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Week 1 recap: Overreactions on Penn State, Clemson, Miami

No. 3 Oregon led Idaho by only three points halfway through the fourth quarter. No. 24 NC State trailed Western Carolina and UCLA trailed Hawaii heading into the fourth. Abilene Christian had a couple of chances to score and win against Texas Tech. Tennessee Tech led Middle Tennessee and Central Arkansas led Arkansas State in the final minute. Old Dominion led South Carolina with seven minutes left. Texas State (Lamar), Michigan State (Florida Atlantic) and Wisconsin (Western Michigan) couldn't shake heavy underdogs.

The main theme of Week 1 of the 2024 college football season: near upsets. Sure, some favorites indeed fell -- namely, Virginia Tech against Vanderbilt -- but for the most part, the favorites survived. And some made pretty ferocious statements.

When we've been talking for eight months and we're desperate for something to react to, expected or unexpected, we have only one choice: We must overreact! There's nothing more fun than jumping to conclusions with a tiny sample size, especially when at least a few of these overreactions turn out to be correct. So here are eight bold (or bold-ish) statements after a controlled but entertaining Week 1.

Jump to a section:
Penn State will win Big Ten! | Trouble for FSU!
Trouble for Clemson! | Miami will win ACC!
OK State will win Big 12! | Buffs will disappoint everyone!
UNLV to the CFP! | Northwestern nailed it!
Biggest surprises | Heisman of the week | Top 10 games

Florida State is going 5-7

Boston College 28, Florida State 13

In my annual Ifs List in July, I gave Florida State four "ifs" that needed affirmation to make it a national title contender:

If ... the anger has subsided. The disappointment of last season's CFP snub felt like something that might not just go away overnight. I was curious whether there might be some sort of hangover in 2024.

If ... DJ Uiagalelei's return to the ACC is a happy one. He was solid after transferring from Clemson to Oregon State, and he was the clear QB1 heading into the year. He had to be at least decent.

If ... Uiagalelei has receivers. Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson were gone, and new, reliable options needed to present themselves.

If ... the portal provided good defensive tackles. The D-line had obvious upside (and I figured the O-line would be an outright strength), but after a couple of years of epic success in the transfer portal, Mike Norvell needed to hope his new DT imports were immediate hits.