In one week, we lost nearly half of our unbeaten teams. Week 4 of the college football season was a chaotic mess of the best kind, and it took us from 43 blemish-free programs to a mere 26.
Some of this was expected. For starters, a lot of the unbeatens played against each other. Others, such as California (at Florida State) and Louisiana (vs. Tulane), were at least slight underdogs.
As it turned out, though, some simply weren't meant for this unbeaten life and fell as favorites. Kansas State imploded in a late Saturday loss at fellow unbeaten BYU. Memphis, caught dreaming playoff dreams, got sliced up for 379 rushing yards by a Navy team not ready to leave this list. Toledo threw two interceptions in the final minute and fell to Western Kentucky. Northern Illinois fell asleep at the switch and lost to Buffalo. North Carolina gave up 70 -- 70! -- to unbeaten James Madison.
So here we are. Among them, the Terrible 26 don't face too many massive Week 5 tests, so maybe the band can mostly stick together this time. Regardless, it's time to rank college football's remaining unbeatens!
1. Texas (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: first and first
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 77th
What the Longhorns did in Week 4: def. Louisiana-Monroe 51-3
Last week's ranking: first
Why they're ranked here: First in the computers, first in the polls. Sounds like a pretty good No. 1 team, no? With Quinn Ewers out, backup QB Arch Manning did just fine against ULM, and now Texas heads into SEC play -- well, sort of: The Longhorns play Mississippi State -- ranking ninth in points per drive and second in points allowed per drive. They're dominating from an efficiency standpoint, they're making more big plays, they're nearly perfect in the red zone ... this has been a mostly flawless team in the run-up to the October combo of Oklahoma in Week 7 and Georgia in Week 8.
Next test (next game with SP+ win probability at 75% or lower): Week 8 vs. Georgia
2. Tennessee (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: sixth and fifth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 67th
What the Volunteers did in Week 4: def. Oklahoma 25-15
Last week's ranking: second
Why they're ranked here: In its first test against an SP+ top 50 team (Oklahoma), Tennessee survived a loud Norman crowd and a strong OU defense and won comfortably. The Vols were content with taking few offensive risks because they knew the Sooners were never going to score enough on a defense that now ranks first nationally in points allowed per drive. Tennessee's defensive front has dominated all (mediocre) comers thus far, though the opponent strength ramps up considerably: After a Week 5 bye, the Vols play Arkansas (23rd in offensive SP+), then Florida (13th), then Alabama (third).
Next test: Week 8 vs. Alabama
3. Alabama (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: third and second
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 97th
What the Crimson Tide did in Week 4: bye
Last week's ranking: third
Why they're ranked here: Thus far, Kalen DeBoer seems to know what to do with the most athletic team he's ever coached. Alabama has gained at least 20 yards on 10.6% of its snaps (seventh nationally), while opponents have done so just 1.4% of the time (third). The Tide rank just 63rd in offensive success rate -- I'm not sure an offense led by Jalen Milroe can ever totally avoid all-or-nothing vibes -- but the defense has been flawless, and the offensive playmakers are making plays: Three different players have at least one 40-yard rush, five have at least one 20-yard catch and freshman Ryan Williams has five catches of 30-plus.
Next test: Week 5 at Georgia
4. Ohio State (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: second and third
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 132nd
What the Buckeyes did in Week 4: defeated Marshall 49-14
Last week's ranking: fourth
Why they're ranked here: The Buckeyes have played to expectations thus far. Against an admittedly weak trio of nonconference opponents, they were projected to win by an average of 46.1 points and won by an average of 45.7. The defense has perhaps been a hair less efficient than expected (25th in success rate allowed), but they've made up for it with (a) the most efficient run game in the country to date and (b) domination in the big-play department. The offense will get tested against Michigan State (22nd in defensive SP+) and Iowa (second) over the next two weeks, then Week 7's trip to Oregon looms. But so far, so good.
Next test: Week 7 at Oregon
5. Georgia (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: fifth and fourth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 23rd
What the Bulldogs did in Week 4: bye
Last week's ranking: fifth
Why they're ranked here: Hey, I'm just trying to fuel Kirby Smart's disrespect engine. Georgia is probably not the fifth-best team in the country, but unlike the four teams above, the Dawgs have already had to survive a genuinely disappointing performance, underachieving against projections by three touchdowns in a narrow win at Kentucky. The defense has been as suffocating as ever, allowing just 18 points in three games, but while the offense has faced a couple of solid defenses (Clemson's and Kentucky's) -- ranking 71st in rushing success rate (and only 40th passing) -- it isn't quite what was expected. That will have to improve to beat Bama.
Next test: Week 5 at Alabama
6. Ole Miss (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: fourth and sixth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 131st
What the Rebels did in Week 4: def. Georgia Southern 52-13
Last week's ranking: sixth
Why they're ranked here: After just about the easiest nonconference slate imaginable -- reminder when you see Ole Miss' No. 131 SOS ranking above: There are only 134 teams in FBS -- the Rebels will finally see their schedule ramp up a bit, first against top-30 teams (Kentucky and South Carolina in Weeks 5 and 6), then top-15 LSU in Week 7. By any indication, they'll be ready for the challenge. They're first in both success rate and success rate allowed, and they're as explosive as ever. SP+ gives them a 21% chance of reaching 12-0, so they might remain on this list for quite a while.
Next test: Week 7 at LSU
7. Miami (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: seventh and seventh
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 92nd
What the Hurricanes did in Week 4: def. South Florida 50-15
Last week's ranking: seventh
Why they're ranked here: Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes haven't given us a single reason to think of them as anything but a contender thus far. They started the year 19th in SP+ but have overachieved against projections in every game and have moved up to seventh. Last week, against a game and athletic USF team, they simply waited the Bulls out, weathering some early blows (it was 15-14 late in the second quarter) before scoring the knockout punch in the form of a 36-0 run. They suffer no negative plays, they create a ton and quarterback Cam Ward is a legit Heisman contender. They're also projected favorites in every remaining game.
Next test: Week 8 at Louisville
8. Penn State (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: eighth and eighth
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 113th
What the Nittany Lions did in Week 4: def. Kent State 56-0
Last week's ranking: 10th
Why they're ranked here: The Nittany Lions have sandwiched one shaky performance (34-27 over Bowling Green) with two methodically destructive ones (blowouts of West Virginia and Kent State). Through three games, quarterback Drew Allar is fifth in Total QBR, backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are averaging 7.0 yards per carry between them and the defense is both seventh in stuff rate and 15th in pressure rate. I'm not sure about the secondary, especially without injured safety Kevin Winston Jr., but this has been a top-10 team so far.
Next test: Week 7 at USC
9. Oregon (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: ninth and 10th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 80th
What the Ducks did in Week 4: bye
Last week's ranking: 12th
Why they're ranked here: The more I think about Oregon's blowout of Oregon State in Week 3, the more comfortable I am with the Ducks. They were terribly disappointing in Weeks 1 and 2, beating Idaho by 10 and needing two return scores to beat Boise State, but even with those games they're ninth and 19th, respectively, in offensive and defensive success rate, and the game against OSU was a sign that they still have offensive explosiveness. A shaky run defense could be terribly problematic against Ohio State in a couple of weeks, but this is probably still a top-10 team.
Next test: Week 7 vs. Ohio State
10. Missouri (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 10th and 13th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 101st
What the Tigers did in Week 4: def. Vanderbilt 30-27 (2OT)
Last week's ranking: ninth
Why they're ranked here: Positive preseason projections have kept the Tigers in the top 15 in both SP+ and FPI, but they've had to win narrow games as a double-digit favorite for two straight weeks. The defense has been mostly strong, but SP+ projected the offense to score a combined 81.0 points against Boston College and Vanderbilt, and the Tigers scored just 47 in regulation. Brady Cook has completed just three of 12 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. They're getting by without ample big plays, but road trips to Texas A&M and Alabama loom in October. If the offense doesn't click, the Tigers aren't on this list much longer.
Next test: Week 6 at Texas A&M
11. Indiana (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 30th and 15th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 128th
What the Hoosiers did in Week 4: def. Charlotte 52-14
Last week's ranking: 11th
Why they're ranked here: Using SP+ projections, the average top-five team would have expected to beat Indiana's four opponents to date by 47.9 points per game; Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers have won by an average of 41.3. On a per-drive basis, they're first in points and ninth in points allowed. Kurtis Rourke is fourth in Total QBR, and Mikail Kamara and Lanell Carr Jr. headline a dynamite pass rush. This is a damn good team; the only thing we haven't learned about yet is its staying power. We'll find out about that soon enough.
Next test: Week 5 vs. Maryland
12. Louisville (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 12th and 11th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 114th
What the Cardinals did in Week 4: def. Georgia Tech 31-19
Last week's ranking: 15th
Why they're ranked here: We haven't learned a ton about the Cardinals yet, but what we've learned has been mostly appealing. Louisville is 10th in both points and points allowed per drive; as expected, it was challenged by Georgia Tech on Saturday, found itself tied late in the third quarter and proceeded to score on a 57-yard Ja'Corey Brooks touchdown catch and a 55-yard blocked field goal return to put the game away. Quarterback Tyler Shough is running a ruthlessly efficient attack, and the defense is great against the run. (The pass? Not so much. But we'll worry about that later.)
Next test: Week 5 at Notre Dame
13. Utah (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 13th and 22nd
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 71st
What the Utes did in Week 4: def. Oklahoma State 22-19
Last week's ranking: 18th
Why they're ranked here: Facing a tough road trip to Stillwater without injured quarterback Cam Rising, Utah played its most impressive defensive game in quite a while. The Utes charged to a 22-3 lead, outgaining the Cowboys by a 368-156 margin through three quarters and getting OSU quarterback Alan Bowman benched. (He returned when his backup fared even worse.) The Pokes made a late charge, but Utah survived and seized early control of the Big 12 race in the process.
Almost half of Utah's opponents' plays (45.4%) have gained zero or fewer yards this season. If Rising is ever 100% again -- it's always something -- this team has a top-10 ceiling.
Next test: Week 8 vs. TCU
14. UCF (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 29th and 16th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 91st
What the Knights did in Week 4: bye
Last week's ranking: 16th
Why they're ranked here: Granted, TCU's blowout loss to rival SMU didn't do anything for UCF's résumé -- the Knights' only win over an SP+ top-90 team was a 1-pointer against the Horned Frogs -- but this is still a team with absurd offensive potential. The Knights are leading the nation in rushing at the moment, ahead of two thriving service academy teams (Army and Navy) and the Ashton Jeanty-led Boise State attack, and KJ Jefferson is averaging 9.9 yards per dropback too. The pass defense is a liability, to put it politely, but the ceiling is high in Orlando.
Next test: Week 6 at Florida
15. Iowa State (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 26th and 25th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 66th
What the Cyclones did in Week 4: def. Arkansas State 52-7
Last week's ranking: 22nd
Why they're ranked here: The Cyclones opened things up a bit in Week 4; after winning a pair of Midwest-flavored rock fights against North Dakota (21-3) and Iowa (20-19), ISU cruised to a 52-7 win over Arkansas State. An experienced defense appears as legit as ever -- especially a pass defense that ranks fifth in yards allowed per dropback and sixth in interception rate -- and the run game perked up a bit as well. Quarterback Rocco Becht brings a fascinating combination of explosiveness (13.8 yards per completion) and escapability (1.3% sack rate) to the table, and per SP+ Iowa State is now the No. 2 favorite in the Big 12.
Next test: Week 6 vs. Baylor
16. Illinois (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 43rd and 40th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 62nd
What the Fighting Illini did in Week 4: def. Nebraska 31-24 (OT)
Last week's ranking: 28th
Why they're ranked here: I'm learning to trust. I'm trying my best. But I've been conditioned. For years, Illinois has combined occasionally spicy defense with mostly moribund offense. In fact, in the past 20 seasons, the Fighting Illini have only twice averaged more than 2.15 points per drive, an average that would currently rank 87th in FBS.
This season, they're averaging 2.9 points per drive.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer has played super-safe ball, completing 71% of his passes with no interceptions and rising to 31st in Total QBR. This still isn't an amazing offense -- the Illini are still just 58th in success rate -- but with the secondary as opportunistic as ever, their ceiling is higher than it's been in a while. (They're still probably going to lose at Penn State this Saturday, though.)
Next test: Week 5 at Penn State
17. Rutgers (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 41st and 46th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 110th
What the Scarlet Knights did in Week 4: def. Virginia Tech 26-23
Last week's ranking: 17th
Why they're ranked here: This is an extremely Rutgers team this year, combining a relentless run game (Kyle Monangai has 457 yards at 6.4 per carry) with elite pass defense and an even more elite field position game. The Scarlet Knights proved resourceful Saturday in Blacksburg, too, watching a 16-point lead disappear late but surviving with a huge pass play (Ian Strong's 63-yard reception, which set up the go-ahead field goal) and a late interception. The run defense isn't holding up well -- it is 114th in rushing success rate allowed -- and that will eventually cost it. But it hasn't yet.
Next test: Week 5 vs. Washington
18. Pittsburgh (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 37th and 33rd
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 94th
What the Panthers did in Week 4: def. Youngstown State 73-17
Last week's ranking: 33rd
Why they're ranked here: The saga of the Pitt offense is one of the strangest in recent memory.
2019: 100th in offensive SP+, 21.2 points per game
2021: sixth in offensive SP+, 41.4 PPG
2023: 108th in offensive SP+, 20.2 PPG
It's a full rise-and-fall story arc in a small period of time. But Pat Narduzzi's additions of former Western Carolina offensive coordinator Kade Bell and Alabama backup quarterback Eli Holstein have created a new arc. Pitt blew out two minnows, Holstein pulled off late-game heroics against both Cincinnati and West Virginia, and the Panthers are 4-0 for the first time since 2000. Do they have staying power? Is the pass defense good enough? Not sure. But this is fun.
Next test: Week 6 at North Carolina
19. BYU (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 42nd and 37th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 47th
What the Cougars did in Week 4: def. Kansas State 38-9
Last week's ranking: 31st
Why they're ranked here: Over the past three seasons, BYU's arc hasn't been rise-and-fall so much as just ... fall.
2020: fourth in SP+ (ninth on offense, fourth on defense)
2021: 26th in SP+ (28th offense, 32nd defense)
2022: 66th in SP+ (47th offense, 76th defense)
2023: 76th in SP+ (75th offense, 94th defense)
That's three straight years of regression on both sides of the ball. The offense isn't trustworthy this year, but the defense has rebounded with vengeance, especially against the pass. The Cougars held Kansas State to 5.1 yards per play and forced a trio of turnovers to turn a tight game into a blowout win. A couple more wins like that, and they'll reach "Big 12 contender" status.
Next test: Week 5 at Baylor
20. UNLV (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 65th and 51st
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 88th
What the Rebels did in Week 4: bye
Last week's ranking: 25th
Why they're ranked here: Recent BYU defenses have basically been the 1985 Bears compared to UNLV's defense over the past, well, ever. The Rebels haven't ranked higher than 88th in defensive SP+ since 2007 and were projected 119th this year. But after a 3-0 start that includes two wins over Big 12 opponents, they're 19th in points allowed per drive, and they're forcing three-and-outs 54% of the time (third). The lack of a passing game will eventually cost them, but they've positioned themselves well in the early CFP race, and somehow defense is the reason why.
Next test: Week 5 vs. Fresno State
21. James Madison (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 57th and 59th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 108th
What the Dukes did in Week 4: def. North Carolina 70-50
Last week's ranking: 40th
Why they're ranked here: James Madison scored 13 points against Gardner-Webb, then 70 against North Carolina. Go ahead and figure that one out, I dare you. But now that we've seen both extremes, we're looking at a team with an aggressive and turnover-hungry defense, a strong run front, massive big-play potential (Alonza Barnett III is averaging 16.1 yards per completion) and, per SP+, a 19% chance of getting to 12-0. The Dukes are projected favorites of at least 8.5 points in every remaining Sun Belt game, though the "nothings" in the all-or-nothing offense could still present occasional problems.
Next test: Week 7 vs. Coastal Carolina
22. Duke (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 34th and 65th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 130th
What the Blue Devils did in Week 4: def. Middle Tennessee 45-17
Last week's ranking: 35th
Why they're ranked here: After a surprisingly close win over UConn in Week 3, Manny Diaz's Blue Devils reasserted themselves with an easy romp over what might admittedly be an awful Middle Tennessee team. A terribly inefficient run game means the offense is reliant on moments of magic from quarterback Maalik Murphy and receivers Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol, but the defense sure looks like a Diaz defense: ridiculously aggressive -- 10th in success rate allowed, fourth in havoc rate -- and all sorts of fun. Get the antacid ready, by the way: Five of their next six games are projected within 4.5 points.
Next test: Week 5 vs. North Carolina
23. Washington State (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 49th and 42nd
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 57th
What the Cougars did in Week 4: def. San José State 54-52 (2OT)
Last week's ranking: 23rd
Why they're ranked here: The Cougars are as battle-tested as a team can be through four weeks.
Per ESPN Analytics, the offense has already made seven plays that improved its win probability by at least 10% -- including three John Mateer-to-Josh Meredith passes -- and the defense has already made five. (The defense has also allowed five such plays, it must be said.) Wazzu has a steady and efficient run game, an explosive passing game and, in Mateer, a fearless QB. The Cougs face trips to Boise State and Fresno State in the next two games, so they might not be long for this list, but are you going to count them out?
Next test: Week 5 at Boise State
24. Army (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 78th and 75th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 134th
What the Black Knights did in Week 4: def. Rice 37-14
Last week's ranking: 37th
Why they're ranked here: Second in rushing yards per game. Fourth in success rate (third rushing). Sixth in three-and-outs. Fewest plays gaining zero or fewer yards. First in blown run block rate. I'm calling it: The Army option attack is back, baby! After a year of adjusting to new blocking rules, the Black Knights are annoying defenses as well as ever, the defense is packing all sorts of bend-don't-break goodness, and following Saturday's blowout of Rice, they're now the No. 2 favorite in the AAC, per SP+. I'm not saying they're CFP contenders just yet, but I'm not not saying it either.
Next test: Week 6 at Tulsa
25. Navy (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 83rd and 87th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 119th
What the Midshipmen did in Week 4: def. Memphis 56-44
Last week's ranking: 38th
Why they're ranked here: Take it in, bask in it. Navy's Blake Horvath had one of the best quarterbacking performances we'll see all year in college football.
Blake Horvath breaks loose and sprints 90 yards to the end zone for a thrilling touchdown for Navy.
Horvath completed nine of 12 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and not including two sacks, he also rushed 10 times for 224 yards and four scores. That's one TD for every four pass or rush attempts. Navy torched Memphis for 566 yards in just 53 plays, and like Army, the season outlook is completely different than it was a month ago. The Midshipmen haven't ranked above 89th in offensive SP+ since 2019, but they're currently 11th in points per drive, and they're at least slight projected favorites in every remaining AAC game. Army vs. Navy in the AAC championship game, followed by the real Army vs. Navy game a week later? It's on the table.
Next test: Week 5 at UAB
26. Liberty (4-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 58th and 90th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 133rd
What the Flames did in Week 4: def. East Carolina 35-24
Last week's ranking: 41st
Why they're ranked here: After an unbeaten regular season in 2023, it appears Liberty is playing with its food a bit in 2024. The Flames led FCS' Campbell by only 7 points at halftime, trailed New Mexico State by 9 with six minutes left, led UTEP by just 4 late in the third quarter and spotted ECU a 17-0 second-quarter lead. They charged back to win all four games, but the offense isn't quite the big-play factory it was last season, and the defense, though more efficient than in 2023, gives up some big pass plays. Quarterback Kaidon Salter & Co. still have loads of upside, but they need to show it more.
Next test: Week 5 at Appalachian State