NFL draft lore is filled with quarterback debates of No. 1 vs. No. 2.
Last year, the comparisons between Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud echoed through the season. When they became the first two picks, it marked the ninth time in NFL history that quarterbacks have been taken with the top two choices.
The trend began back in 1971 with Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning, and it spanned generations to Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf in 1998. It popped up, memorably, when Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were picked in 2012.
Entering the 2023 college football season, scouts overwhelmingly predicted to ESPN this week that it's a safe bet that USC junior Caleb Williams and UNC redshirt sophomore Drake Maye will go No. 1 and No. 2 in the NFL draft. In that order.
ESPN spoke to a half-dozen scouts and a former NFL head coach, Marc Trestman, to get an early read on the 2023 quarterback class. There will be showcase games early, as Williams debuts in 2023 this Saturday against San Jose State. Maye's Tar Heels open in Week 1 against South Carolina and former top NFL prospect Spencer Rattler.
A few takeaways from the scouts before we dive into the details of the tandem that projects to be atop of what promises to be a rich quarterback class.
Calling it a debate right now between Williams and Maye would be a stretch, as it was unanimous among the scouts that they liked Williams better.
The best indicator of the talent of Williams and Maye is that multiple scouts said they'd have picked both of them No. 1 this year, ahead of the class that included Young, Stroud and Anthony Richardson.
The debate over which quarterback will emerge as the third quarterback off the board is going to be one of the most fun and open-ended of the season. It's a deep class, and Trestman, who has been evaluating quarterbacks for The 33rd Team, summed it up this way: "If you love quarterback play, I think it's going to be a special year. From Florida State to Washington and Oregon to Texas, all hours on a Saturday afternoon, you're going to see some really good quarterback play and fun guys to watch."
Could a flurry of them rise to threaten the record six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 1983 draft? It's way too early for that. For now, though, we'll focus on the top two. And after games kick off this weekend, we'll see if anyone can catch them.
How do Williams and Maye stack up?
It'd be fun to frame this as a debate between Williams and Maye. But right now, there's an unanimous pecking order among the scouts ESPN reached out to. They are a pair up top, and they are tiered.
The real debate is where Williams ranks among top quarterback prospects of the last generation. His style is so improvisational and his body type a bit different than the old-school paradigm, which makes comparisons tricky. But scouts are fired up.
"His ability to create is special," a veteran scout said. "That's the name of the game. He's as exciting of a player that I can remember in nearly two decades scouting."
So how far ahead of Maye is Williams? Right now, it's safe to say comfortably. But there are also the variables of two dozen games and thousands of snaps that can change that.
For many of the scouts, there was a sizable distance between them. One scout made an interesting point that for this to become a debate, it would depend on a coach and system.
Williams is listed as 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, which means he's likely to officially measure at 6-foot even. But he's not small, which is a big distinction, as he has a thick lower body that multiple scouts compared to Russell Wilson's.
Maye is 6-foot-4, 230 pounds and comes more out of the classic Bill Parcells throwback quarterback paradigm. He's more of a classic pocket passer, while Williams' improvisational gusto has defined the early part of his career.
The scout who saw the battle as closest predicted it could go this way: "I think it'll be a battle, to be honest with you. You have to think about, it's not talent, it's what the coaches are comfortable with. They are obviously two completely different styles, so it's going to depend on what you want. (Maye) is a more polished player and more (traditional) NFL style. Caleb has the ability to make an off-schedule throw and make something out of nothing."
Is some type of Patrick Mahomes comparison valid for Williams?
Trestman coordinated offenses and coached quarterbacks in the NFL or college for more than two decades. He called Williams "the ultimate playmaker" and a "special talent."
"He can drop back and plant and throw, he can escape the pocket and make plays," Trestman said. "He's got a really quick release. He's got all the arm slots."
Trestman evoked Mahomes as a comparison, but only in style. That comparison comes because of off-platform throws, arm angles and improv genius that kept coming up with scouts. (Williams' QBR when outside the pocket was the ninth highest in the country last year at 91.1).
All of the scouts ESPN spoke to think highly of Williams but don't want to anoint him or link him to the best player in football.
"I think it's scary to compare to Patrick Mahomes," a scout said. "When he was a prospect, he was unfairly treated as more of a project. This dude, and maybe it's because of what happened with Mahomes, I don't think he's viewed that way at all."
A lot of scouts predicted a rush of Mahomes comparisons and were rightfully skeptical of throwing those types of expectations on Williams.
"A lot will give you Patrick Mahomes -- yeah, cool, I see it," said another scout. "That's fair. I just think Patrick Mahomes is a unicorn. There's an argument to be said that Caleb is more athletic than Mahomes. Could he be potentially better? I don't know. We get in these superlatives and clickbait. Slow down. Let's just say he's the best quarterback prospect in the draft and evaluate him fairly."
The athlete part is intriguing to evaluators, as Williams also rushed for 10 touchdowns last year. He became just the seventh player in FBS history to throw for more than 40 touchdowns and rush for 10.
If 'Who's No. 1?' isn't a valid debate, then what is?
To start, where will Williams rank among top quarterback prospects the past two decades. Some project him in a group with Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence. Others are happy to just place him atop this class.
There was little debate on these two quarterbacks compared to the quarterbacks who were picked No. 1 and No. 2 last year. Nearly every scout ESPN spoke to said they'd take both Williams and Maye over Young and Stroud.
So that led a few scouts to pose an interesting question -- what if a team with either a young quarterback who was picked high in the draft or an established quarterback who gets hurt ends up with the No. 1 or No. 2 pick? Would teams feel compelled to take Williams or Maye, even if they are already heavily invested in the position?
"If Caleb is in last year's draft, he's the No. 1 pick," a veteran scout said. "So your answer is right there. It's easier to say that than do it, when you talk about the finances and having a guy on the roster with a huge signing bonus."
Added another: "Whoever has that No. 1 pick, I think they're going to take [Caleb]. No matter who you are. I don't know who wouldn't take him."
What more do scouts want to see from Williams?
Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022, led USC to an 11-3 record and finished with 42 touchdowns and just five interceptions, so there's not much.
"This is the nitpicking of nitpicks, but there's times he holds onto the ball a little longer than I would like," the scout said. "It's like when you watch Patrick Mahomes -- and I'm not saying he's him -- and you are screaming, 'Throw the ball away!' Then suddenly he throws an 80-yard touchdown.
"Generally speaking, the holding onto the ball a little bit longer than he needs to in an effort to make the big play is a small thing. Take the 7 yards and live to see another day."
So much of Williams' best work comes off platform and through scrambling that there's a curiosity about his ability to execute more succinctly.
"USC's offensive line wasn't giving him much time last year," said another scout. "I'd like to see some real NFL throws -- three steps and anticipating that this is going to be open. With that being said. He threw for something like 50 touchdowns, so I'm nitpicking, obviously.
"Last year he was holding the ball and making plays with his legs and arm, keeping plays alive. In the NFL you don't have much time with that."
A final critique from a third scout: "I'd like to see more timing and anticipation throws, more putting the ball to a spot. Throwing a guy open instead of running around like in the schoolyard and throwing the ball down the field. I'd like to see a three-step drop, bam! A five-step drop, bam, a skinny post. I want to see that stuff."
What makes Maye special?
Multiple scouts mentioned that in most years, Maye would make a fine No. 1 overall pick. He has the size, mechanics and pedigree, as his father was also a UNC quarterback and threw for more than 3,400 yards and had a cup of coffee in the NFL.
The most interesting part about Maye was that essentially a year ago, he was in a battle for the starting job at North Carolina. He narrowly beat out Jacolby Criswell, who has since transferred to Arkansas, and has rocketed to notoriety.
Maye threw for 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions last year, finishing the season with 4,321 yards. He completed 66.2% of his passes and led the Tar Heels to a 9-1 start before UNC dropped its final four games. His 45 combined touchdowns (38 passing, 7 rushing) were the most by a freshman in ACC history.
"I think the arm talent, combined with size and instincts, is what separates him from a lot of guys," a scout said. "For a young player, he's so far along and has so many tools. What's unique about him is the height and vision to see the whole field and obviously the arm talent to make all the throws.
"He plays really aggressively from the pocket. What he's really good at is seeing the rush and, for a big guy, he can really move around and is athletic enough to create on his own."
Last year, Maye needed that athleticism. UNC did one of the worst jobs protecting the quarterback of any team in college football, finishing No. 101 in the country by allowing 40 sacks.
He was pressured on an astounding 37.3% of his dropbacks last year, the 11th-highest rate in the country per ESPN Stats & Information research. That unit's improvement -- and the eligibility of star transfer receiver Tez Walker -- will go a long way in determining if Maye can lead UNC to the school's first ACC title since 1980.
"He just sort of plays under duress and is really productive under duress," the scout said. "They don't protect him as well as other places, so you see him under duress and he makes plays. That enhances him at our level."
Some of the Maye draft momentum came from his pro day, when he threw to former teammate and current Indianapolis Colts rookie Josh Downs.
"He looked like he'd added 15 pounds since the regular season ended; he looked like a guy with a Justin Herbert-kind of build," said a scout who was at the pro day. "I feel like his throwing at that pro day will help him a lot. Josh didn't have to slow up for a football. It was because of Drake. That's one of those things that's going to propel him."
What more could we see from Maye?
Trestman pulled a recent comparison when scouting Maye. He noted that he's already more accurate and has better mechanics and mobility than Will Levis. (Levis was drafted in the second round this year.)
Still, for a player with just one full season of playing, that's already a jump start. Maye had been committed to Alabama before flipping to UNC, so the talent and trajectory aren't a surprise.
"The game appears really easy and slow for him," Trestman said. "I think just looking at it, he needs to continue to improve his lower-end mechanics. Sometimes, his accuracy can be impacted by his legs and his lower body."
A lot of what scouts want to see from Maye will come with more experience. NFL scouts are curious to see his adjustment from Phil Longo's spread offense with wide splits to a more conventional college offense under first-year coordinator Chip Lindsey.
"I think he flashes anticipation, but you'd like to see more evidence of it," a scout said. "That's across the board with most college quarterbacks, but in this offense in particular he'll have a chance to showcase that.
"He can play quicker, working through it. Seeing the field. His eyes could be quicker. That'll come with time. But he's a pretty clean prospect."