College football Week 8 buzz: Improvements, disapointments, Penn State-Ohio State keys, bets, more

As we enter Week 8, we've also crossed the midway point of the 2023 season. While we can take stock of some one-loss teams or have an idea of who might win the Heisman and reach the College Football Playoff, we've got plenty of football to play.

After Week 7's Oregon-Washington showdown, the Ducks join Alabama, Texas and USC as one-loss teams that face an added hurdle to cracking the top four of the CFP rankings. And this week, either Ohio State or Penn State will join them and fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.

ESPN insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg push into the second half of the season looking at the keys to the Nittany Lions-Buckeyes matchup, break down the most improved and most disappointing teams since the start of the season and answer other pressing questions.

Jump to a section:
Biggest improvement
Biggest disappointment
Best one-loss credentials
PSU-OSU matchups | What is Jimbo's future?
Upset picks | Emptying the notebook

Who has been the most improved team since Week 1?

Dinich: Two-loss Clemson has fallen off the national radar, but the Tigers are quietly making strides and have won back-to-back games against Syracuse and Wake Forest. Since Week 1, Clemson is allowing its opponents 134.6 fewer yards per game and has increased its scoring margin by 12.8 points per game, according to ESPN's Stats & Information Group. While the Tigers aren't in the College Football Playoff race, they can still impact it. Clemson hosts Notre Dame on Nov. 4, and Ohio State needs the Irish to keep winning for the Buckeyes' win in South Bend to continue to boost its résumé. Clemson also hosts undefeated North Carolina on Nov. 18 and could derail any long shot CFP hopes the Tar Heels have. At the very least, if Clemson continues to win, it will help Florida State's playoff résumé because the Noles' 31-24 September win in Death Valley will resonate with the selection committee.

Rittenberg: I'm going with another set of Tigers. LSU has really jumped out since its second-half meltdown against Florida State in Orlando. The third quarter against FSU is the last time LSU didn't score in the third or fourth quarters, and the Tigers hold a 152-77 edge in second-half scoring since their opener. No one is stopping quarterback Jayden Daniels and LSU, which ranks third nationally in scoring and second in both yards per game and yards per play. "As long as their quarterback doesn't get hurt, there's not anybody that's going to stop them," an SEC coach told me. "They are as good offensively as anybody I've ever seen." The defense obviously has some challenges, especially in the secondary, but performed well last week against Auburn. LSU doesn't need to be elite on defense, either. "That quarterback, their receivers, there's not a weak point," an SEC defensive coordinator said. "Their receivers are all good and all different, and the quarterback makes them go, even when s--- breaks down."

Dinich: And it has broken down (See: Ole Miss). It was nice to see Harold Perkins Jr. on Saturday flying around and making plays against Auburn. Lemme extract us from the FSU-LSU lovefest for a minute, though, to shine a light on ... Neal Brown and West Virginia!? At this time last year, the Mountaineers were 2-3. They're now 4-2, having come a long way since their season-opening 38-15 loss at Penn State. They're holding opponents to 159.6 fewer yards per game while increasing their own production by 87 yards per game. I'll never forget Neal Brown being mad at Big 12 media days about being picked by the media to finish last. "We won't finish where we're predicted to finish," he said. Statement made!

Rittenberg: I've got another one. Miami ... of Ohio. Coach Chuck Martin's team knows to take a knee when victory is secure and has won six straight after opening with a 38-3 loss to the other Miami. Martin told me his team was actually overconfident going to the U -- "Our kids' mindset was: 'We're gonna kick their ass,'" he said -- and then shifted its mentality to simply winning. In Week 3, the RedHawks beat Cincinnati, in overtime, to claim the Victory Bell for the first time since 2005. "It was everything," Martin said. "We know they're a talented team, we hadn't beat them in forever, and then how we did it, it was a wild game, start to finish, so many big moments." Miami's typically strong defense has met the standard, while the offense, which lagged a bit last year as quarterback Brett Gabbert fought a collarbone injury, is rising. Gabbert has 1,455 pass yards and 14 touchdowns, and three receivers have 18 or more receptions. "Brett really makes us go," Martin told me. "Great thrower, really good pocket presence, makes plays out of the pocket even though he's not really known as a runner. We lost two of our top three wideouts, but we've got a couple of young guys and a couple of transfers playing well, so improved play on the perimeter, for sure."

Who has been the most disappointing team since Week 1?

Rittenberg: Chalk it up to recency bias, but I'm going with USC after seeing it suffer its worst loss as an AP top-10 team (48-20 to Notre Dame) since 1995. The setback had been coming and, as colleague Paolo Uggetti noted, USC had all of its flaws exposed on a miserable night. Although the defense has been better in several ways, it busts too often, and now the offense seems vulnerable, especially up front. "They did a great job with five-man pressures," a Pac-12 defensive coordinator said of Notre Dame, which had six sacks, 11 tackles for loss and three quarterback hurries. "Their length at DB also caused issues for the USC wide receivers." Although USC made sense as the preseason Pac-12 favorite, a lot of folks wondered if it would end up as the third- or fourth-best team, which looks to be the case. "They're just a good college football team," a Pac-12 coach said. "If they have Caleb [Williams playing well], they're going to be great. If they don't, I don't know what they look like."

Dinich: USC is the right answer, but ... does the SEC count? Look, Georgia just lost tight end Brock Bowers to an injury, and I've struggled internally with having it at the top spot before that. Alabama keeps finding ways to win, but the reality is this team is a shell of Nick Saban's best title teams. Yes, LSU has improved, but it lost two games before the calendar even hit October. Georgia might very well still three-peat, and Alabama might finish in the top four, but as we sit here today in this snapshot, the Tide have been one of the more disappointing teams because we have seen the same mistakes as a year ago -- only without Bryce Young to help mask them. Alabama is No. 106 in the country in penalties. The Tide are No. 96 with 3.81 yards per rush. They're No. 132 in sacks per pass attempt (19.1%). And they are No. 104 in first downs per game (18.1).

Which is the best one-loss team: Oregon, Alabama or Texas? Who has the best path to the CFP?

Dinich: Oregon wins statistically and on film just about everywhere, but Alabama does have the best defense of the three -- though that wasn't the case against Texas on Sept. 9. Bottom line: If these teams are all playing each other on a given Saturday, I'm going with the Ducks because of Bo Nix and Bucky Irving. According to ESPN's FPI, all three are favored to win each of their remaining games. Texas has the best path to the top four because the rest of the schedule is winnable, it will be hard for Oklahoma to beat its rival twice if they meet again in the conference title game, and because the selection committee will like the Longhorns' true road win at Alabama -- especially if the Tide win the SEC.

Rittenberg: I agree. Oregon is the most complete team of the three, as the Ducks really don't have an obvious weakness. Nix is the most trustworthy quarterback of the three options and plays behind a stout offensive line and beside a very good back in Irving. "They're really effective when it comes to being able to be on their block just long enough for the running back to make his cut," a Pac-12 defensive coordinator told me. "They never have to road grade you out of there. The best guy up front is the center [Jackson Powers-Johnson]." In terms of path to the playoff, though, you're the expert, but Texas has an easier road to reach its conference title game with only one defeat.

Dinich: It becomes even easier for the committee to justify if the Longhorns win the Big 12 by beating the Sooners and avenging that regular-season loss in the process. It would be hard for the committee to leave Texas out, which should be concerning for the other Power 5 conference champs. This thing hasn't expanded yet -- at least one Power 5 champion will be excluded if this scenario plays out. Who will it be?

Rittenberg: I can tell you who it shouldn't be: the Pac-12 champ. The usual chatter is starting about the Pac-12 beating up on each other and falling out of CFP contention again, but that was before the Pac-12 established itself as the best and deepest league. I think we could have a two-loss CFP participant for the first time, coming out of the Pac-12, as long as it's the right team with the right profile. Neither of us picked Alabama, and I don't think the Tide will make it through without suffering another loss, perhaps even this week to Tennessee, although an SEC coach told me the Tide's defense will do enough against the Vols' run game and quarterback Joe Milton III, who "is just OK right now."

What will be the X factor to the Penn State-Ohio State game?

Rittenberg: I'll give you two of them: a defender on each side. First, Penn State linebacker Abdul Carter, a player who had a lot of attention entering the season and has been relatively quiet with 15 tackles, a sack, two tackles for loss and an interception. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz told me Carter's understanding of where he fits in the system has improved. "Some weeks, that's going to show up in the stat line and some weeks, it's not. He's also been able to branch out. He's now able to play the [weakside] position for us and the [middle linebacker] position, in addition to his role that he plays for us on third down. The more ways he can help and be versatile like that, the more ways he can help us."

Another player who could be poised to break out is Ohio State defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr., who will be facing a solid PSU offensive front. "He's got a lot of power," a Big Ten offensive coordinator told me. "Those low center of bodies, short guys, are sometimes the hardest guys to block because they can control their bodies a little bit better because they're lower. It's like a running back."

Dinich: Speaking of running backs (no really) ... James Franklin told me this week that both teams' running games are going to be critical Saturday, along with Penn State's attempt to generate more explosive plays and win the turnover battle on the road.

"If you look at the analytics on their team and our team and how we're constructed, I think the run game is going to be a big factor in this game," he said. "The other one is explosive plays. We haven't had a ton of them on offense, and they're doing a great job of limiting them."

I asked Franklin what Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is doing differently this year that has made the Buckeyes more successful in limiting those big gains.

"They're doing less," Franklin said. "And the stuff that they're doing, they're doing it well is probably the biggest thing. What happens is, the more you do can be difficult on the offense, but it also lends to mistakes. ... They're just doing less of his package he's done in the past and doing it well."

Rittenberg: That's spot-on from Franklin about Knowles, although a Big Ten offensive coordinator told me Ohio State is still being aggressive in sending its linebackers through the A-gaps and using man coverage. "Anytime it's a critical down, you're on that side of the field, he's gonna bring all-out pressure, so you've got to be ready for that," the coach said.

Diaz is also known for his aggressiveness, and Penn State leads the FBS in sacks per game (4.5) and ranks fifth in tackles for loss per game (8.5). I asked him if he's more or less tempted to take chances with so much individual talent on defense.

"We don't feel that we take chances when we do what we do," Diaz said. "The idea of sending extra rushers, it's a great debate, it depends on who you're playing against. But if an offense knows where everyone's going to be on every play, no matter how good you are, they usually have a chance to get you schemed up. You have to still make the players on the other side mentally unsure."

Dinich: One PSU defender Franklin pointed out to me who is quietly having an excellent season is senior cornerback Johnny Dixon. "Because of everyone's respect for Kalen King, Johnny is getting most of the action and playing at a really high level," Franklin said. "On top of that, we have two corners who are tough guys and will tackle. That's something that has really helped our defense. Not only can those two guys cover -- and they're going to need to against a really good receiving corps this week -- but they're also willing to come up and be physical, which isn't always the case at that position."

Will the QB injury give Texas A&M an out not to move on from Jimbo Fisher?

Rittenberg: Fisher's contract is still the biggest albatross in Aggieland, but the uncertainty around what Fisher and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino might have done with Conner Weigman, who was off to a promising start with 979 passing yards and nine touchdowns before his injury, likely helps the coach's chances to survive another disappointing season. I also loved a line a coaching agent said about Texas A&M this week: "They've got more dollars than sense." But A&M also needs a plan if it intends to exit a very expensive situation. The emergence of Duke coach Mike Elko, a former Texas A&M defensive coordinator under Fisher (2018 to 2021) who won ACC Coach of the Year honors in his debut season last fall and has the Blue Devils ranked No. 16, gives the Aggies a potential prime target.

Dinich: Last month, I asked Aggies AD Ross Bjork directly if it was possible to buy out Fisher's contract if Texas A&M suffered another losing season. He declined to answer, saying instead he wanted to "stay positive." One Power 5 coach this season told me he thinks Fisher is "an awesome coach" when his talent matches the culture, and the elite recruiting classes Fisher has brought in have the Aggies trending in the right direction. "That place to me is nothing but upside," the coach said. At some point, though, it has to start to consistently translate into wins against ranked opponents.

What's your upset pick for Week 7?

Rittenberg: Illinois (+2.5) over Wisconsin. I actually won last week's pick (Missouri over Kentucky) after talking myself out of another one that hit (Florida over South Carolina). Illinois comes off of a big win at Maryland, Wisconsin is reeling after losing starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai and Illini coach Bret Bielema would love to win consecutive games against his former team. Give me Illinois DT Jer'Zhan Newton and the Illini in a low-scoring game.

Dinich: BYU (+4.5) over Texas Tech. The Cougars have lost two of their past three games, but will bounce back on homecoming against the Red Raiders. BYU will win the turnover battle, which it has excelled at all season (No. 35 with seven lost), and will continue to capitalize in the red zone (70% touchdown rate, 18 of 20 on scoring opportunities).

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week/what's the best thing you heard this week?

Dinich:

• Florida State coach Mike Norvell told me this week that how the undefeated Noles fare against Duke's defensive line will be critical, along with their ability to create some explosive plays. Duke is No. 22 in the country with only 44 missed tackles and No. 11 allowing only 4.44 yards per play.

"They do a good job of staying on top of routes," he said. "They do a great job of setting edges within their defense, but whether it's man or zone coverage, they're gonna play everything top-down. They're a really good tackling defense. All 11 guys -- regardless of who's being forced into the run fits -- very few missed tackles show up on film, which lets them play at a high level and keep everything in front of them."

Rittenberg:

• James Madison is no stranger to winning and stopping the run, which often go hand in hand. From coach Curt Cignetti's debut in 2019 until last season, the Dukes went 33-5 and allowed an average of 104 rushing yards. They would have ranked No. 2 nationally in 2022, as a reclassifying team in the FBS. This season, JMU leads the nation in yards per rush against at 1.49 -- UCLA is second at 2.29 -- and ranks seventh in rushing yards allowed per game (28.7). The Dukes are 6-0 entering tonight's game at Marshall, and are just outside the top 25.

"Some people don't even try to run it against us," Cignetti told me. "The front has played tremendously. They're very physical and fast, but they play with poise."

Cignetti anticipated a strong line before the season, but had some concerns about depth. JMU rotates only six linemen but has gotten a lot from its core of Jalen Green, Mikail Kamara, James Carpenter and Jamree Kromah, who have 20 sacks, 39.5 tackles for loss, four forced fumbles and nine quarterback hurries combined.

"We've had guys like Jalen Green step up," Cignetti said. "He was a part-time role player up until this year, and he's having a big season in terms of sacks and TFLs. Carpenter is a great player. He's just tenacious and crafty, quick and athletic, people can't block him. They're tough and gritty, so hopefully these last six games, we keep them on the field."

• Tennessee's defense has thrived in sacks and tackles for loss since coordinator Tim Banks' arrival, and this year is no exception, as the Vols rank No. 3 in both categories (four sacks per game, 8.7 TFLs per game). The difference is Tennessee also excels against the run (20th nationally) and in both total defense (17th) and points allowed (17th) this season.

The Vols have allowed an SEC-low 11 touchdowns and just two in the past seven quarters.

"We get a lot of fanfare about the pass rush, but we tell those guys: 'You have to earn the right to be able to rush the passer,'" Banks told me. "Our guys have bought into that. They know we have to win the early downs to give ourselves a chance to truly go and rush the quarterbacks, which all these guys want to do. We're never going to sacrifice our run defense."

Tennessee has 13 defenders with multiple tackles for loss entering Saturday's game at Alabama. End James Pearce Jr. and linebacker Aaron Beasley both rank in the top five in the SEC, and Pearce is fifth nationally with one sack per game. Alabama has struggled to protect quarterback Jalen Milroe, ranking 126th nationally in sacks allowed (4.43 per game).

"Those guys are super big," Banks said of Alabama's offensive linemen. "We need to get on the edges and not run down the middle with guys. We've got to use our speed and agility to try to create some edges and hopefully affect the quarterback."