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Bowl projections after Week 10: Predicted matchups for all 43 games

Oregon's Evan Williams celebrates after recovering a fumble during the Ducks' rout of Cal. Troy Wayrynen/USA TODAY Sports

The top eight teams in the College Football Playoff rankings all won, albeit with varying ease and against opponents of varying strength.

That means the eye test comes into play in terms of trying to figure out what four teams will make the playoff and who solidified their standing for a New Year's Six game. What wins were the most impressive? Georgia hanging on at home to beat Missouri? Alabama winning at home over LSU? Washington's wild win over Caleb Williams and USC? Michigan and Oregon rolling over Purdue and Cal, respectively?

Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are here to sort out what Week 10's results mean for the entire bowl picture, making their projections for all 43 games, plus offering their takes on the CFP picture, teams that helped their cause and the games they'd be most excited to see.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship presented by AT&T
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Florida State

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: After the first College Football Playoff rankings were released last week, it was tempting to adjust the bowl projections using that information. However, it's still worth noting that these are mostly an attempt at projecting what things will look like at the end of the season, while the rankings represent how the committee evaluated the teams to this point.

So, even though Ohio State topped the first rankings, the Buckeyes continue to be on the outside looking in for my projections. Setting aside the objectively hilarious (for unaffected parties) sign-stealing scandal going on in Ann Arbor, Michigan has been the most dominant team this season. And from a playoff perspective, the most likely scenario is that it's either the Wolverines or Ohio State getting in from the Big Ten -- though you could drum up a set of circumstances where both get in.

From there, it's pretty simple. Georgia is still the obvious choice from the SEC, and the same goes for Florida State from the ACC. From the Pac-12, undefeated Washington is in the same boat, but one-loss Oregon would nearly be assured of a playoff spot if it wins out and avenges its loss to UW in the conference title game.

Schlabach: I made one notable change to my top four, replacing Washington with Oregon, even though the Huskies defeated the Ducks 36-33 at home Oct. 14. I think Oregon has looked like the more complete team since then, and it might be more equipped to handle the stretch run because of its defense. Two-time defending national champion Georgia remains No. 1, followed by Michigan, Oregon and Florida State.

Washington has looked only so-so the past three games with closer-than-expected victories over Arizona State (15-7) and Stanford (42-33) and a track meet win at USC (52-42). The Huskies surrendered 515 yards to the Trojans. I don't know if Washington is good enough on defense to remain unbeaten in its three-game finish to the regular season: home against No. 18 Utah, at No. 16 Oregon State and home against rival Washington State in the Apple Cup. Oregon's regular-season finish is a little more manageable: home against USC, at Arizona State and home against rival Oregon State.

Georgia won the first game of its three-game SEC gauntlet, posting its 26th consecutive victory, 30-21 over No. 12 Missouri. Up next is another home game, against No. 10 Ole Miss, followed by road contests at No. 17 Tennessee and surging Georgia Tech. Florida State didn't look great without its star receivers, but it pulled away from Pittsburgh for a 24-7 win on the road. Michigan gave up more than 10 points for the first time this season but still walloped Purdue, 41-13.

Ohio State might be the No. 1 team in the CFP selection committee's rankings, but I have them at No. 5. I just don't think the Buckeyes are good enough to defeat the Wolverines at the Big House in their regular-season finale.


New Year's Six

Friday, Dec. 29

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Texas

Saturday, Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ole Miss vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Penn State

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 1

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Tulane


Favorite matchups

Bonagura: If you're into nostalgia, it's hard to top Miami vs. Nebraska in the Pinstripe Bowl, even it's a solemn reminder about how far these two once-proud programs have fallen over the years. Nebraska had won five of six before a surprising loss to a bad Michigan State team this week. Miami is already bowl-eligible but has a tough remaining stretch with Florida State and Louisville the next two weeks before ending at Boston College.

Schlabach: I switched up a couple of my New Year's Six projections after Notre Dame and Oklahoma lost Saturday. A Cotton Bowl matchup between former Alabama offensive coordinators Steve Sarkisian (Texas) and Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss) would be fun to watch. The Rebels are just 1-4 against the Longhorns, but they did win the last matchup, 44-23 in Austin, Texas, in 2013.


Bowl season

Saturday, Dec. 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Marshall vs. San José State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Eastern Michigan

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCLA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Air Force

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Houston vs. Washington State

Monday, Dec. 18

Bahamas Bowl
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. Appalachian State

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State

Thursday, Dec. 21

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Alabama vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Texas State vs. San José State

Friday, Dec. 22

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Troy
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana

Saturday, Dec. 23

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Troy

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. Northern Illinois

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. UNLV

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Utah State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. USC

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. New Mexico State
Schlabach: Rice vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Rice
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. UTSA

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. West Virginia


Team that helped its cause

Bonagura: One of the big winners from the first playoff rankings was Tulane as the top-ranked Group of 5 team. It got better for the Green Wave on Saturday, when Air Force was stunned by Army for its first loss of the season. That leaves just one undefeated team (Liberty) left in the Group of 5 that Tulane will have to contend with for the New Year's Six bid. The Wave's 13-10 win against East Carolina wasn't convincing, but at this point the W's are all that matter.

Schlabach: If beating rival Oklahoma 27-24 in the last Bedlam rivalry game for the foreseeable future wasn't enough for Oklahoma State to celebrate, the Pokes also put themselves in contention for a New Year's Six bowl game. With games left against new Big 12 members UCF (road), Houston (road) and BYU (home), Oklahoma State has a chance to finish 10-2 and play its way into the Big 12 championship game. That would be remarkable for a team that lost to South Alabama 33-7 at home Sept. 16.


Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boston College vs. SMU
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: NC State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Duke vs. Arizona

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M

Thursday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Miami vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Kansas

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Utah

Friday, Dec. 29

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. LSU
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Clemson vs. USC
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oregon State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Maryland

Saturday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Florida
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Auburn

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. LSU

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Missouri