The biggest difference with the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff this season -- aside from the bigger bracket -- is the guaranteed inclusion of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Which means Michigan isn't out because it lost to Texas. And USC isn't out because it lost to Michigan. And LSU isn't out because it lost to USC.
"We're obviously very disappointed," USC coach Lincoln Riley said after the loss in Ann Arbor, "but [we] know this season -- there's a lot left in it."
Which is why teams such as Indiana and Illinois are in the mix -- at least until they're not.
Below is a snapshot of what the College Football Playoff bracket might look like today -- through four weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee's projected top 12 for this week, plus eight teams on the bubble and a look at how the Group of 5 race stacks up after Northern Illinois and Memphis lost.
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Byes | First-round matchups
First four out | Next four out
Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.
No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns would earn the top seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is based on Texas also being the committee's No. 1 team on Selection Day. Texas has one of the best wins in the country -- against Michigan -- and that became even more valuable when the Wolverines beat USC at home. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, nobody in the country has a higher chance to reach the playoff than Texas (93%), and the Longhorns also have the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (27.3%).
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second-highest-ranked conference champion, behind only Texas. According to ESPN Analytics, Ohio State has the best chance to win the Big Ten (48.4%). The Buckeyes have at least a 60% chance to win each remaining game, but road trips to Oregon and Penn State will define the Big Ten race.
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champions. Following the win against South Florida, Miami saw the biggest increase (16%) in its chance to reach the playoff of any team. The Hurricanes now have a 69% chance to reach the playoff, seventh highest overall, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
No. 4 seed Utah Utes: It's been a revolving door at the top of the Big 12, but the Utes have earned the top spot as the projected conference champion this week following their critical road win at Oklahoma State. Further separation occurred when K-State lost to BYU, 38-9. Utah is now No. 4 in the country in ESPN's strength of record metric, which has historically aligned closely with the selection committee's top four teams.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Winner plays: No. 4 Utah
Explaining the seeding: Boise State would earn this spot as the committee's highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, and it would be the No. 12 seed at the expense of Michigan, which was ranked No. 12 by the committee. That would happen because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoff, and in this case, the fifth conference champion, Boise State, is ranked outside of the committee's top 12. To make room for the Broncos, Michigan would get bumped out. As for Georgia, the Bulldogs would be the SEC runner-up in this scenario, but even as the selection committee's No. 2 team in the country, they couldn't be seeded any higher than No. 5 because the top four seeds are reserved for conference champions.
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8 Oregon Ducks
Winner plays: No. 1 Texas
Explaining the seeding: Now that all five of the conference champions have been accounted for, this is where the bracket is comprised entirely of at-large bids. Alabama and Oregon are both coming off bye weeks, but each earned a true nonconference road win in Week 3 that helped its résumé. This SEC-Big Ten matchup features two teams that didn't win their respective conferences and didn't play each other during the regular season. Consider the importance of seeding in this matchup: The winner has to face the No. 1 team in the country, and that team will be fresh off its bye week.
No. 11 Missouri Tigers at No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: This is another example of how the seeding will look different from the ranking, as Tennessee was the committee's No. 3 team in the country. Because seeds 1-4 are reserved for conference champs, and No. 5 went to SEC runner-up Georgia, this is as high as Tennessee could be seeded. The Vols would still earn a first-round home game against another SEC team they didn't face during the regular season.
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels
Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State
Explaining the seeding: Penn State would be the third Big Ten team to be seeded and would face the fourth highest-ranked SEC team. The Rebels would be one of the four teams (seeded 5 through 8) that earn a first-round home game. Where it gets interesting is if Penn State wins, as the Nittany Lions would get a second game against Ohio State (or possibly even a third if they played each other for the Big Ten title). The committee does not consider the possibility of rematches when it ranks its teams on Selection Day, and there is no reseeding process to avoid them. Penn State hosts Ohio State on Nov. 2.
First four out
Clemson Tigers: After losing its season opener to Georgia, Clemson outscored its next two opponents 125-55, and quarterback Cade Klubnik is on fire with a 93.3 QBR, good for third in the FBS. The Tigers are favored by ESPN Analytics in each of their remaining games and have a 7% chance to win all nine of their remaining games.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The winner of Saturday's game against Louisville will see its chance to reach the playoff climb to around 50%, but if Notre Dame loses? The Irish's playoff hopes will nosedive to 11%. No Week 5 game will have a greater impact on the CFP race, according to ESPN Analytics.
Michigan Wolverines: The Wolverines would have been No. 12 in the selection committee's ranking on Selection Day, but they were bumped to make room for the fifth conference champion, which is Boise State in this scenario. In order for Michigan to move up to a safer spot, the Wolverines will need to generate more offense from their passing game. ESPN Analytics gives the Wolverines less than a 50% chance to beat Washington, Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State.
USC Trojans: The Trojans aren't out of the mix because of a close road loss to a ranked Michigan team, but their margin for error obviously shrank. USC has a lot of work to do to move back into the bracket, as it now has the fifth-best chance of any Big Ten team to reach the conference championship game and only a 4.1% chance to win it. If the Trojans are going to get in the playoff, it's likely to be through an at-large bid, and the win against LSU continues to look good. So does LSU ...
Next four out
LSU Tigers: The Tigers outscored UCLA 17-0 in the second half last week and outgained the Bruins 244-89 in the final two quarters. If LSU continues to improve, it might hit its stride when it matters most -- October. According to ESPN Analytics, LSU will lose all three October games and start November with a loss to Alabama.
Iowa State Cyclones: The undefeated Cyclones are No. 9 in ESPN's strength of record metric, and the win at Iowa is an early highlight on their résumé.
Illinois Fighting Illini: The 4-0 start includes wins against two opponents that were ranked in the Associated Press poll at the time -- Kansas and Nebraska. What matters, though, is that they are ranked by the selection committee in the end.
Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are also off to a 4-0 start and have the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game, behind Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon.
Dropped from the bubble: Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West): Boise State has the highest chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (27%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Broncos need to beat Washington State, though, to help solidify their status here.
2. UNLV Rebels (Mountain West): With road wins against Houston and Kansas, the Rebels are starting to build a résumé the committee will respect. UNLV now has a 16% chance to reach the playoff, but that can increase with opportunities against Fresno State, Syracuse, Oregon State and Boise State.
3. James Madison Dukes (Sun Belt): James Madison was the biggest beneficiary of NIU and Memphis losing in Week 4. After beating North Carolina on the road in embarrassing fashion (70-50), JMU now has a 17% chance to reach the playoff, second only to Boise State's.
4. Fresno State Bulldogs (Mountain West): Don't count the Bulldogs out yet. Their position here could change quickly with a win Saturday at UNLV. They also have opportunities against Washington State and UCLA.
5. Liberty Flames (Conference USA): Strength of schedule didn't keep Liberty out of a New Year's Six bowl last year, and it might not keep the Flames out of the playoff this year. It all depends on how the season unfolds, but Liberty is favored to win C-USA and has a 10.8% chance to win out.