Zach Arnett's firing Monday at Mississippi State will go down as a performance-related change, but timing, finances and opportunity also played into the move.
Arnett logged only 11 games as the Bulldogs' coach, after being elevated to the role following Mike Leach's sudden passing in December. Although the selection of Arnett, the team's defensive coordinator, to replace Leach made sense at the time, Mississippi State also was going through an athletic director transition, and would hire its new AD, Zac Selmon, almost exactly one month after promoting Arnett. A cost-friendly contract made a move easier for Mississippi State, and the team's recent struggles after a decent start, which included a win over Arizona, accelerated the decision. Arnett finishes 5-6 overall (4-6 this season).
Sources said Mississippi State had been poised to fire Arnett immediately after the Egg Bowl in Week 12, but several factors -- Saturday's 51-10 loss to Texas A&M, which also dumped its coach Jimbo Fisher in a rapidly warming coaching carousel -- resulted in Monday's decision. Mississippi State must upset Ole Miss on Thanksgiving to avoid its worst SEC record (1-7) since 2006.
Arnett is a talented, well-respected coach who should get another opportunity to lead a program, perhaps even right away at San Diego State, where he served as an assistant from 2011 to 2019. The 37-year-old also could be one of the most coveted defensive coordinator candidates -- hello, USC -- this winter. Less than one season isn't enough to evaluate a coach, but Arnett can draw some lessons from his brief run at Mississippi State, which shouldn't have veered from the offensive identity Leach established in Starkville.
Mississippi State is a challenging job in a league that will only become more competitive with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma in 2024. But coaches can win there, and any SEC job brings added appeal. Dan Mullen had three AP top-20 finishes, and Mullen, Joe Moorhead and Leach all had teams that finished ranked in the final College Football Playoff standings. Mississippi State needs a coach who can develop recruits and be aggressive in the transfer market (FBS and junior college), while not letting Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss take all the oxygen in the state. League or regional ties likely will matter, and Moorhead's two-year tenure is a reminder that the fit truly matters.
Here's a look at who Selmon, a former Wake Forest tight end who spent most of his administrative career at Oklahoma, could target for the role.
Candidates
Tulane coach Willie Fritz: The 63-year-old is one of the more respected coaches in the sport and has never shied away from jobs with some baked-in challenges. Fritz led Tulane to a No. 9 finish and a Cotton Bowl victory in 2022. He now has the Green Wave at 8-1 and poised for another possible New Year's Six bowl. He knows the region because of his current role but also previous roles at Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State, and boasts a 205-115 overall mark as a college coach. After nearly landing the Georgia Tech job last year, Fritz likely has one major move left in his career and could see Mississippi State as a natural landing spot.
Troy coach Jon Sumrall: He has quickly become one of the top Group of 5 coaches, and also has SEC ties as a defensive assistant for both Kentucky and Ole Miss. Sumrall led Troy to 12 wins and a Sun Belt championship in his debut season, winning league coach of the year honors last fall. The Trojans are 8-2 this year with a chance to defend their championship. Sumrall, 41, spent 2018 coaching linebackers at Ole Miss before joining Kentucky's staff, where he became co-defensive coordinator in 2021. He could maintain the defensive foundation Arnett set in Starkville, while also bringing a fresh approach on offense. The Alabama native knows the region extremely well.
Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell: He's 41-6 since the start of the 2020 season at both Coastal Carolina and Liberty, which is 10-0 in Chadwell's debut season. The Tennessee native has spent almost all of his career in the South, including the 2012 season at Delta State in Mississippi, which went 3-7 under his watch. Chadwell, 46, has won everywhere else, though, and boasts a 108-57 overall record as a college coach. He would bring a clear identity to Mississippi State, especially with a distinct spread-option offense filled with RPOs. The only knock on Chadwell is a lack of any Power 5 experience (head coach or assistant), but he's certainly ready to move up.
SMU coach Rhett Lashlee: The 40-year-old played quarterback at Arkansas and knows the region and league, after quickly ascending to become Auburn's offensive coordinator under Gus Malzahn at age 29. He helped Auburn reach the national championship game in his first season, but then rebooted his career following the 2016 campaign, logging coordinator stints at UConn, SMU and Miami, before returning to lead SMU. Lashlee is 15-8 in his second season with the Mustangs, who are challenging for their first AAC title and a possible New Year's Six bowl berth. Although SMU is bound for the ACC in 2024, Lashlee could be tempted by an SEC return. His offense would give Mississippi State a clear identity.
UTSA coach Jeff Traylor: He might be the only candidate who has real crossover with the Texas A&M search, and likely would target the A&M job first. But Traylor's accomplishments at UTSA and as a state champion high school coach in Texas make him appealing for a number of jobs in the region. The 55-year-old is 37-13 at UTSA, leading the team to consecutive Conference USA championships and winning coach of the year honors in both 2021 and 2022. The Roadrunners are 6-0 in their first season in the AAC. An East Texas native, Traylor would help Mississippi State extend its recruiting efforts into the Lone Star State. He also has some SEC experience as an Arkansas assistant in 2018 and 2019.
James Madison coach Curt Cignetti: Like Fritz, Cignetti is a highly respected veteran coach who has spent much of his career in college football's lower divisions but seems ready for a major opportunity later in life. The 62-year-old is 51-8 at James Madison, which boasts a 10-0 record and a No. 18 AP ranking as ESPN's "College GameDay" visits this week. Cignetti is 118-34 overall at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Elon and James Madison, which moved into the FBS last fall. But some forget he also has SEC experience as Nick Saban's first Alabama recruiting coordinator and wide receivers coach from 2007 to 2010. Cignetti helped lay the foundation for the Alabama dynasty, but he's mostly attached to the Mid-Atlantic region and might have a background too similar to Moorhead's.
Dan Mullen: The coach with the most consistent success at Mississippi State since the Jackie Sherrill era is available, working as a game and studio analyst for ESPN. Mullen, who went 69-46 with the Bulldogs before leaving for Florida, understands better than anyone the approach needed to win in Starkville. But would he want to go back? How would he deal with recruiting changes and the increased importance of the transfer portal and NIL? Selmon also might want to put his own stamp on the program with his own hire, rather than going back to a familiar name. But Mullen is only 51 and should return to coaching at some point. Mississippi State should at least consider the possibility.
Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz: Mississippi State isn't expected to consider many coordinators in its search, but Diaz certainly would be an exception. He would bring previous head-coaching experience from Miami, where he went 21-15 with a No. 22 AP finish before being dumped when Mario Cristobal became available. Although Diaz didn't break through at Miami, the team's uneven play before and after his arrival underscores that bigger problems exist at the U. He has done an excellent job at Penn State, which ranks in the top five in most defensive categories this season. Diaz, 49, also twice served as Mississippi State's defensive coordinator, most recently in 2015, and also has coordinator stints at Miami, Texas, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee. He should soon get another head-coaching chance.
Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby: He and Selmon overlapped at Oklahoma during the 2022 season, Lebby's first as OU's offensive coordinator. They both have roots with the OU program, where Lebby played and where Selmon's father and uncles became part of the program's lore. Lebby, 39, also spent time in Mississippi as Ole Miss' offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021 under Kiffin. He oversaw a top-10 offense in 2021, as the Rebels finished No. 11 nationally and reached the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma has averaged 36.7 points per game (13th nationally) since the start of the 2022 season. Lebby would bring a proven offensive system to Starkville, as well as knowledge of the recruiting realm in the state and the area.
Georgia co-defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann: Mississippi State is focused on those with head-coaching experience, but Schumann could enter the radar given his outstanding work at Georgia. The 33-year-old worked at Alabama as a student assistant before joining Saban's staff as a graduate assistant from 2011 to 2014. He landed his first on-field role under Kirby Smart at Georgia in 2016 and has been part of the team's rise as a two-time national champion. Dan Lanning's success in his first head-coaching opportunity after serving as Georgia's DC could help Schumann's chances, too. The Georgia native knows the SEC well, but also has only worked at programs with more resources and tradition than Mississippi State.
Colorado coach Deion Sanders: I didn't list Coach Prime on my list of Texas A&M candidates and think he likely will be back in Boulder for Year 2 next fall. But he would bring a new level of excitement and interest to Mississippi State, as well as familiarity with the program after launching his college coaching career at nearby Jackson State. Sanders, 56, went 27-6 at Jackson State and twice won SWAC Coach of the Year honors. He has engineered improvement at Colorado despite the team's current slide. Sanders brings distinct elements with him to any job, which Mississippi State would have to embrace, but few other realistic candidates would bring more attention to the program. His success in the transfer portal at Colorado would be appealing.