College Football Playoff rankings reaction and 12-team bracket

The second of six College Football Playoff rankings featured the same top eight teams as last week, but it's only a matter of time before the selection committee wakes everyone up with a shakeup. For now, No. 1 Ohio State's resume continues to trump all, including Georgia's first statement win, against No. 14 Mizzou.

The Buckeyes still have two top-20 wins, as No. 10 Penn State and No. 20 Notre Dame continue to impress the committee, as do Ohio State's top playmakers and back-to-back road wins against respectable Big Ten opponents with winning records. Georgia, meanwhile, has just one ranked win, and it didn't help the Bulldogs that Florida is now a four-loss team after falling to Arkansas.

The committee also continued to honor head-to-head results at the top, as No. 5 Washington is still a notch above No. 6 Oregon, the top one-loss team, and No. 7 Texas remains ahead of No. 8 Alabama, which it beat in Tuscaloosa. At No. 19, LSU is the committee's top three-loss team, which is important to both Alabama and Florida State as a common opponent and a boost to their respective resumes. It will also help Ole Miss if the Rebels somehow find a way to beat Georgia on Saturday.

Jump to: What would a 12-team CFP look like?

Which could upend everything you thought you knew about this ho-hum ranking.

Week 11 is when it starts to get interesting, as three games could make it much more difficult for the committee next week.

Here's a look at which games can rearrange the committee's comfortable Top 25, ranked from the most to least impactful:

1. No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State
This will be Michigan's first game against a ranked opponent, which could give the Wolverines the same top-10 win as No. 1 Ohio State and potentially boost them to the No. 1 or No. 2 spot. It's also a chance for Penn State, though, to create a three-way tie in the Big Ten East division, should Michigan beat Ohio State in the regular-season finale. They'd each have one loss -- to each other.

If Michigan beats PSU on Saturday, it will have a 70% chance to reach the playoff and a 56% chance to win the division, according to ESPN Analytics. If Michigan loses, its playoff chances will drop to 18% while Penn State's will rise to 42%. This is an elimination game for Penn State, and the Nittany Lions would still need some help with a win. Their nonconference opponents include West Virginia, Delaware and UMass.

One thing that changed in the latest ranking is No. 22 Iowa showing up, which gives Penn State a much-needed win against a CFP Top 25 opponent. Michigan does not play Iowa during the regular season. Of the Big Ten's big three, nobody needs a statement win more than the Wolverines.

2. No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia
This is where things could get interesting, because while Ole Miss is a long shot to win the SEC thanks to its loss to Alabama, if it beats Georgia and runs the table, the committee will at least consider the 11-1 Rebels. Ole Miss would have the best win in the country -- on the road against the committee's No. 2 team -- plus two other Top 25 wins against No. 19 LSU and No. 23 Tulane. And if Georgia were to go on and win the SEC? Ole Miss would be sitting there with a win against the SEC champ without even winning its division.

To win the West, Ole Miss needs Alabama to lose twice, which seems highly unlikely as the Tide play two unranked SEC opponents (Kentucky and Auburn) and ESPN's Football Power Index gives Bama at least an 80% chance to win each game. This game is No. 2 on the list, though, because even if Georgia loses, the Bulldogs will still be leading the SEC East and on track to reach the conference championship game. A Georgia loss, though, would open the door for Washington to crack the top four for the first time this season. If, of course, the Huskies can handle Utah ...

3. No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington
Washington's win against Oregon is currently the best in the country, and it still hasn't been enough for the team to make the top four. Saturday's win against USC didn't help much, either, but a home victory against No. 18 Utah could -- especially with some chaos above. Washington enters Week 11 at No. 2 in ESPN's strength of record metric, trailing only Ohio State. The committee was skeptical, though, about Washington's performances in wins against Arizona State and Stanford, teams that are a combined 5-13. Washington has appeared in the CFP top four only three times -- all in 2016, when the Huskies finished the season at No. 4 and made the playoff. While a loss to Utah would be devastating, it's not an elimination game for the Huskies, who could still face Oregon again in the Pac-12 championship game. If either of those teams finishes as a one-loss conference champ, the league could return to the top four for the first time since 2016 -- and the last time for the Pac-12 as we know it.

Or, that fourth spot could go to an 11-1 Ole Miss team that beat the SEC champs.

See? Don't sleep on Week 11. -- Heather Dinich

What a 12-team playoff would look like

The top eight in the CFP selection committee rankings remained unchanged, so there weren't any changes among the four Power 5 conference champions who would receive byes in the first round. No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten), No. 2 Georgia (SEC), No. 4 Florida State (ACC) and No. 5 Washington (Pac-12) would all be watching in the opening round.

No. 3 Michigan wouldn't get a first-round bye because the Buckeyes are the highest-ranked Big Ten team.

Oklahoma suffered its second defeat last week, 27-24 at Oklahoma State, and dropped to No. 17 in the committee rankings. The Sooners were replaced by No. 11 Louisville in the bracket, adding a second ACC team to the field.

With Oregon and Washington moving from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten and Texas going from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2024, those two newly expanded leagues would have nine of the 12 teams in the CFP.

Here's how the first-round matchups would look:

No. 23 Tulane at No. 3 Michigan

A first-round game that remains unchanged from last week. The Wolverines would probably be a sizable favorite to beat the Green Wave in the Big House, and an early December contest in Ann Arbor, Michigan, might be fun when it comes to the weather.

The Green Wave's lone loss was 37-20 against Ole Miss at home (the game was closer than the score would indicate). Tulane didn't look great in its two most recent victories, 30-28 at Rice and 13-10 at East Carolina. But Air Force's surprising 23-3 loss to Army at home last week solidified Tulane's position as the top team from a Group of Five conference.

Given what has transpired at Michigan over the past several weeks, there would probably be a lot of college football fans around the country rooting for the Green Wave.

No. 11 Louisville at No. 6 Oregon

It could certainly be argued that the Ducks look like the most complete team in the Pac-12, even after they fell 36-33 at Washington on Oct. 14. Since that loss, they have rolled Washington State (38-24), Utah (35-6) and California (63-19). The offense has been prolific under quarterback Bo Nix, and Dan Lanning's defense looks much better than Washington's right now.

Louisville's Jeff Brohm has done remarkable work in his first season coaching his alma mater, guiding the Cardinals to an 8-1 record. The lone blemish was a surprising 38-21 loss at Pittsburgh, which came a week after the Cardinals upset Notre Dame 33-20 at home. The defense hasn't allowed a touchdown in its past two games.

The Cardinals and Ducks have never met on the football field. A trip to Eugene, Oregon, wouldn't be easy for Louisville.

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Texas

It would be a matchup of two of the sport's blue bloods that would have finally turned their corner under their respective coaches -- Penn State's James Franklin and Texas' Steve Sarkisian.

Amazingly, the teams have met only five times in their storied histories, with the Nittany Lions recording a win in the most recent meeting, 38-15 in the 1997 Fiesta Bowl. Penn State trailed 12-7 at halftime but pulled away in the second half by running for 330 yards. Nittany Lions coach Joe Paterno's team improved to 6-0 in the Fiesta Bowl.

This is the potential fun of an expanded CFP: It would be Penn State's first trip to Austin, Texas, in 34 years. The Nittany Lions haven't played there since a 16-12 victory on Sept. 30, 1989.

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Alabama

Alas, this is one of the potential pitfalls of an expanded CFP: a rematch of conference foes that already played in the regular season. The Crimson Tide defeated the Rebels 24-10 at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Sept. 23. Alabama trailed 7-6 at the half but limited the Rebels to just 3-of-14 on third down and had five sacks to pull away.

It was Alabama's eighth straight victory in a lopsided series. Ole Miss has won only two of the past 20 meetings (the Tide vacated three of its victories because of NCAA sanctions; the Rebels had to vacate one). Alabama leads the all-time series 55-10-2. Ole Miss' last victory in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, was 43-37 in 2015.

Anytime you can get Nick Saban and his former pupil Lane Kiffin together it should be fun. Get your popcorn ready, especially if you root for the Tide. -- Mark Schlabach