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Bowl projections after Week 13: Matchups entering conference title games

Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire

Rivalry Week brought plenty of drama, amazing plays and fantastic finishes, but no seismic results that shook up the bowl picture.

Only three top 25 teams lost: No. 10 Louisville (to unranked Kentucky), No. 16 Oregon State (to No. 6 Oregon) and No. 19 Kansas State (to unranked Iowa State).

Elsewhere, while some teams reached the six-win mark for bowl eligibility, there still were slots to fill, which opened the door for James Madison and Jacksonville State, who are still transitioning to full FBS membership.

Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are here to sort out what Week 13's results mean for the entire bowl picture, making their projections for all 43 games, plus offering their takes on the CFP picture, the games they'd be most excited to see and the bowl matchup they didn't see coming at the start of the season.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship presented by AT&T
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Texas

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: Just when it looked like the College Football Playoff permutations could be thrown out of whack, there was a successful fourth-and-goal from the 31-yard line ... or a fourth-and-1 conversion from a team's own 29-yard line ... or a second-half comeback with a backup quarterback. Alas, there were major upsets to be had, yet Alabama, Washington and Florida State all remain in the same place they were at this time last week.

That's the case for all the real players except Ohio State, which -- short of a nearly implausible scenario -- is out of the hunt following its loss to Michigan.

The Power 5 championship games are as follows:

ACC: No. 4 Florida State (12-0) vs. No. 10 Louisville (10-2)

Big 12: No. 7 Texas (11-1) vs. No. 20 Oklahoma State (9-3)

Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan (12-0) vs. No. 17 Iowa (10-2)

Pac-12: No. 4 Washington (12-0) vs. No. 6 Oregon (11-1)

SEC: No. 1 Georgia (12-0) vs. No. 8 Alabama (11-1)

For Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State, their conference championship games should be straightforward: Win and you're in. If an undefeated Power 5 champion gets left out, the playoff would be a joke and rendered meaningless. It's not going to happen.

If one or more of those teams lose, however, things would start to get interesting -- especially if Texas wins the Big 12. Unlike last year when TCU lost in the Big 12 title game and still qualified for the playoff, no team is locked in. It's possible a team like Georgia or Michigan could lose and stay in, but it would require a chaotic championship weekend.

Schlabach: My top four teams remain unchanged heading into conference championship week after all the top contenders -- except No. 2 Ohio State -- held serve this past week.

The future is clear for two-time defending national champion Georgia: Defeat No. 8 Alabama in Saturday's SEC championship game in Atlanta, and the Bulldogs will be back in the CFP again. The Bulldogs defeated Georgia Tech 31-23 on the road to complete their third straight unbeaten regular season. They won their 29th straight game despite playing without star tight end Brock Bowers and receivers Ladd McConkey and Rara Thomas.

If the Bulldogs fall to the Crimson Tide in the SEC championship game, they might need some help to get in the CFP selection committee's top four.

Michigan is my No. 2 seed after it took down the Buckeyes 30-24 at the Big House on Saturday, its third straight victory in The Game. The Wolverines play No. 17 Iowa in this week's Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis. If Michigan defeats the Hawkeyes to win a third straight conference title, it should be a lock for the CFP.

Oregon is my No. 3 seed after it defeated rival Oregon State 31-7 on Friday night. The Ducks have won six games in a row since falling 36-33 at Washington on Oct. 14. Oregon will have an opportunity to avenge that loss in Friday's Pac-12 championship game (8 p.m. ET, ABC) in Las Vegas. The winner of the Pac-12 title game will undoubtedly be in the CFP, and I'm projecting that the Ducks will come out on top.

Texas is my fourth seed after it throttled Texas Tech 57-7 at home Friday night. The Longhorns have won six games in a row and look like a complete team. They'll play No. 20 Oklahoma State in Saturday's Big 12 championship game (noon ET, ABC). Texas might need some help to reach the top four even with a victory over the Pokes.

I'm projecting that No. 10 Louisville upsets No. 5 Florida State in Saturday's ACC championship game (8 p.m. ET, ABC) to end the Seminoles' 18-game winning streak. (I admittedly feel less confident in that prediction after the Cardinals fell to Kentucky 38-31 on Saturday.) The Seminoles rallied from a 12-0 deficit against rival Florida to win 24-15 on the road Saturday night. Quarterback Tate Rodemaker threw for 134 yards in his first start in place of injured star Jordan Travis. If the Seminoles knock off the Cardinals, they'll be in the CFP as an unbeaten Power 5 league champion.


New Year's Six

Friday, Dec. 29

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Florida State

Saturday, Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Tulane

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 1

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Washington vs. Penn State


Favorite matchups

Bonagura: For an Oregon-Alabama matchup to happen, both schools would have to lose in their conference championship games, so I must concede it would lose some luster. However, just think of how poetic a final season it would be for the Pac-12 if it had both a playoff team (Washington) and, in this make-believe scenario, a win against Alabama in a New Year's Six game. I'll always believe the Pac-12's demise was a product, as much as the obvious administrative failures, of bad timing. Had the conference been as relevant at the top over the last five years as it was this year, it wouldn't have fallen apart.

Schlabach: Unbeaten Liberty and two-loss Troy would be an entertaining matchup in the Birmingham Bowl. The Flames finished 12-0 in coach Jamey Chadwell's first season by beating UTEP 42-28 on the road Saturday. They will play New Mexico State in Friday's Conference USA championship game. If Liberty wins that game, and Tulane loses to SMU in Saturday's AAC title game (4 p.m. ET, ABC), Liberty could still reach a New Year's Six bowl game. Troy has won nine in a row under Jon Sumrall, who is one of the up-and-coming coaches in FBS and has been linked with several Power 5 jobs. The Trojans play Appalachian State the Sun Belt title game Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).


Bowl season

Saturday, Dec. 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. Howard
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. Howard

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Jacksonville State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Louisiana

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCLA vs. UNLV
Schlabach: UCLA vs. UNLV

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCF vs. Cal
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Cal

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Old Dominion


Fill in the blanks: Before the season, I never would have thought I'd have ??? in the ??? Bowl.

Bonagura: Before the season, I never would have thought I'd have Missouri in a New Year's Six bowl. The definition of mediocre the past eight years, Mizzou's rise in Eli Drinkwitz's fourth year seemingly came out of nowhere.

Schlabach: I didn't think I'd have Northwestern in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. I thought the Wildcats' season would be in disarray after the university fired longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald on July 11 following an investigation into hazing in the program. The Wildcats were already coming off a 1-11 season and didn't seem to be all that talented. But give coach David Braun a lot of credit for keeping things intact and changing the trajectory of the program. The Wildcats went 7-5 and tied for second in the Big Ten West. After dropping three of their first five games, they've won four of the past five. Their only loss in that span was a 10-7 defeat at Iowa. No wonder Northwestern promoted Braun from interim coach to be Fitzgerald's replacement.


Thursday, Dec. 21

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia State vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Marshall vs. San José State

Friday, Dec. 22

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: South Florida vs. James Madison

Saturday, Dec. 23

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Troy
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Troy

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. Northern Illinois

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Wyoming

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio vs. San José State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Utah State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Utah
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Utah

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rice vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Rice vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Duke vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Ohio

Servpro First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. New Mexico State
Schlabach: UCF vs. Syracuse

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. West Virginia

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. SMU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Memphis

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oregon State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M

Thursday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boston College vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: NC State vs. Oklahoma State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Arizona

Friday, Dec. 29

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: NC State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. USC
Schlabach: Duke vs. USC

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. UTSA

Saturday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. LSU

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Ole Miss