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          College Football Playoff championship: Washington-Michigan takeaways

          Michigan capped off a perfect college football season with a national championship in 2023. Maria Lysaker/USA TODAY Sports
          • Bill ConnellyJan 9, 2024, 08:37 AM ET
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              Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
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          In the middle of the first decade of the 2000s, Rob Ash's Drake Bulldogs and Jim Harbaugh's San Diego Toreros began a brief but impactful rivalry. Drake beat USD 25-20 in 2004 on the way to a Pioneer League title and FCS playoff bid. In 2005, Harbaugh returned the favor, winning 31-26 at home and winning their first conference title.

          In 2006, Ash thought Drake had USD in the crosshairs. The Bulldogs were meeting the Toreros at home for the eventual conference title, and it was a blustery Iowa day: cold, windy and eventually wet. Ash thought he had Harbaugh's squad of Californians at a disadvantage in the battle for another conference title, but USD showed up prepared. Their players wore puffy jackets and warm clothing provided by the San Diego Chargers, with whom Harbaugh had made a deal before the game.

          Through resourcefulness and a by-any-means-necessary ethos, Harbaugh's Toreros turned a potential disadvantage into an extreme advantage and cruised to a 37-0 win. They won another conference title and walloped Monmouth by 20 points in the FCS' Gridiron Classic.

          The ever-resourceful Harbaugh parlayed both that success and ethos into everything that followed. He took the Stanford job in 2007 and flipped the Cardinal from 4-8 in his first year to 12-1 in his fourth. He went 44-19-1 in four years with the San Francisco 49ers, reaching the NFC Championship Game three straight times and the Super Bowl once. He returned to the collegiate level in 2015 in an endless quest for glory. And Monday night in Houston, he found it in the College Football Playoff National Championship. His Michigan Wolverines turned a nip-and-tuck game against the Washington Huskies into an easy 34-13 victory cruise, securing the school's first national title since 1997.

          Harbaugh had taken up coaching after an excellent run as a quarterback. He threw for 5,214 yards and 31 touchdowns for Bo Schembechler's Michigan, going 23-3-1 in 1985-86 and finishing third in the 1986 Heisman voting. The Chicago Bears picked him 26th in the 1987 NFL draft, and he threw for 26,288 career yards, started 140 games and eventually led the Indianapolis Colts to the 1995 AFC Championship Game. But like his father, Jack, and brother, John, he was destined to make his biggest mark as a coach.

          Harbaugh quickly progressed from FCS head coach to Super Bowl coach to FBS head coach. In his early days back at U-M, he made waves with kicker sleepovers, Judge Judy love, khakis love, occasional shirtlessness and wins. (And illegal cheeseburgers for which he was eventually suspended.) Michigan had gone just 12-13 under Brady Hoke in 2013-14 but won 10 games in each of Harbaugh's first two years in charge. In 2016, the Wolverines came within a millimeter of the Big Ten title and a potential CFP bid.

          Then came the roller coaster. Harbaugh couldn't get the quarterback play right, and his Wolverines slipped first to an average of 9.0 wins from 2017 to '19, then to 2-4 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He had to renegotiate his contract and hire new assistants to keep his job, and in the search for new edges, he might have given a bit too much freedom (and not enough attention) to a rogue scout. Regardless, in 2021, Michigan broke through for its first win over Ohio State since 2011, first Big Ten title since 2003 and first CFP bid ever. After a demoralizing loss to Georgia in the playoff, the Wolverines responded by improving both their record and their team, winning 13 straight games in 2022 before falling to TCU in a CFP upset.

          In 2023, they took no prisoners. Despite two different suspensions for Harbaugh at the beginning and end of the season, the Wolverines mauled a series of overmatched opponents. Despite Harbaugh's absence, they beat Penn State and Ohio State in November. And with Harbaugh back on the sideline in the postseason, the Wolverines rode their bully ball offense and a ferocious defensive performance to a national title. Here's how it happened:

          Jump to a section:
          Pressuring Penix
          Plays that swung the game
          Harbaugh's quest

          When a guy has the game of his life, he usually doesn't have another

          Michigan didn't get the otherworldly quarterback play that had defined recent title game winners: J.J. McCarthy completed just 10 of 18 passes for 140 yards, a touchdown and 35 non-sack rushing yards. His Total QBR rating for the game: just 58.3. That seemingly presented Washington with an opportunity, but the Huskies couldn't take advantage.

          In my title game preview, I suggested that while Michigan was the pretty obviously superior team in the national title game, if Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and defensive end Bralen Trice could reproduce their Allstate Sugar Bowl form, they could give the Huskies a shot. We grow so accustomed to assuming that the last thing we saw from a player is what we will always see from them, and a lot of people picked Washington to win this game because of Penix's New Orleans exploits (430 passing yards, two touchdowns, countless perfect passes). But Trice was credited with zero tackles for loss Monday night, and more importantly, Penix just couldn't get untracked.

          Penix reverted to his form from the second half of the season, and he dealt with far more pass-rush pressure than he was used to. While UW offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb was creative in the plays he was calling to take pressure off Penix, the Huskies just couldn't generate consistency on offense. Penix completed just 27 of 51 passes (53%) for 255 yards, a touchdown and two picks.

          I also suggested in my title game preview that if Washington's dreadfully mediocre defense couldn't stop Michigan's run game and force the Wolverines into occasional Plan B, nothing else would matter. Well, in the first quarter, Michigan rushed nine times for 174 yards. The Huskies adapted over time, but the early damage was done. Michigan's Blake Corum rushed 21 times for 134 yards and two scores, while Donovan Edwards rushed for 104 yards and two more touchdowns on just six touches. The Wolverines finished with a gaudy 303 rushing yards. That was going to win them the game 10 times out of 10.

          The most impactful plays

          Let's walk back through the title game's ebb and flow by looking at the 10 plays that had the most impact on in-game win probability, per FPI.

          First quarter, 10:14 left: Donovan Edwards 41-yard touchdown run (+7.6% win probability for Michigan). The No. 1 question for Monday night's game was whether Washington, with its ultra-questionable run defense, could slow Michigan's rushing attack. In the first quarter, the answer was a resounding no. On the eighth play of the game, facing a second-and-14, Edwards evaded tackles, bounced to the outside and raced for the game's first points.

          First quarter, 2:44 left: J.J. McCarthy pass to Roman Wilson for 37 yards (+4.9%). After Washington drove for a field goal -- which required two key third-down conversions and ate up two timeouts -- Michigan quickly struck again. McCarthy threaded a gorgeous pass to Wilson for a huge catch-and-run to move the ball once again into UW territory. After an iffy pass fell incomplete, McCarthy handed the ball to Edwards again. Good things followed:

          First quarter, 2:23 left: Edwards 46-yard touchdown run (+7.8%).

          Late in the first quarter, Michigan led 14-3 with a win probability near 88%, per FPI.

          First quarter, 0:21 left: Blake Corum 59-yard run (+5.8). Washington's next drive quickly fizzled when Mike Sainristil made a shoestring tackle on Jalen McMillan and forced a three-and-out. And after a punt, Corum rather vociferously flipped the field again. He powered down the left sideline, and the first quarter ended with Michigan threatening to go up 21-3.

          Second quarter, 7:45 left: McCarthy incomplete to Wilson on fourth-and-2 (-4.1% for Michigan). Following Corum's huge run, Michigan had to settle for a 31-yard James Turner field goal and a 17-3 lead. It felt like a missed opportunity. Washington would turn the ball over on downs on its next drive, but Michigan went three-and-out. Washington returned the favor, and U-M appeared ready to pounce before Edefuan Ulofoshio's breakup of a pass to Wilson ended the Wolverines' drive.

          Second quarter, 0:42 left: Michael Penix Jr. to Jalen McMillan for a 3-yard touchdown (-8.0%). We officially had a game. After scoring three straight times to start the game, Michigan had begun to stall on offense. Washington took advantage, marching 61 yards in 11 plays and four minutes and eventually cutting the Wolverines' lead to 17-10 at the break. In-game win probability still favored Michigan (81%), but Washington's maturity and ability to weather a brutal early storm seemed to be tilting the game toward the Huskies.

          Third quarter, 15:00 left: Penix pass intercepted by Will Johnson (+9.0%). The Huskies immediately gave up ground with this Johnson pick.

          Washington would hold Michigan to a field goal, but that still made it a two-score game again at 20-10.

          Third quarter, 7:38 left: Corum stuffed for -1 yards on third-and-2 (-4.6%). After a Washington field goal cut the lead to 20-13, the Huskies presented themselves with a massive opportunity, stuffing Corum and getting the ball back. Unfortunately for them, they were only able to move the chains a couple of times before punting again.

          Third quarter, 5:30 left: McCarthy rushes for 22 yards on third-and-8 (+6.7%). Pinned inside their 10, the Wolverines dug out of a hole with a nice McCarthy scramble. They got another keeper from McCarthy before eventually punting from their 48. But they had successfully flipped the field and avoided a short-field situation for UW. The clock was also beginning to tilt in their favor.

          Fourth quarter, 9:33 left: McCarthy 41-yard pass to Colston Loveland (+5.3%). The game turned into a war of attrition, which is a nice way of saying it turned into a punt festival. Both teams punted on three straight drives, but with time quickly ticking away for UW, McCarthy threw an off-target dart to Loveland, and the tight end snared it and took off for a huge gain to the UW 30. Three plays later, Corum scored from 12 yards out to make it 27-13.

          Washington responded by driving near the U-M red zone, but on fourth-and-13 from the Michigan 30, Penix, pressured far more than he was used to, threw into double coverage, and Sainristil snared the pass and took it back 81 yards to set up the game-clinching score.

          Harbaugh's checklist is complete

          Nine years and 164 games after he was hired to restore pride and winning ways at his alma mater, Harbaugh has pulled off something few coaches actually can: the completion of his goals. The growth of the Michigan juggernaut was slow, steady and incredible. Rumors of Harbaugh's departure to the NFL are wafting around once again, and it's not hard to understand why: He has achieved something at Michigan that not even his coach and mentor Bo Schembechler could, and the cloud of NCAA investigations has not yet gone away.

          If he rides off into the NFL sunset, where NCAA sanctions can't hurt him, it makes sense. But even with the clouds of the spying scandal, Harbaugh has proved to be one of the most unique and successful coaches of his era. Be it investigations, losses to Ohio State or cold weather at Drake, he has overcome the obstacles blocking his path. Because of that, Michigan is a national champion for the first time in this century.