The herd is thinning quickly. Two weeks ago, we had 43 unbeaten FBS teams, and now we're down to the Nasty Nineteen. We knew we would lose either Georgia or Alabama this past week, along with Penn State or Illinois, but saying goodbye to Ole Miss (loss to Kentucky) and UCF (loss to Colorado) was unexpected.
We've got three ACC unbeatens, and none of them are preseason favorites Florida State or Clemson. We've got two Big 12 unbeatens, and they aren't Kansas State or Utah -- they're Iowa State and BYU. UNLV is 4-0 and has more power-conference wins than Oregon or Ohio State.
It's an interesting group, in other words. And because of the expansion of the College Football Playoff -- and the auto-bids given to five conference champions -- even the unbeatens from the Group of 5 can entertain playoff ambitions as long as they keep winning. Anyone with a loss, even Georgia or Michigan, has to wait until the unbeatens are beaten to figure out where it stands.
So, let's rank college football's remaining blemish-free teams and talk about who's probably going to last the longest on this list.
1. Texas (5-0)
Last week's ranking: first
SP+ and FPI rankings: second and first
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 89th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 28.4%
What the Longhorns did in Week 5: def. Mississippi State 35-13. Filling in again for the injured Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning went 26-for-31 for 324 yards and two touchdowns (plus a rushing score). The offense stumbled around with fumbles and penalties, but the defense sacked MSU's Michael Van Buren Jr. six times, and eventually the Horns remembered how to score points and put the game away.
Why they're ranked here: The Horns don't really have a weakness. The run game could stand to be more explosive, but they make up for that with extreme run efficiency (third in rushing success rate). The offensive line does commit too many penalties, but I'm not sure that's a sustainable thing. The Longhorns are third in offensive SP+ despite playing a backup QB -- albeit a backup named Manning -- for most of three games, and they're up to eighth in defensive SP+ too. After a bye week, they've got Oklahoma and Georgia back-to-back, so we'll learn everything we need to about their big-game capabilities, but this team has gotten nearly straight A's thus far.
Next test (next game with SP+ win probability at 75% or lower): Week 8 vs. Georgia.
2. Alabama (4-0)
Last week's ranking: third
SP+ and FPI rankings: third and second
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 26th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 19.0%
What the Crimson Tide did in Week 5: def. Georgia 41-34. And they did so in the droughts-and-eruptions way we're quickly coming to expect from them. They scored four straight TDs and averaged 11.3 yards per play while building a 28-0 lead, then scored only once in their next eight drives as Georgia charged back to take a 34-33 lead. Then they won the game with a glorious, 75-yard Ryan Williams catch-and-run.
Why they're ranked here: The droughts still make me wary: Bama goes three-and-out 29% of the time on offense (73rd nationally) and ranks just 89th in rushing success rate, with quite a few negative plays. The run defense isn't quite as strong as I would have expected, either. But I'm not sure how much any of that matters when you've got maybe the most explosive quarterback (Jalen Milroe) and receiver (Williams) in the country.
A pass to Ryan Williams gains almost six more yards than a pass to anyone else in the country. He just seems to run differently than everyone else. And he's a 17-year-old true freshman.
Next test: Week 8 at Tennessee.
3. Tennessee (4-0)
Last week's ranking: second
SP+ and FPI rankings: fifth and fifth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 75th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 7.9%
What the Volunteers did in Week 5: off
Why they're ranked here: Alabama squeezed by them after the big Saturday night win, but the Vols will have plenty of opportunities to move back up the list: They'll welcome Bama to Knoxville in three weeks after games against athletic but error-prone teams in Arkansas and Florida, and they'll visit Georgia in mid-November.
They have yet to face a top-50 offense -- they will in due time -- but thus far the Volunteers' defense has been almost Bob Neyland-esque. Granted, they haven't opened the season with 10 straight shutouts as Neyland's Vols did in 1939, but they're first in points allowed per drive (0.39), yards allowed per play (3.1), success rate allowed (28.9%) and percentage of three-and-outs forced (53.7%). Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been very good, but when the Vols faced resistance from an active Oklahoma defense in Week 4, they just rode their own defense to a comfortable win. That's not a card head coach Josh Heupel has always been able to play.
Next test: Week 8 vs. Alabama.
4. Ohio State (4-0)
Last week's ranking: fourth
SP+ and FPI rankings: first and third
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 130th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 24.4%
What the Buckeyes did in Week 5: def. Michigan State 38-7. They avoided early danger thanks to fumble recoveries and a fourth-down stop, but after allowing 179 yards in MSU's first 19 snaps, they allowed just 67 in 31 thereafter. And against the best defense they've faced to date, the Buckeyes' offense gained 483 yards despite briefly missing quarterback Will Howard to minor injury.
Why they're ranked here: They've played to projections against a ridiculously weak schedule. It still probably says something that the Buckeyes rank fifth in points per drive and second in points allowed per drive, and the tests, of course, are on the way. In their eight remaining games, they'll play road games against two top-10 teams (Oregon and Penn State) while facing four other teams in the SP+ top 30.
Ohio State has been on a methodical path of destruction thus far. And while receiver Jeremiah Smith has been overshadowed by Alabama's Ryan Williams in the "This guy's a freshman???" category, he's still finding time to show off.
TWO UNBELIEVEABLE ONE-HANDED CATCHES BY JEREMIAH SMITH 🤯
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 29, 2024
THEY CAN'T GUARD HIM 👀 pic.twitter.com/vGUUs6rn41
Next test: Week 7 at Oregon.
5. Penn State (4-0)
Last week's ranking: eighth
SP+ and FPI rankings: sixth and eighth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 97th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.2%
What the Nittany Lions did in Week 5: def. Illinois 21-7. It took them a while to put the game away thanks to missed field goals and a red zone turnover on downs, but they eventually did so. And they held a surging offense to one score and 3.8 yards per play.
Why they're ranked here: The missed field goals were disconcerting -- Sander Sahaydak is just 1-for-4 on FGs of 40-plus -- but this team is showing few other weaknesses. The Nittany Lions are 13th in points per drive and 11th in points allowed per drive, quarterback Drew Allar has improved his efficiency by leaps and bounds in his first few games with coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and Nicholas Singleton has thus far been one of the more efficient and explosive RBs in the country.
Things are coming together nicely. PSU is a projected favorite of at least eight points in all but one remaining game, though tests like Week 7's trip to Los Angeles could tell us a lot.
Next test: Week 7 at USC.
6. Miami (5-0)
Last week's ranking: seventh
SP+ and FPI rankings: 11th and 10th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 88th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 27.6%
What the Hurricanes did in Week 5: def. Virginia Tech 38-34. They trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter and needed a shocking fourth-down catch, a spectacular chest pass and a last-second Hail Mary replay reversal to get the job done, but ... survive and advance.
Why they're ranked here: The offense has earned total benefit of the doubt. Cam Ward is a top-tier Heisman contender, Xavier Restrepo and Isaiah Horton are ultra-reliable targets, and the Canes are almost impossible to knock off schedule. The defense has been a bit scattershot against the run, however -- it's 86th in yards per carry allowed, not including sacks -- which might prove costly in upcoming road trips to Cal and (especially) Louisville. Every team faces unexpected challenges, so a near loss to Virginia Tech is only so damning. But it did raise a red flag or two.
Next test: Week 6 at California.
7. Oregon (4-0)
Last week's ranking: ninth
SP+ and FPI rankings: eighth and ninth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 86th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 10.0%
What the Ducks did in Week 5: def. UCLA 34-13. The offense remained both efficient and lacking in the explosiveness department, but the defense was excellent for the second straight week: The only touchdown UCLA scored was on a 96-yard Bryan Addison pick-six.
Why they're ranked here: After underachieving terribly in the first two games, Oregon overachieved against Oregon State and basically played to expectations against UCLA. That's a sign that the Ducks have righted the ship, as is the fact that they're 10th in both success rate (52.2%) and success rate allowed (33.2%). They're forcing negative plays and allowing almost none, and Dillon Gabriel is completing 82% of his passes.
Explosiveness remains a concern, however. The Ducks are averaging 12.1 yards per successful play (93rd), and opponents are averaging 12.6 (80th); go-to receiver Tez Johnson is averaging just 9.4 yards per catch. When you're not creating big plays and easy points, you're giving away a lot of margin for error.
Next test: Week 7 vs. Ohio State.
8. Missouri (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 10th
SP+ and FPI rankings: ninth and 14th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 105th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.0%
What the Tigers did in Week 5: off
Why they're ranked here: Speaking of big plays, apparently the Tigers have been stockpiling theirs.
The Mizzou defense is allowing zero or fewer yards 40% of the time (11th nationally) and 20-plus yards only 3% of the time (sixth). The offense has gone three-and-out only 8.9% of the time (second) with only 24.1% of snaps gaining zero or fewer yards (12th).
The big plays have been nonexistent, however. Brady Cook is averaging just 10.3 yards per completion, and only 9.3% of Mizzou's completions have gained 20-plus yards (127th). Without easy points, Mizzou has already asked big-legged freshman Blake Craig to attempt 16 field goals; he missed three of them against Vanderbilt in a near upset.
Four of Mizzou's next five opponents rank in the SP+ top 20; the Tigers can survive a loss or two and remain in the CFP hunt, but if the big plays don't appear immediately, winning big games will prove awfully difficult.
Next test: Week 6 at Texas A&M.
9. Indiana (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 11th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 29th and 16th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 118th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.6%
What the Hoosiers did in Week 5: def. Maryland 42-28. Against the best defense they've faced to date, the Hoosiers' offense misfired early, with three turnovers and only one touchdown in their first six drives. But the Indiana defense bought time with early three-and-outs, and eventually the offense rolled to the tune of 510 yards and five more TDs.
Why they're ranked here: The Hoosiers have averaged a 91.7 SP+ ranking over the past three years, but they've charged up to 29th despite preseason projections continuing to weigh them down. They're first in offensive success rate and second in points per drive despite Saturday's turnovers. And even with two Saturday interceptions, quarterback Kurtis Rourke is third in (opponent-adjusted) Total QBR.
The defense has benefited from a weak schedule so far -- Maryland's No. 64 offense is the only one the Hoosiers have faced in the offensive SP+ top 90 -- but there are only two top-30 offenses on their schedule. If the offense continues to hum, the Hoosiers will continue to win.
Next test: Week 6 at Northwestern.
10. Iowa State (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 15th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 21st and 22nd
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 79th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.7%
What the Cyclones did in Week 5: def. Houston 20-0. The defense forced five punts and three turnovers from a hapless Houston offense, and the ISU offense pulled the proverbial tale-of-two-halves routine: three points and 4.2 yards per play in the first half, 17 and 7.8, respectively, in the second.
Why they're ranked here: Jon Heacock's defense has averaged a 26.3 defensive SP+ ranking over the past seven years and is up to ninth (and fourth in points allowed per drive) after mostly shutting down a series of offenses of varying moribundity. But the offense isn't entirely trustworthy. The Cyclones have topped 21 points just once and have not proved either particularly efficient (67th in success rate) or explosive (73rd in yards per successful play). But they avoid negative plays, and receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have each proved dangerous at times for quarterback Rocco Becht. There isn't national title upside here, but there might prove to be Big 12 title upside.
Next test: Week 7 at West Virginia.
11. BYU (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 19th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 42nd and 34th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 50th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What the Cougars did in Week 5: def. Baylor 34-28. They pulled a Bama, flashing wonderful upside while bolting to an early 28-7 lead but scoring only twice on field goals in their final eight drives. After Baylor cut the lead to 34-28, the Cougars' defense made three consecutive stops to preserve the win.
Why they're ranked here: The offense comes and goes, but the defense keeps showing up.
The Cougars are in the top 25 in both success rate allowed and yards allowed per successful play, and despite a mediocre pass rush, the pass defense has been particularly strong. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has had his moments, too, ranking a decent 33rd in yards per dropback, but it's hard to imagine the Cougars remaining unbeaten if the run game doesn't improve. They're 98th in yards per carry (not including sacks), and it's making them awful on third downs: They've needed 7 or more yards on 59% of third downs (122nd), which tells you why they're 120th in third-down conversion rate (29.5%).
Next test: Week 7 vs. Arizona.
12. Pittsburgh (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 18th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 31st and 39th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 99th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What the Panthers did in Week 5: off
Why they're ranked here: It's difficult to recognize Pitt at the moment, and not only because the school finally went back to its glorious "Pitt Script" helmets. In the past seven seasons, Pat Narduzzi's Panthers have ranked better than 50th in defensive SP+ five times and better than 50th in offensive SP+ just once. But here they are, ranking sixth in both points per drive and yards per play one third of the way through the season. One problem: They're also 86th in points allowed per drive. They've scored at least 38 points in three games and allowed at least 24 in three.
Pitt has risen from 91st in SP+ last season to 31st so far this year despite the iffy defense, but five of its next seven opponents are 41st or better. Quarterback Eli Holstein and running back Desmond Reid are going to give the Panthers a chance in virtually any game they play this season, but fielding maybe their worst defense since 2016 is going to make virtually any game losable too.
Next test: Week 6 at North Carolina.
13. UNLV (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 20th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 54th and 35th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 103rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.1%
What the Rebels did in Week 5: def. Fresno State 59-14.
Why they're ranked here: UNLV briefly became college football's No. 1 topic last week when Holy Cross transfer and starting quarterback Matthew Sluka left the team due to unfulfilled NIL promises. But Barry Odom had brought in another FCS transfer, Hajj-Malik Williams, and in his first start post-Sluka, he threw for 182 yards in 16 passes and rushed for a Sluka-like 119 yards. The Rebels' defense and special teams also dominated, and what was supposed to be a big game in the race for the Group of 5's automatic CFP bid instead became a 59-14 UNLV statement.
Trading Sluka for Williams probably made UNLV a better passing team, and it seems both the run game and dynamic defense remain strong. The Rebels are now 20th in points per drive and 12th in points allowed per drive. Getting to 12-0 will require beating Syracuse, Oregon State and Boise State, among others, but this is a well-rounded and exciting team.
Next test: Week 6 vs. Syracuse.
14. James Madison (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 21st
SP+ and FPI rankings: 33rd and 41st
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 116th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 20.4%
What the Dukes did in Week 5: def. Ball State 63-7. An expected comfortable win was instead a laugher. JMU more than doubled BSU's yardage (522-250) and picked off three passes as well, taking one back for a TD. That bumped the Dukes to 33rd in SP+, highest of any G5 team.
Why they're ranked here: The Dukes have scored 133 points in their past two games and have allowed 7 or fewer in three of four. And now they're projected favorites of at least 8.5 points in every remaining regular-season game. They've allowed some big run plays here and there, and for all of his increasing big-play prowess, quarterback Alonza Barnett III does take a lot of sacks. But the biggest obstacle moving forward might be the fact that their full-season strength of schedule projects to rank in the 120s while other playoff hopefuls UNLV (90s) and Boise State (80s) rank higher in that department. That 70-50 win over North Carolina was a statement, though.
Next test: Week 7 vs. Coastal Carolina.
15. Rutgers (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 17th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 44th and 45th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 70th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.5%
What the Scarlet Knights did in Week 5: def. Washington 21-18. Washington outgained them by 222 yards and finished twice as many drives in opposition territory (eight to Rutgers' four) but settled for four field goal tries and missed three of them, including one at the buzzer. It was an extremely unlikely win, and Rutgers actually fell slightly in SP+ afterward, but again: Survive and advance.
Why they're ranked here: They have one of the worst run defenses in the country (127th in both rushing success rate and non-sack yards per carry), and they don't make more big plays than their opponent. But they avoid negative plays and penalties, they dominate the field position battle, and running back Kyle Monangai is awfully special. Their schedule features five more top-50 teams, per SP+, but it doesn't feature anyone in the top 20. I don't think they can keep up this unbeaten run for too much longer, but the schedule might be amenable to such an idea.
Next test: Week 6 at Nebraska.
16. Duke (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 22nd
SP+ and FPI rankings: 36th and 59th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 109th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What the Blue Devils did in Week 5: def. North Carolina 21-20. The Tar Heels' defense, scorned after giving up 70 to JMU, forced six straight Duke punts to start the game as UNC went up 20-0, but three TDs in a late four-drive stretch gave Manny Diaz's Blue Devils a rousing comeback win.
Why they're ranked here: Laboring to score 21 on UNC was certainly a hint as to why the Blue Devils won't be unbeaten for much longer: The offense isn't good. They're 88th in points per drive and 102nd in yards per play. But the defense has immediately become a Diaz Defense -- Duke is allowing just 16.2 points per game (28th nationally) and 4.1 yards per play (seventh), and the Blue Devils are making tons of disruptive plays. Per SP+ they're looking at five projected one-score games in their next six contests; they'll probably win enough of those to crank out a lovely first season for Diaz in Durham, but remaining on this list seems like a lot to ask.
Next test: Week 6 at Georgia Tech.
17. Navy (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 25th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 68th and 76th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 128th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.2%
What the Midshipmen did in Week 5: def. UAB 41-18. Navy QB Blake Horvath was again nearly perfect, completing 9 of 11 passes for 225 yards and two scores while leading the option attack with 84 rushing yards and another score. The Midshipmen scored TDs on their first four drives to go up 28-3 and never looked back.
Why they're ranked here: In only 11.3 drives per game (92nd nationally), Navy is scoring 46.0 points per game (ninth). Horvath is first in Total QBR and is operating this updated option attack at a level we haven't really seen before. The defense isn't good -- 73rd in points allowed per drive, 85th in success rate allowed despite playing only one good offense -- and it would take quite an effort to upset Notre Dame in Week 9. But this offense has been stunning thus far, and it has made Navy the AAC co-favorite. Not bad for a team that has averaged four wins per year since 2020.
Next test: Week 9 vs. Notre Dame.
18. Army (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 24th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 70th and 71st
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 134th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.5%
What the Black Knights did in Week 5: def. Temple 42-14. An early 13-play, nearly nine-minute touchdown drive set the tone. Army eased out to a 28-0 lead, and after back-to-back Temple TDs (the Owls' only two decent drives of the night), the Black Knights put the game away with two more scores.
Why they're ranked here: You can take a lot of what I just said about Navy and say it here, too. Against a slightly easier schedule, the Black Knights have been less explosive and more methodical, but they're third nationally in points per drive and second in success rate. Quarterback Bryson Daily isn't passing at a Horvathian level, but Army's bend-don't-break defense appears to bring more to the table than Navy's, ranking 20th in points allowed per drive. Like Navy, the Black Knights also probably won't beat Notre Dame, but they've emerged as AAC co-favorites with their rivals. What a story this is becoming.
Next test: Week 8 vs. East Carolina.
19. Liberty (4-0)
Last week's ranking: 26th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 57th and 90th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 133rd
Odds of reaching 11-0, per SP+: 36.8%
What the Flames did in Week 5: Their game at Appalachian State was canceled due to hurricane-related flooding in western North Carolina.
Why they're ranked here: Despite the return of quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley, the Liberty offense hasn't been quite as sharp this season, and droughts have nearly gotten the Flames into trouble. They trailed New Mexico State by 14 in the second quarter, they trailed East Carolina by 17, they were tied with Campbell in the second quarter, they led UTEP by only 4 late in the third.
They came back in each instance, and it appears the defense is again solid against the pass. But after earning a New Year's Six bowl bid last season despite the weakest schedule in the country -- and proceeding to get blown out by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl -- it appears LU's 2024 schedule might end up even weaker, and the team is less dominant. I'm betting the CFP committee doesn't give an unbeaten Liberty a playoff bid over a one-loss champion from another conference, and while I could make an "It's how you play, not whom you play" case if they were romping through a weaker schedule, they aren't. They need to find fifth gear in a hurry.
Next test: Week 13 vs. Western Kentucky.