College Football Playoff championship: Michigan-Washington preview

Two first-time College Football Playoff finalists (and two future Big Ten mates). College football's winningest program against one of the West's original power programs. The best defense in the country against the most exciting offense. A former Super Bowl coach against an NAIA national champion. The Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies, both 14-0, will meet in Houston on Monday night for the 2023 College Football Playoff national title (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), and damned if this isn't a fascinating matchup in about a hundred different ways.

Michigan is favored for a reason, but Washington's path to an upset is clear. Here's everything you need to know about a delightful title-game matchup.

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The long droughts | Key injuries
QB breakdown
Top stars: Washington | Michigan
UW weaknesses | Michigan issues
Biggest questions | Projections

Long journeys

The 1990s were a while ago. We were stuck in the "'Titanic' has been the No. 1 movie for months, just as 'Candle in the Wind 1997' has been the No. 1 song" morass the last time Michigan won a national title, and when Washington last did it, Michael Jordan had only one ring and LeBron James was 7 years old.

In the years since those respective titles, both of these programs have been through a lot.

Michigan's 1997 co-title, shared with Nebraska, was itself the end of a long journey. After claiming 10 titles in the first half of the 20th century, the Wolverines had to wait 49 years to finally celebrate a successor to their 1948 title. The entire Bo Schembechler era had come and gone without one, but U-M finally scored a ring with the 12-0 campaign in 1997, complete with a Heisman win for Charles Woodson and a dramatic victory in the Rose Bowl.

The Wolverines hovered around college football's elite in the years that followed, ranking in the top five at some point during seven of the next 10 seasons and coming achingly close to a BCS championship bid in 2006. (Standing in the way: Ohio State.) But when Lloyd Carr retired after the 2007 season -- one remembered primarily for a famous loss to Appalachian State, not to mention a loss to Oregon that made U-M seem like an antique football program -- Michigan got lost in the wilderness.

Rich Rodriguez went just 15-22 in three seasons. Brady Hoke engineered an 11-2 surge in 2011, then went 20-18. After suffering zero losing seasons between 1969 and 2007, the Wolverines dealt with three in seven years. They beat Ohio State just once between 2003 and 2021.

Former Schembechler quarterback Jim Harbaugh came aboard in 2015, immediately restored Michigan's top-15 bona fides and came within a whisker of a Big Ten championship bid and possible CFP appearance in 2016. (Again, Ohio State got in the way.) But returns diminished for a bit, then everything cratered with a 2-4 campaign during the 2020 COVID season. Harbaugh took a pay cut to keep his job and refreshed his coaching staff considerably. It worked. The Wolverines beat Ohio State, won the Big Ten and made brief CFP appearances in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, they were college football's main character, maneuvering through two separate Harbaugh suspensions and the slow-motion rumbling of the fall's spygate scandal. On the field, however, they would not be distracted, taking a third league crown and finally winning a CFP game, a cathartic comeback victory over Alabama in the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential.

For Washington, the wait was even longer, the lows even lower. After sharing the 1991 title with Miami following a Rose Bowl romp over Michigan, the Huskies spent much of 1992 at No. 1 until late losses to Arizona, Washington State and Michigan (again in the Rose Bowl), plus a rumbling illegal benefits scandal surrounding star quarterback Billy Joe Hobert, sullied their repeat attempt.

Coach Don James resigned in protest the next summer following sanctions from the NCAA and Pac-10. His replacement, Jim Lambright, averaged a decent seven wins per season, then Rick Neuheisel came aboard in 1999 and pulled off a brilliant 11-1 campaign in 2000. But he faded from there, then was fired in 2003 following both recruiting violations and for taking part in an NCAA tournament pool. (God forbid.) Then everything collapsed. Keith Gilbertson and Tyrone Willingham proceeded to win just 18 games in six seasons, culminating in an 0-12 campaign in 2008. UW watched conference mate USC dominate the 2000s, then rival Oregon emerged as one the preeminent modern football programs at the turn of the 2010s.

The UW rejuvenation was slow but steady. Steve Sarkisian brought the Huskies back to the land of seven or eight wins before leaving for USC, then Chris Petersen won 32 games, with two Pac-12 titles and a CFP appearance, from 2016-18. After Petersen's 2019 retirement, the Huskies quickly collapsed to 4-8 under Jimmy Lake in 2021. But there was still lots of raw talent on the roster, and with some key transfers, new head man Kalen DeBoer -- poster child for "Hiring a coach who's been good at every job he's ever had seems like a smart idea" -- turned things around instantaneously. Washington is 25-2 since DeBoer and Indiana transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr. came to town.

Penix finished second in this season's Heisman voting and the Huskies have been the most clutch team of 2023, going 8-0 in one-score finishes and winning 10 straight games decided by 10 or fewer points, including Monday's Allstate Sugar Bowl against Texas.

Key injuries and absences

Michigan appears to be about as healthy as possible at the moment. Star guard Zak Zinter was lost for the season in the Ohio State game, of course, but others who were dealing with late-season injuries -- quarterback J.J. McCarthy, cornerback Will Johnson -- seem fine.

Meanwhile, while a number of Washington players -- star cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, tight end Devin Culp, left guard Nate Kalepo -- all left the Sugar Bowl injured, DeBoer told reporters they should all be ready to go.

Star running back Dillon Johnson, however, reaggravated a lingering foot issue late against Texas. During Saturday's national title media day, Johnson acknowledged he will not be 100% for the game, but that he was "ready to rock and roll." DeBoer said he expects Washington to use Johnson in full capacity and he'll be monitored as the game goes on.

The quarterbacks

Both Penix and McCarthy have been excellent when fully healthy, but they're excellent in very different ways.

Almost no one throws more or better deep balls than Penix. He throws 6.5 passes per game longer than 20 yards (second-most nationally, behind only SMU's Preston Stone), and despite the volume, he also completed 47% of them (13th) at 17.4 yards per attempt (18th). He has three absurdly good deep-ball receivers in Rome Odunze (17 deep catches for 612 yards and five touchdowns), Ja'Lynn Polk (13 for 542 and five) and, when healthy, Jalen McMillan (five for 187 and one). Michigan's defense is solid at defending these passes -- 44th in completion rate allowed, 26th in yards allowed per attempt -- but while Penix's accuracy isn't always as staggering as it was against Texas, that's a pretty big warning sign that you need to figure out how to keep him out of a rhythm.

Whatever ailments Penix was dealing with late in the regular season, it drastically affected his effectiveness. This week, there was a big push of revisionist "Penix should have won the Heisman!" talk, but the reason he didn't was that he was only a Heisman-level quarterback for half or two-thirds of the year.

Over his first six games, Penix was, as I have been writing all year, Joe Burrowian. He completed 72% of his passes at 10.3 yards per dropback, and he was on pace for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. But over the next six games, he completed 59% of his passes at 7.2 yards per dropback; his touchdown rate fell, his interception rate went up, and Washington had to rely on a physical run game and slightly improving defense to get by in loads of close games. McMillan's injury absence hurt, as did whatever might have been going on physically with Penix. (There were long rumors of a rib injury suffered against Oregon.)

That makes his late-year charge even cooler, though. He was good against Oregon (thanks to a big game from McMillan), and he was unbelievable against Texas (29-of-38, 430 yards, 2 TDs).

McCarthy's excellence has come in a completely different way. He doesn't make too many "Holy crap!" throws -- Penix has a Ph.D. in Visceral Thrills at this point -- but most of the time he pilots Michigan's controlled, physical offense really well.

When he gets a chance to show what he can do physically, he does it. He completes 49% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield (ninth), and his 7.6 yards per non-sack carry is excellent. But he throws only 2.5 of those deeper shots per game (108th), and while his legs were particularly useful in the Penn State game -- and in one specific burst late in the Rose Bowl -- he averages only 3.0 carries per game. The entire Michigan ethos is built around control instead of explosiveness, and while McCarthy isn't asked to do nearly as much as Penix, his No. 3 ranking in Total QBR is a pretty strong reminder that he's excellent at what he does.

McCarthy has thrown only one interception since an odd, three-INT dud against Bowling Green in September. For most of the year, his performances alternated between good and great, and two of his three worst games (per Total QBR) came late, when he was nursing an ankle injury.

People still seem to be shorting McCarthy's general awesomeness, thanks in part to a combination of this late fade and the fact that his raw stats (230-of-314, 2,851 yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs) aren't as impressive as those of most of the nation's other elite quarterbacks. If you track nothing but total yards, you probably aren't impressed. But -- allow me to pause for a moment and roll up a newspaper to bop you on the nose -- you shouldn't be tracking just total yards! It's 2024! There are better ways!

The samples are very different, but it probably isn't a coincidence that if you look at quarterbacks' raw QBR when their team's in-game win probability is under 50% (per FPI), the two national title game quarterbacks are No. 1 and No. 2 in the nation.

Quarterbacks when win probability is under 50% (per FPI):

• Penix: 72% completion rate, 15.4 yards per completion, 47.4% completions for first downs, two rushes for 17 yards, 96.0 raw QBR

• McCarthy: 78% completion rate, 11.8 yards per completion, 44.4% completions for first downs, three rushes for 36 yards, 95.5 raw QBR

(The rest of the top five in this category: LSU's Jayden Daniels, Florida State's Jordan Travis and Oregon's Bo Nix. Impressive company.)

Penix has had 78 such dropbacks from six games (the Huskies were indeed drama kings this season), while McCarthy had just 18 from two games: 12 versus Alabama and six when slightly down early against Penn State. In these brief moments, McCarthy revealed no real tendencies, throwing to six players -- go-tos Cornelius Johnson, Roman Wilson and tight end Colston Loveland, plus three others -- between two and four times. None of these passes traveled more than 20 yards downfield, and only two were thrown farther than 10 yards. The name of Michigan's game is indeed efficiency over explosiveness.

When in doubt, meanwhile, Penix looks deep quite often. And it works. It works really well throwing to one particular receiver.

Penix passing to targets with sub-50% win probability:

• Rome Odunze: 19-for-21 for 333 yards

• Ja'Lynn Polk: 13-for-21 for 268 yards

• Jalen McMillan: 4-for-7 for 57 yards

• Giles Jackson: 4-for-7 for 25 yards

• Dillon Johnson: 4-for-4 for 21 yards

• Devin Culp: 3-for-3 for 40 yards

• Jack Westover: 2-for-3 for 24 yards

• Others: 6-for-6 for 78 yards

Penix has also spread the ball around at times, but you're seeing that correctly: With the odds tilting against Washington, Penix has thrown to Odunze 21 times. Odunze has caught 19 of those passes for 333 yards. That's 17.5 yards per clutch completion and 15.6 yards per clutch target.

A lot of these passes were simple, safe, "get some yards on first-and-10" passes. But Odunze reeled in virtually every deeper shot, too. He is outstanding.

Washington's five best (non-QB) players

WR Rome Odunze (1,590 yards from scrimmage, 10 TDs). One of the Huskies' greatest strengths is the depth of their skill corps. They've got just about the most impressive No. 2 target in the country in Polk, they've got a high-efficiency slot man in McMillan, they've got a lead back in Johnson and they've got loads of role players, including tight end Westover. But they've also got the best, most well-rounded and maybe most clutch wideout in the country in Odunze. When in doubt, Rome's down there somewhere.

RB Dillon Johnson (1,328 yards from scrimmage, 16 TDs). In the last five games of the regular season, as the passing game grew less trustworthy, Johnson rushed 114 times for 683 yards (6.0 per carry) and eight touchdowns. The going was tougher against Texas' dominant run front (21 carries, 49 yards, two TDs), but Johnson's physicality has become a big piece of UW's identity. If he's limited by injury, UW's identity suffers.

WR Ja'Lynn Polk (1,153 yards from scrimmage, 10 TDs). You almost feel bad for Polk -- he'd be the best receiver on nearly every other team in the country. But like John Taylor to Odunze's Jerry Rice, he has come through repeatedly. He has seven 100-yard games, and it was Polk's beautiful, 77-yard catch and run on UW's opening possession that got the Sugar Bowl off and running.

LT Troy Fautanu (two sacks allowed, 1.0% blown run block rate). It feels like there should be more than one representative from Washington's Joe Moore Award-winning line on this list, but hey, skill corps guys get all the attention. Regardless, Fautanu and right tackle Roger Rosengarten have anchored a line that has barely allowed anyone to lay a finger on Penix. (And when they do let someone through, Penix dodges them and throws a dart downfield all the same.) The UW line isn't quite as strong in run-blocking, but it's been mostly good enough there, too.

DL Bralen Trice (9.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, 11 run stuffs). After a star turn in 2022, in which he delivered 13 tackles for loss, 9 sacks and 9 run stops, Trice struggled to match that production in 2023. Despite seeing his snap count rise by 45%, he has managed only 9.5 TFLs, seven sacks and 11 run stops. He was dynamite against Texas, however, sacking Quinn Ewers twice, pressuring him on six other occasions and forcing a fumble. If that version of Trice shows up in Houston, some of the mean words about UW's defense below are rendered moot.

Michigan's five best (non-QB) players

CB Will Johnson (three interceptions, three breakups, 6.4 QBR allowed). To rein in Washington's receiving corps, you need both depth and particular star power. Michigan might have it. In Johnson, they've got a No. 1 corner willing to take on all comers. Against Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. he allowed three catches (including a 44-yarder) but also picked off a pass. And against players not named Harrison, Johnson has allowed just 9-for-24 passing for 106 yards with two other picks. Throw in an excellent No. 2 in Josh Wallace (passes against him: 12-for-32 for 152 yards and two picks), and you've got as good a combination as one could hope for.

RB Blake Corum (1,228 yards from scrimmage, 26 TDs). He's not the same bouncy, explosive back he was during his 2021-22 breakout -- he averaged 6.5 yards per touch (including receptions) in 2021, 6.0 in 2022 and, after last season's late knee injury, 4.9 this year -- but Corum remains an efficient hustler who takes the yards his line gives him and dishes out punishment. And on Michigan's most important drive of the season, the game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter against Alabama, he was the guy taking a short fourth-and-2 pass and exploding upfield for 27 yards. In overtime, he was the guy flashing a younger Corum-era jump-cut, following his blockers perfectly and muscling into the end zone for what ended up the winning touchdown.

BLAKE CORUM COULD NOT BE STOPPED‼️

Michigan takes the lead in OT 👀 #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/FfeVQlHAAQ

— ESPN (@espn) January 2, 2024

C Drake Nugent (zero sacks allowed, 0.5% blown run block rate, one penalty). Michigan ranks fifth in stuff rate allowed, sixth in pressure rate allowed and eighth in offensive line penalties per game. A lot of those stats were obviously produced with Zak Zinter on the field, but the line mostly did its job with aplomb against Alabama, in part because Nugent's play in the middle is nearly flawless.

DB Mike Sainristil (five interceptions, seven breakups, 2.5 TFLs). A good nickelback is such a cheat code in modern college football, and Sainristil, a wide receiver until 2022, is one of the most aggressive nickels in the sport. He has allowed completions on only 13 of 30 targets as primary coverage guy -- granted, among the completions are passes of 69, 35, 34 and 33 yards, and he'll have his hands full with McMillan in the slot -- and he's just about Michigan's most disruptive defender, combining five interceptions and seven breakups with 2.5 TFLs, two forced fumbles and a run stuff. On a team built around safe efficiency, Sainristil is a much-needed wild card.

DE Braiden McGregor (nine TFLs, 4.5 sacks, seven run stuffs). The D-line had to be represented on this list, but you can really take your pick between a number of big guys. McGregor leads the team in TFLs and havoc plays -- TFLs, INTs, breakups or forced fumbles -- per snap (5.2%), but Jaylen Harrell is the most effective pass-rusher (his 20.0% pressure rate is beyond elite), Derrick Moore (who's more of an outside linebacker, I guess) and tackle Kenneth Grant lead the team in run stuffs and Josaiah Stewart splits the difference beautifully among all categories. The rotation is huge and effective.

Washington's three biggest statistical weaknesses

Run defense. The Huskies rank 121st out of 133 teams in rushing success rate allowed and 126th in stuff rate. Despite a solid pass defense, this renders the Huskies' defense terribly inefficient. They were lucky that Texas didn't lean more heavily on the run in the Sugar Bowl. Longhorns backs CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue rushed 18 times for 123 yards (6.8 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. They caught six passes for 84 yards too. Granted, Baxter and Blue also combined to fumble twice, and Washington fell on both loose balls. But considering the Huskies have forced just six fumbles all year (tied for 112th), it's hard to assign them too much credit for that.

If there's one thing we know, it's that Michigan won't forget to run the ball. The Wolverines ran 32 straight times against Penn State in early November, and if Washington can't force them to move to Plan B occasionally, this game will have very few possessions, and Penix and Co. might not see the ball very often.

Red zone defense. This can often correlate with shaky run defense. It certainly does for Washington. The Huskies allow opponents a 71% touchdown rate in the red zone (120th) and a 93% touchdown rate in goal-to-go situations (130th). When you're inefficient, you rely on forcing either field goals or turnovers to avoid taking on too much damage. UW is decent at the latter but dreadful at the former -- and they rank 63rd in points allowed per possession (2.1) and 44th in defensive SP+ because of it. I had to go back to 1950 to find a team that won a national title with a defense outside of the defensive SP+ top 30 (Oklahoma was 38th that year). The worst title defense in the last 73 years was Auburn's in 2010 (27th).

Granted, Auburn got superhuman quarterback play that season, and Washington's QB looked pretty superpowered himself last Monday.

Short-yardage offense. UW offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has been one of the nation's best, most enjoyable playcallers in 2023. He hasn't had to deal with too many short-yardage situations -- Washington is typically moving the chains before third down and scoring before it has to deploy its goal-line offense -- but he still hasn't solved short yardage. Washington's success rate on third- or fourth-and-1 or 2 is just 64%, 84th nationally. And the Huskies are only 56th in success rate within 3 yards of the goal line. It's an odd blind spot, and it hasn't cost them all that much, but aside from the incredible fourth-down end around to Odunze that clinched the win against Washington State, this has been a blind spot all the same.

Michigan's three biggest statistical weaknesses

Nothing but nibbles. Michigan's run game is steady and reliable -- the Wolverines are 36th in rushing success rate and fifth in stuff rate allowed; they never go backward -- but it doesn't really go anywhere, at least not quickly. Neither does the passing game. Only 45% of Michigan runs gain even 4 yards (97th), and only 12% of passes are thrown 20-plus yards downfield (107th).

The Wolverines are great at using compact formations to open horizontal space for the passing game -- McCarthy's two longest (non-deflected) completions against Alabama were thrown 5 and 2 yards downfield, respectively, but gained a combined 65 yards -- but this still isn't an explosive offense. Their 67 gains of 20-plus yards rank 38th, and their eight gains of 40-plus are tied for 111th.

McCarthy vs. pressure. Despite the fact that McCarthy almost never throws long, he still often takes a while to get the ball out of his hands, and that backfires occasionally in obvious pass situations. On third-and-7 or longer, he's faced pressure on 46% of dropbacks (75th) and taken sacks on 11% (85th).

Granted, aside from Trice's brilliance against Texas, Washington hasn't generated consistent pressure this season, and if McCarthy gets the pass off, he's devastating: Even with this pressure, he's averaging 8.9 yards per dropback on these third-and-longs (10th nationally) with a 74% completion rate (third). But he's at least a little bit vulnerable if the Huskies can get creative with their pass rush or Trice remains in fifth gear.

Uncontested passes. Overall, Michigan's pass defense is excellent. The Wolverines rank fourth in passing success rate allowed and third in yards per dropback, and while their pass rush doesn't have a single standout anchor, they rank fourth in pressure rate and seventh in sacks per dropback. (Those numbers obviously improved after Monday's incredible performance against sack-prone Alabama.)

The pressure is awfully important to the dominance, though. Michigan allows a paltry 1.7 yards per dropback (third nationally) when the QB is pressured but a more mortal 6.9 (21st) when he's not.

That could be an issue considering no one consistently pressures Penix. Washington ranks fifth in pressure rate allowed (23%) and second in sack rate allowed (2%). That means that Michigan's defensive backs might need to take matters into their own hands, but Wolverine defenders have contested only 28.4% of passes this year (71st) and allowed 5.2 yards per attempt on those passes (78th). Johnson and Wallace are awesome, and Sainristil is one hell of a ball hawk. But their job has also been pretty easy in 2023. It won't be Monday night.

Four key questions