 yards better than the next team (UCF at 326). "We're more option-based right now than we've been in many years and doing it differently," Monken told me. "It's not all of the same option plays because of the blocking below the waist, too, and that suits us, too. It keeps us from having to block everybody at the point of attack on an option play. And that, forever, was the reason that it was a good offense for us."

Quarterback Bryson Daily, who averages 6 yards per carry with eight touchdowns, anchors the offense with a true power running element, while Kanye Udoh and others supplement the strategy. Monken also recognized an offense line that includes five seniors and sophomore center Brady Small, who started every game as a true freshman last season. "It's a veteran group, and they're rugged, tough, and we're just committed to running behind those guys," Monken said. "Interior and off-tackle runs. It's kind of the Army football of old. It's what we need to be, it's how we're built, it's the guys we have in the program."

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week? What's the best thing you've heard?

Rittenberg:

• SMU's recent improvement on offense can be easily traced back to the decision to settle on quarterback Kevin Jennings, but there is more to the story. Coach Rhett Lashlee told me the Mustangs have recommitted to a fast-paced offense with good run-pass balance. SMU had only 217 rushing yards and two touchdowns against its first two FBS opponents (Nevada and BYU). But the team had 442 rushing yards and five touchdowns in consecutive wins over TCU and Florida State.

  "The BYU game is when, I kind of already knew it, but it was obvious and hit us in the face that we're just not making defenses uncomfortable any more," Lashlee told me. "We needed to settle in our bye week: What's our identity going to be, moving forward? We got back to some of the things we've done over the last three or four years, which is playing with tempo, making people defend the whole field, and having good balance."

  Lashlee also felt compelled to pick a quarterback after using both Jennings and Preston Stone early on. Jennings has completed 30 of 42 attempts with five touchdowns and no interceptions the past two games, while remaining a run threat. Stone, who led SMU for most of last season, had 333 passing yards with three touchdowns and an interception on a 58.1% completion rate.

  "He makes us more explosive because obviously, he can make all the throws, he can get the ball out of his hands quickly, he can extend plays, which helps you on normal downs and third down," Lashlee said. "But he can also hurt you with his feet. He's done a nice job of being himself, being explosive, because you don't want to take that away from him, but also valuing the football."

• Iowa State's Matt Campbell, who last week became the school's all-time winningest coach, told me the key to ISU's first 4-0 start since 2000 is a maturity that has showed up in key moments. The Cyclones aren't the most dominant outfit, but they have allowed only five red-zone trips on defense and have 11 touchdowns on their own 15 red-zone opportunities. They lead the Big 12 and rank seventh nationally in turnover margin at plus-7.

  ISU's defense ranks fourth nationally in points allowed (7.3 per game), but has, at times, had issues with explosive plays allowed and missed tackles.

  "It hasn't all been perfect," Campbell said. "Their greatest success so far is situationally -- whether it's sudden change, goal line, red-zone defense -- that's been their calling card so far. They've been a really resilient group and make great in-game adjustments."

  Campbell also praised quarterback Rocco Becht's poise in leading an offense that hasn't put up wild numbers but hasn't lost a fumble and has only three interceptions (two by Becht).

  "One of the great things about Rocco is he's got all the tools -- high-end thrower, really accurate passer, can use his feet to extend plays -- but I still think the leadership is his special sauce," Campbell said.

• Rutgers coach Greg Schiano joked that his team is "ham-and-egging it pretty good" through the first four games, winning by avoiding big mistakes. The Scarlet Knights (4-0) are fifth nationally in fewest penalties per game (four), second in red-zone defense (54.5% scores allowed), tied for fifth in fewest turnovers (two) and 12th in rushing (237.8 YPG).

  An experienced defense has countered several key injury losses by increasing its rotations, especially at linebacker and safety. Rutgers has unsurprisingly leaned on its run game with senior Kyle Monangai, who has delivered several highlight-reel runs, including a bullying, ping-ponging 40-yard dash against Washington to get the Knights away from their own goal line.

  "He's a patient runner," Schiano told me. "Once he makes his mind up, he sticks his foot in the ground, and then he's incredibly violent. He doesn't stop. He's just like a perpetual motion going forward. He just really understands our run game. Does it always amount to a big run? No. But he really gets it."

  Rutgers faces its biggest test this week in Nebraska, led by freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who Schiano called "a generational talent," and an experienced Huskers defense that ranks 15th nationally against the run (85.4 YPG). The Knights may also be dealing with extreme heat in Lincoln, where temperatures could reach the high 90s Saturday.

  "The conditions are going to be brutal, really almost dangerous," Schiano said. "We're getting mentally, physically, emotionally prepared for this game, and we're going to see if it's enough, because this is going to be like nothing they've done in their career up to this point."

Dinich:

• With Big Ten and SEC athletic directors meeting in Nashville, Tennessee, next week, the push for multiple automatic qualifiers for both conferences is again in the spotlight. With the SEC now at 16 teams and the Big Ten at 18, leaders in both leagues agree they should have more teams in the playoff field -- especially if the event grows to at least 14 teams, as many expect it to.

  "Even if you get four, that's 25% of our league," one SEC source said. "There's not another sport we compete in where less than half of our league is getting into the postseason. In the NFL, 38% of their teams get into the postseason. We've got to figure out a way or we just dumb down our schedule and try to get in that way, but that's not really what anybody wants."

  Their need for guarantees has puzzled some, as one source said, "they're going to get their slots anyway."

  Sources in both the SEC and Big Ten have also talked about limiting or eliminating the role of the 13-member selection committee in the future to take some of the subjectivity out of the process. Not everyone agrees.

  "There is no perfect way to do this," one source said. "Once upon a time we used computers to make the selections, and people weren't happy with it. If someone isn't left out, then the event doesn't have a whole lot of value."

  The Big Ten and SEC have the bulk of control over the future format, but CFP leaders have been united in their stance that they'd like to see the 12-team field play out before making any major decisions about what the next version of it might look like.

  The new contract between ESPN and the CFP, which will start in the 2026 season, calls for either 11 or 13 CFP games in a 12- or 14-team field. There is a way, though, to address additional teams and games if the CFP were to decide to stretch it beyond 14.

• As discussions continue about what the CFP should look like in 2026 and beyond, there are ongoing parallel conversations about how the bowls should exist alongside it. One idea that has garnered some interest is eliminating historical bowl tie-ins and contracts in favor of a system that creates the best matchups.

  There has been hesitancy amongst Group of 5 leadership to create a separate postseason tournament that would provide an opportunity for G5 schools even though it would be in addition to -- not instead of -- a guaranteed spot in the CFP. There's a fear that it could create the perception among the Power 4 commissioners that they don't need the CFP for a successful postseason, when the reality is that access to the CFP is the golden ticket for everyone.

  While it's not impossible for that to happen at some point, the idea of maximizing matchups in the bowl games after the CFP field is chosen seems to be a legitimate alternative.

  "We're all excited about the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff. However, the opportunities the rest of the bowl system provides are still really, really meaningful to a lot of people," Bowl Season executive director Nick Carparelli told ESPN this week. "We're constantly trying to find ways to evolve and maximize the matchups of the teams ranked 13-30 at the end of the regular season."

• When the Big 12 preseason media poll was released this past summer, BYU was an afterthought with a projected 13th-place finish in the expanded 16-team conference.

  Now it's the media poll that's an afterthought, as undefeated BYU is leading the league.

  BYU is off to a 5-0 start for the third time in the past five seasons.The Cougars are also No. 2 this week in ESPN's strength of record; the average CFP contender would have a 36% chance of achieving the same undefeated record against the same opponents.

  BYU coach Kalani Sitake said he knows the Cougars can play better, and that's what they're focused on in the bye week.

  "You have to keep working," he said. "You have to keep them humble, you have to keep them hungry, and bought into more improvement. That's a fine line, because if you do that without praising them along the way, it's really difficult, because if it's always what you do wrong and never what you do right, then it becomes a problem."

  Sitake said it has taken some time to adjust to life as a Big 12 member, and some things "just can't be rushed."

  "Nobody's more impatient than coaches, but there's some things you just need to lay a foundation and keep building on," Sitake said. "The key has been we returned a bunch of guys who played last year and were leaders, and the leadership has been amazing. So I've been able to lean on them heavily in establishing our culture and the accountability and demand. That's been a major factor in getting us to where we are now."